Maldives moves further away from India: Parliamentary poll trends give more power to pro-China president Mohamed Muizzu

Maldives moves further away from India: Parliamentary poll trends give more power to pro-China president Mohamed Muizzu

NEW DELHI: In a major boost for Maldives president Mohamed Muizzu, early result trends of the parliamentary elections that were held on Sunday showed his ruling People’s National Congress (PNC) take a commanding lead over the opposition, including the India-friendly Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP).

The vote is seen as a crucial test for Muizzu’s plan to press ahead with closer economic and defence cooperation with China, and diverging from traditional ally India.

It must be noted that the parliamentary election is not to elect the President, but the results will determine whether Muizzu gets the political muscle to push forward pro-China policies.

Election chief Fuad Thaufeeq said around 73% of the 2,84,000 eligible voters had cast their ballots to elect 93 members of the Maldivian parliament – known as Majlis — for a five-year term. Full results are expected late Sunday or early Monday.

As per the latest official figures, the PNC has won 50 out of the 93 seats in the 20th People’s Majlis, winning majority in the upcoming parliament. Parliament majority is reached by half the seats – meaning 47 seats, and a super majority can be reached by three-fourth of seats, amounting to 70.

A freer hand for Muizzu: What it means for India

This month, as campaigning for the parliamentary elections was in full swing, Muizzu had awarded high-profile infrastructure contracts to Chinese state-owned companies. His administration is also in the process of sending home a garrison of 89 Indian troops who operate reconnaissance aircraft gifted by New Delhi to patrol the Maldives’ vast maritime borders.

The current parliament, dominated by the pro-India Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) of Muizzu’s immediate predecessor Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, has sought to stymie his efforts to realign the archipelago’s diplomacy.

“Geopolitics is very much in the background as parties campaign for votes in Sunday’s election,” a senior aide of Muizzu told AFP, asking not to be named.

“He came to power on a promise to send back Indian troops and he is working on it. The parliament has not been cooperating with him since he came to power.”

If the result trends are anything to go by, then Muizzu is likely to have an easier time pressing ahead with his pro-China policies, which may jeopardise India’s security interests in the region.

India Out campaign

Muizzu, who came to power late last year, ran his election campaign on the theme “India out”, accusing his predecessor Solih of compromising national sovereignty by giving India too much influence.

Relations strained further when Indian social media activists started a boycott campaign of Maldives tourism. That was in retaliation for three Maldivian deputy ministers making derogatory statements about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for raising the idea of promoting tourism in Lakshadweep, India’s own string of islands similar to the Maldives.

According to recent Maldives government statistics, the number of Indian tourists has fallen, dropping that country from being the top source of foreign visitors to No. 6.

Muizzu visited China earlier this year and negotiated an increase in the number of tourists and inbound flights from China.

Last month, however, Muizzu appeared to be extending an olive branch, when he acknowledged India’s financial support to Male and said “India will continue to remain the Maldives’ closest ally”. At the close of last year, the Maldives owes India around $400.9 million.

India has so far adopted a restrained approach and downplayed the strained ties. Asked about New Delhi-Male relations after Muizzu’s election, external affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar had said neighbours need each other. “History and geography are very powerful forces. There is no escape from that,” he had said.

Beijing, which stepped up aid to the Maldives significantly and inked several pacts for infrastructure projects after Muizzu came to power, is also watching the Maldives election closely against the backdrop of its Indian Ocean push and Male’s strategic significance.

(With inputs from agencies)

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