Oil prices will remain high as China's economy starts to fire on all cylinders again

the latest tech news, global tech news daily, tech news today, startups, usa tech, asia tech, china tech, eu tech, global tech, in-depth electronics reviews, 24h tech news, 24h tech news, top mobile apps, tech news daily, gaming hardware, big tech news, useful technology tips, expert interviews, reporting on the business of technology, venture capital funding, programing language

Chinese economy, demand for oil, 10.85 million barrels, “dynamic zero infection” policy, blue-sky Games, factory activity, living with the virus, crude oil imports, Saudi Arabia, renewable energy sources

Oil traded at a seven-year high last Friday, with Brent crude reaching US$93.70 a barrel, driven by increased demand and constrained supply. This might not be the end of it as China is not firing on all economic cylinders. When – not if – the Chinese economy picks up pace, this will only fuel even more demand for oil.

the latest tech news, global tech news daily, tech news today, startups, usa tech, asia tech, china tech, eu tech, global tech, in-depth electronics reviews, 24h tech news, 24h tech news, top mobile apps, tech news daily, gaming hardware, big tech news, useful technology tips, expert interviews, reporting on the business of technology, venture capital funding, programing language

Size matters. China accounts for a tenth of the global crude trade and is by far the world’s largest oil importer – it imported a record volume of 10.85 million barrels per day in 2020, but demand fell by 590,000 barrels a day last year as the economy ran into headwinds.

Not least of these was the adverse economic impact of Beijing’s “dynamic zero infection” policy to contain the spread of Covid-19. Fast-forward to today and China’s restrictive policy remains in place while economic activity has also been seasonally affected by the Lunar New Year holiday and the one-off impact of the Beijing Winter Olympics.

Global Tech News Daily

There have been factory closures in northern production hubs as China attempts to cut pollution and maximise the chances of a blue-sky Games. This confluence of factors helps explain the slowdown in the expansion of China’s factory activity in January.

As it is, the National Bureau of Statistics shows China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index edged down to 50.1 in January from December’s 50.3. A reading greater than 50 indicates production expansion, below 50 is a contraction.

Global Tech News Daily

But the hit to economic activity related to the Lunar New Year and the Beijing Winter Olympics is transitory. Although China continues to adhere to its strict Covid-19 policy, it remains to be seen whether such a stance is sustainable in a world where many major economies are moving towards living with the virus.

From an energy perspective, analysts and oil company officials are already predicting that China’s crude oil imports could rebound by 6 to 7 per cent this year, reversing that 2021 decline. For 2022, energy analysts at FGE, Rystad Energy and Energy Aspects believe crude oil imports are poised to grow by 600,000 to 700,000 barrels per day.

The picture elsewhere is also revealing. In the week to January 28, US crude inventories fell by 1 million barrels, to 415.1 million barrels, a consequence of strong demand but limited supply. That might sound like a large amount of oil, but US crude stocks are now approaching the low levels of October 2018, when inventories stood at 409 million barrels.

The bottom line is that, even without China’s economy firing on all cylinders, the oil price is already elevated.

If there was room to raise production to help match the increased demand, that could make a material difference to the price equation, but there currently doesn’t seem much spare capacity to exploit. In fact, the crude supply seems somewhat inelastic.

Opec members and other oil producers led by Russia said last week they would stick to their previous target of monthly increases of 400,000 barrels per day but would not go further. The grouping, known as Opec+, matters as it pumps more than 40 per cent of the world’s oil supply, yet, aside from Saudi Arabia, most members lack the spare capacity to raise production and some are even struggling to meet their current targets.

In part, this is a result of underinvestment in the global oil industry in the face of the clear, well-documented international drive to wean the world economy off carbon-emitting fossil fuels and move towards a reliance on renewable energy sources.

Chinese economy, demand for oil, 10.85 million barrels, “dynamic zero infection” policy, blue-sky Games, factory activity, living with the virus, crude oil imports, Saudi Arabia, renewable energy sources

This international push is hardly going to persuade investors there is much to be gained from ploughing capital into new crude oil exploration and extraction projects. Yet, the world economy will still have to rely on traditional hydrocarbon fuel even as it moves from fossil fuel dependency to a clean, sustainable energy future.

That leaves the global economy facing crude supply constraints even as oil demand is rising and before China’s economy is again operating at full capacity. As Chinese economic activity accelerates, the imbalance between oil demand and supply will only become more skewed.

The price of oil was uncomfortably high for buyers at the end of last week, but in July 2008 it hit US$147 a barrel when Opec supply constraints collided with surging Chinese demand. This isn’t 2008, but as China’s economy picks up there will only be even more demand for crude oil.

