How Russia war-gamed a Chinese invasion

A woman takes a photo of a child sitting on a military vehicle during the Russians Change the World patriotic festival in Saint Petersburg on February 24, 2024, on the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Photo by Olga MALTSEVA / AFP

Angry mobs clashing with police in eastern cities. Networks of saboteurs smuggling arms across the border for attacks on police stations and military barracks. A resentful nuclear power boosting defence production as it accuses its neighbour of ethnic cleansing.

These all sound like Russia’s playbook when it first invaded Ukraine in 2014, then launched a full-scale war in 2022. But the storylines are all from Russian military training exercises based on a hypothetical Chinese invasion of its far east.