Pencalonan semula Najib risiko kepada Umno, kata penganalisis

© Provided by MalaysiaNow

Penganalisis politik memberikan amaran sebarang langkah yang diambil bekas perdana menteri, Najib Razak untuk dicalonkan semula pada Pilihan Raya Umum ke-15 (PRU15) bakal menyebabkan Umno berisiko berdepan pilihan raya kecil di Pekan, sekali gus mencacatkan usaha parti itu mendapatkan sebanyak mungkin kerusi, selain memberi implikasi negatif kepada negara.

Mujibu Abd Muis dari Universiti Teknologi Mara (UiTM) berkata, pencalonan  Najib mempertahankan kerusi Pekan itu harus dilihat dari sudut undang-undang, memandangkan beliau sudahpun disabitkan bersalah terhadap tujuh pertuduhan pecah amanah, salah guna kedudukan dan pengubahan wang haram dana SRC International.

“Sekiranya Najib tidak dapat mengubah keputusan dan tidak mendapat pengampunan diraja, maka ada kebarangkalian plihan raya kecil perlu diadakan semula sekiranya Najib berjaya mempertahankan kerusi Pekan pada PRU15,” kata pensyarah sains politik itu kepada MalaysiaNow.

“Walaupun Umno yakin boleh menang kerusi Pekan, dalam konteks hendak menjadi kerajaan, Umno harus mendapat jumlah kerusi yang jitu untuk membentuk kerajaan. Pengundian semula (kerusi Pekan) tidak akan membantu Umno.”

Pada Julai tahun lepas, Najib dijatuhi hukuman penjara 12 tahun dan denda RM10 juta oleh Hakim Mahkamah Tinggi Mohd Nazlan Ghazali.

Dalam satu temu bual bersama Reuters baru-baru ini, Najib menyatakan hasrat untuk dicalonkan semula pada PRU15.

Pada pilihan raya umum 2018, beberapa ahli politik dibatalkan pencalonan atau tidak mencalonkan diri berikutan kes mahkamah yang sedang dihadapi.

Antaranya bekas ahli Parlimen Pandan, Rafizi Ramli yang ketika itu berhadapan perbicaraan di bawah Akta Bank dan Institusi-Institusi Kewangan (BAFIA), dan bekas ahli Parlimen Batu, Chua Tian Chang yang hilang kelayakan bertanding apabila pegawai pengurus pilhan raya membatalkan kertas pencalonannya ekoran satu kes mahkamah.

Najib dan sekumpulan lagi pemimpin Umno termasuk presidennya, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi digelar kluster mahkamah kerana mempunyai pelbagai kes undang-undang berkait rasuah dan pengubahan wang haram.

Mujibu berkata, selain sudut memenangi kerusi, aspek reputasi negara juga perlu diambil kira oleh Umno.

“Saya tidak fikir pencalonan Najib ini bagus dari sudut integriti.

“Sekiranya Umno mengekalkan gologan yang digelar kleptokrat, ia menghantar isyarat yang tidak baik tentang hala tuju negara,” katanya.

Umno masih dikuasai ‘warlord’

Mujibu melahirkan kegusaran mengenai keadaan daya saing ekonomi negara yang sudahpun terkesan disebabkan ketidakstabilan politik dan pandemik Covid-19.

Katanya, Malaysia sedang terkial-kial untuk bersaing dengan negara jiran dan pencalonan Najib dilihat menambahkan lagi cabaran kepada ekonomi negara apabila pelabur asing bakal mempertikaikan integriti kerajaan.

Pencalonan Najib juga bakal membawa persepsi bahawa Umno merupakan parti yang tidak berubah atau sukar berubah.

Katanya, ia merupakan isyarat bahawa budaya politik “warlord” (hulubalang) dan feudalisme masih tebal dalam parti Melayu itu.

Umno dan Barisan Nasional tewas pada PRU14 buat pertama kalinya dalam sejarah Malaysia pada 2018.

Namun parti itu kembali semula ke tampuk pemerintahan selepas pembentukan kerajaan Perikatan Nasional (PN) pada Mac 2020, susulan peletakan jawatan Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

Pengarah Eksekutif Ilham Centre Hisommudin Bakar berkata, dua faktor utama yang akan menentukan pencalonan beliau ialah presiden Umno yang akan menandatangani watikah calon demgan melihat keboleh menangan Najib, dan faktor perundangan.

“Jika merujuk kepada budi bicara pegawai Suruhanjaya Pilihan Raya pada hari penamaan calon, keadaan ini masih berisiko dan terdedah kepada bantahan calon lain yang mungkin tidak berpuas hati dengan pencalonan beliau,” katanya kepada MalaysiaNow.

Hisommudin dan Mujibu bersetuju kebarangkalian Najib untuk mengekalkan kerusi di Pekan adalah tinggi.

Bagi Hisommudin, pencalonan semula Najib dilihat sebagai strategi menarik semula segmen undi protes yang memberi undi kepada pembangkang pada PRU14 lepas.

Bagaimanapun katanya, imej Najib bakal memberi kesan kepada pengundi di kawasan campuran yang undi bukan Melayu menjadi penentu.

Selain itu, Umno perlu memberikan justifikasi sekiranya Najib dan kumpulan kluster mahkamah benar-benar dicalonkan semula.

“Sebarang keputusan dan riskio perlu dinilai oleh strategis Umno bagi memberikan formula kemenangan kepada parti Melayu itu,” katanya.

Bagi Mujibu, Umno juga berisiko kehilangan pengundi muda pada PRU15 sekiranya masih mengekalkan muka lama seperti Najib kerana cabaran terbesar ialah untuk mencari bagaimana mereka boleh mereformasikan parti dan meyakinkan rakyat tentang keterbukaan, ketelusan dan mesra orang muda.

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