Poll analysis: Politicians follow as voters drift to right

The issue of immigration has once again reached a new height, rising by 15 percentage points to 41pc of respondents reporting it in their top two priorities for the country to deal with.

To put this into context, this is 17 points higher than the immediate aftermath of the Dublin riots. Reflective of that shift in focus, there is also a 13-point increase and a 55pc majority who cite the issue of immigration to be more important than that of the rise of the far right.

It has evidently become mainstream, all the while posing a bigger risk to mainstream parties. In our poll, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are now down to a collective 35pc. This is the lowest combined total we have ever had for the two parties. Independents have been by far the greatest benificiaries of this.

It is in this context also that we can understand how Sinn Féin has jumped three points to 29pc — the party’s highest total since January, checking what had become a sharp decline. While all the usual caveats apply, these gains can be viewed in the context of its response to the new EU Migration and Asylum Pact.

That Sinn Féin has been drifting to the right on the issue for some time is no secret and is certainly known among closer observers of politics. However, it was the party’s response to the EU asylum pact that drew the most ire and therefore attention on this repositioning, with many drawing similarities with the rhetoric that fuelled Brexit.

Sinn Féin’s vote is principally a working-class one, and while anti-immigration attitudes are not the sole preserve of the working classes, these voters tend to be more likely to shift voting preferences in the early stages of anti-immigration politics. It stands to reason the party has won some of these voters back.

The later stage of this crisis has ­typically led to de-politicisation strategies. The EU Migration and Asylum Pact is a classic of the genre. While, albeit, marginally more people support than oppose it, one in three selected the “don’t know” option, indicating a significant degree of persuadability. It reminds one of the referendums last March when large numbers were undecided before they swung against the proposals rapidly in the final week.

We can break this question down according to whether one is more concerned with immigration or with the far-right as a proxy for attitudes towards the issue in general.

Those concerned about immigration are far more likely to oppose the pact. By a margin of 45pc to 22pc, they are against it. In contrast, those concerned with the rise of the far right support the pact by 54pc to 11pc.

It should be clear that this is not a ­liberal, pro-refugee piece of legislation at EU level. It has been denounced by more than 100 human rights organisations such as Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, the International Rescue Committee and the Irish Refugee Council.

Collectively, they argue that it would lead to greater suffering, less protection and human rights violations. It should be understood as a consequence of immigration dominating political discourse in Europe for almost a decade and politicians ranging from centre-left to the centre-right attempting to depoliticise the issue by appealing to anti-immigration sentiment. Unlike other major EU bills, there was no applause or jubilation on its passing.

As our poll shows, the public are broadly in favour of its individual components from fast-tracking to repatriation of refugees to safe countries. It will undoubtedly lead to a fall in asylum numbers, particularly for Ireland.

However, voters tend to take their cues from prominent politicians, and this uncertainty presents an opportunity. This quote from Michael McDowell, in an interview after losing his seat at the 2007 general election, is informative: “There are some issues, if I was minded to in the morning, on which I could get 10pc or 12pc of in the next Dáil… like if I made immigration an issue… And I am not tempted to do it because I think it would be a fairly nasty political enterprise. But you could do it.”

How it feeds into the general election remains to be seen. Our current poll shows that in spite of a lowest-ever result for FF/FG, the most popular coalition option is Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Independents.

Of course, a lot can change. The European elections next month will almost certainly have an impact. If we think back to the 2019 European elections, climate change had surged in prominence in the run-up, with the Green Party accruing significant benefits that they carried through to the general election.

While climate change remains a top issue for voters at the European level, this time their number one issue is likely to be immigration. While we may not know exactly how things will change, it seems quite likely that there will be significant volatility in party politics.

Kevin Cunningham is managing director of Ireland Thinks and lectures in politics at TU Dublin

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