Pakar ekonomi jelaskan bagaimana Bajet 2023 boleh membantu melawan kemelesetan

pakar ekonomi jelaskan bagaimana bajet 2023 boleh membantu melawan kemelesetan

Pakar ekonomi jelaskan bagaimana Bajet 2023 boleh membantu melawan kemelesetan

Kemelesetan ekonomi global dijangka melanda dunia pada tahun depan, melihat kepada beberapa indikator utama antaranya peningkatan dolar Amerika Syarikat (AS) yang kini berada pada tahap terkuat dalam dua dekad.

Peningkatan dolar AS bagaimanapun disusuli dengan penuruan nilai matawang lain termasuk pound United Kingdom (UK), yuan dan ringgit, yang mana import barangan seperti makanan dan bahan mentah menjadi mahal untuk negara-negara tersebut.

Kadar faedah yang meningkat juga menyaksikan peminjam di negara seperti AS dan UK berdepan kesukaran membayar semula hutang dan komitmen mereka.

Ia mungkin mengakibatkan kesan yang sama di Malaysia ekoran peningkatan kadar dasar semalaman (OPR) yang dijangka akan dinaikkan lagi dalam masa terdekat.

Pembentangan Bajet 2023 yang ditunggu pada Jumaat pastinya perlu mempunyai pakej-pakej yang ampuh dalam mendepani cabaran ekonomi tahun depan.

Pakar ekonomi dari Malaysia University of Science and Technology, Geoffrey Williams berkata kerajaan perlu mengekalkan belanjawan yang bersaiz kecil, selepas beberapa siri bantuan khas Covid-19.

“Penjimatan itu boleh diberikan semula kepada rakyat untuk membenarkan mereka berbelanja wang mereka mengikut cara masing-masing, berbanding dibelanjakan oleh kerajaan.

“Ini meletakkan wang secara langsung ke dalam tangan pengguna dan perniagaan , membantu orang ramai mengekalkan perbelanjaan, menaikkan keuntungan perniagaan terutama perusahaan kecil dan sederhana, serta membolehkan lebih banyak pelaburan swasta untuk pertumbuhan ekonomi,” katanya kepada MalaysiaNow.

Beliau menggesa kerajaan mengelakkan belanjawan populis yang boleh mengganggu pasaran, seperti mana yang berlaku di UK.

Belanjawan yang populis bakal melemahkan kedudukan ringgit dan memberi tekanan terhadap kadar faedah.

Namun bagi Ahmed Razman Abdul Latiff daripada Putra Business School, Universiti Putra Malaysia, kerajaan dijangka membentangkan belanjawan terbesar dalam sejarah.

Ini kerana belanjawan tersebut akan menjadi yang terakhir menyusul pembubaran Parlimen.

Katanya, fokus perlu diberikan kepada individu, isi rumah dan perniagaan melalui pelbagai insentif berimpak tinggi.

“Peruntukan yang lebih besar boleh membantu menjana ekonomi dengan lebih rancak tapi pada masa yang sama mengawal kenaikan kadar inflasi kerana jika ianya tidak dikawal, kadar OPR akan naik dan juga pinjaman tidak berbayar (NPL).

“Untuk mengawal kenaikan kadar inflasi, kerajaan persekutuan harus meneruskan subsidi pukal untuk memastikan harga barangan dan perkhidmatan asas tidak meningkat,” tambahnya.

Bajet 2022 yang dibentang tahun lalu merupakan belanjawan terbesar dalam sejarah dengan peruntukan sebanyak RM332.1 bilion.

Bagi Williams, memastikan kadar faedah pada kadar 2.5 hingga 3% menjadi kunci dalam memastikan tiada tekanan daripada dasar monetari susulan polisi fiskal yang berlebihan (excessive fiscal stance).

Williams berkata, melangkaui “goodies” bersempena pilihan raya, reformasi struktural perlu dilakukan termasuk menamatkan subsidi berdasarkan produk, jenama atau syarikat tertentu yang menjadi punca kos transaksi tinggi dan korupsi.

Ini termasuk memperkenalkan skim pemindahan tunai atau “universtal basic income” menerusi reformasi skim-skim bantuan dan sistem cukai yang boleh dijadikan pembayaran tetap setiap bulan untuk kumpulan berpendapatan rendah.

“Ini mampu menggantikan pembayaran kebajikan sedia ada yang kompleks dengan sistem tunggal. Tuntasnya, kita wajar mengelakkan bayaran tunai berdasarkan projek dan fokus kepada pemberian tunai yang lebih meluas,” katanya.

( This would replace the current complex welfare payments with one simpler system. Essentially we should avoid project-based handouts and focus on wider cash transfers to people and businesses directly).

Katanya, sistem duti dan cukai wajar distruktur semula secara menyeluruh, sekali gus menamatkan perdebatan berhubung cukai barangan dan perkhidmatan (GST) atau cukai jualan dan perkhidmatan (SST).

Razman pula berkata, kerajaan boleh menawarkan kaedah pemilikan rumah yang tidak melalui pembiayaan bank semata-mata, tetapi menerusi kaedah “council home” yang menggabungkan bayaran sewa dan pembelian dalam satu pembayaran.

“Kerajaan boleh hadir dengan belanjawan yang benar-benar mendepani isu-isu ekonomi dan bukan semata-mata bajet populis apabila setiap inisiatif yang dicadangkan harus memberi impak positif yang ketara kepada penerimanya.

“Antara inisiatif yang terbukti berkesan ialah insentif kepada majikan untuk menambah pekerjanya, Bantuan Keluarga Malaysia, penjana kerjaya serta pembiayaan kewangan kepada PKS,” katanya.

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