PM Modi in BJP bastion Karnataka: Check party's blockbuster record in 2019, 2014 Lok Sabha elections

Prime Minister Narendra Modi waves at supporters during an election campaign rally for Lok Sabha polls in Uttara Kannada, Karnataka, on April 28,

For the Bharatiya Janata Party and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, elections in Karnataka are a prestige battle this Lok Sabha election. Karnataka is the most important state for the BJP in south India as it’s the only state that has held power in the past. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to address four back-to-back rallies in the North Karnataka region in Belagavi, Uttara Kannada, Davanagere and Ballari on Sunday, April 28.

The phase 1 polling was held in 14 Lok Sabha seats out of 28 in Karnataka on April 26. The other 14 seats that will go to polls on May 7 are Bagalkot, Belgaum, Bidar, Bijapur, Chikkodi, Davanagere, Dharwad, Kalaburagi, Haveri, Ballari, Koppal, Raichur, Shimoga, and Uttara Kannada.

The BJP’s performance in the Lok Sabha elections in Karnataka has always been exceptional. It is the only state in the south where BJP’s hold has been strong. In the 2019 elections, the BJP had won unilaterally on 25 out of 28 seats in the state. The Congress won one seat.

While the BJP once again faces the challenge of repeating its performance like the last election, the Congress is trying to save its existence.

In Karnataka, if Vokkaliga and Lingayat communities come together on one platform, they can bring a big upheaval in the politics of Karnataka. The BJP has also had to suffer the consequences of this in the assembly elections.

While Lingayats have the largest population in Karnataka, the Vokkaliga community is in second place. JDS chief HD Deve Gowda and Congress state president DK Shivakumar belong to the Vokkaliga community.

The election will be a straight fight between the ruling Congress and the BJP-JD(S) combine, unlike the assembly elections in May last year which witnessed a triangular contest among the three parties.

Having scored a thumping victory in the assembly elections, the Congress also appears determined to put up a strong show.

“Its alliance partner JD(S) is fighting to remain politically relevant, after the assembly poll drubbing,” a political analyst told news agency PTI.

JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy from Mandya, his brother-in-law and noted cardiologist CN Manjunath from Bangalore Rural on a BJP ticket, erstwhile Mysuru royal family scion Yaduveer Krishnadatta Chamaraja Wadiyar from Mysore, also from the BJP, and deputy chief minister DK Shivakumar’s brother and MP DK Suresh of Congress from Bangalore Rural, were among the prominent candidates in the fray in the first phase.

The election is also seen as a kind of a “litmus test” for state BJP president BY Vijayendra, who has the onerous task of helping the party retain its supremacy in the Lok Sabha elections.

Ensuring a BJP sweep is paramount for the son of veteran leader BS Yediyurappa, to consolidate his position and silence critics who have questioned his selection for the post, overlooking seniors and seasoned hands.

The ruling Congress is mostly banking on the implementation of its populist five guarantee schemes. The BJP and JD(S) seem to leverage the “Modi factor” to the hilt.

BJP’s recent Lok Sabha election performance

In 2019, the BJP made significant strides in Karnataka, securing 25 seats with a notable vote share of 51.2 per cent, marking its best performance in terms of both seat count and vote percentage. The Congress party, JD(S), and Independent candidates clinched one seat each. This contrasted with the BJP’s previous performances, having secured 17 and 19 seats in the 2014 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections, respectively. In the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP secured 18 seats, while the Congress managed only eight, and the JD(S) emerged victorious in two constituencies.

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