Neal Kimberley is a commentator on macroeconomics and financial markets

News Related

OTHER NEWS

Philippe Coutinho's agent has already revealed his thoughts on Liverpool transfer return

jQuery(function(){ if (typeof jwplayer_load == typeof indefined) { var jwplayer_load = 1; jQuery(window).load(function(){ jQuery(".sc_video_shortcode_jwplayer").each(function(){ var _this = $(this); jQuery.get(jQuery(this).attr("url"), function(data, status){ if (typeof data.split("\n") !== typeof undefined) { var src ... Read more »

Araujo taken in ambulance after sickening clash of heads with Barcelona teammate Gavi

Barcelona defender Ronald Araujo was taken off the pitch in an ambulance during their match against Celta Vigo and rushed to hospital. The Uruguayan was involved in a sickening clash ... Read more »

Aston Villa vs Liverpool: Report and player ratings Sadio Mane gives Reds a Premier League title boost

A much-changed Liverpool side came from behind to win at Villa Park to keep the pressure on league leaders Manchester City Read more »

Liverpool vindicated Jurgen Klopp’s risky rotation policy by doing just enough to beat wasteful Aston Villa

Klopp demoted Mo Salah to the bench and Andy Robertson from the squad but Liverpool had enough to reserve to bounce back from Saturday’s disappointment Read more »

Gary Lineker offers solution to Coleen Rooney and Rebekah Vardy 'Wagatha Christie' case

Gary Lineker has offered a funny solution to the “Wagatha Christie” court case between Coleen Rooney and Rebekah Vardy. Coleen is being sued by Rebekah for libel at the High ... Read more »

FIFA chief Gianni Infantino announces plans to create football game to rival EA Sports

FIFA are planning to create their own football video game after it was announced their three-decade partnership with EA Sports is coming to an end. EA Sports have confirmed FIFA ... Read more »

Fabinho injury: Liverpool midfielder suffers suspected hamstring issue ahead of FA Cup final against Chelsea

The Brazilian pulled up as he sprinted after Philippe Coutinho and had to be replaced by Jordan Henderson at Villa Park Read more »

Man Utd youth coach assesses club's "exciting" kids and his own rise ahead of cup final

Justin Cochrane started his coaching career while a teenage player at QPR when he placed an advert in his local paper for juniors to teach. It didn’t make big news ... Read more »

One year on from football's social media blackout - what's changed?

More than one year on from the social media boycott aimed at tackling discrimination and vile abuse online has anything really changed? You'll remember that at the end of April ... Read more »

European transfer news: Real Madrid up stakes for Kylian Mbappe plus Casemiro exit

Real Madrid have long been linked with Paris Saint-Germain striker Kylian Mbappe and despite speculation the France star is set to sign a new contract with the Ligue 1 giants ... Read more »

Sadio Mane's 'childhood dream' comes to light as Liverpool star linked with summer exit

Sadio Mane 's dream destination has come to light amid links of a summer transfer to Bayern Munich. The Liverpool star is yet to sign a new contract with the ... Read more »

Jadon Sancho's Erling Haaland plea falls on deaf ears as he ignores Man Utd star's wishes

jQuery(function(){ if (typeof jwplayer_load == typeof indefined) { var jwplayer_load = 1; jQuery(window).load(function(){ jQuery(".sc_video_shortcode_jwplayer").each(function(){ var _this = $(this); jQuery.get(jQuery(this).attr("url"), function(data, status){ if (typeof data.split("\n") !== typeof undefined) { var src ... Read more »

Edu 'steps up' Arsenal transfer efforts for £17m Scotland star to replace Nuno Tavares

Arsenal have reportedly stepped up their attempts to sign Scotland star Aaron Hickey as a replacement for Nuno Tavares. After laying out the Gunners' transfer plans, technical director Edu is ... Read more »

Newcastle prepare summer transfer cull with as many as 10 stars 'facing axe'

jQuery(function(){ if (typeof jwplayer_load == typeof indefined) { var jwplayer_load = 1; jQuery(window).load(function(){ jQuery(".sc_video_shortcode_jwplayer").each(function(){ var _this = $(this); jQuery.get(jQuery(this).attr("url"), function(data, status){ if (typeof data.split("\n") !== typeof undefined) { var src ... Read more »

5 Man City casualties from Erling Haaland transfer including brand new signing

The sight of Erling Haaland arriving at Manchester City will send tremors of terror throughout the Premier League – and perhaps to his team-mates as well – as the champions ... Read more »

Chelsea ace Antonio Rudiger signs Real Madrid contract with huge release clause

Chelsea defender Antonio Rudiger has now penned a bumper pre-contract agreement with Real Madrid to bring his five-year stint at Stamford Bridge to an end, according to a new report. ... Read more »

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was spot on about Erling Haaland after revealing thoughts on Man Utd

jQuery(function(){ if (typeof jwplayer_load == typeof indefined) { var jwplayer_load = 1; jQuery(window).load(function(){ jQuery(".sc_video_shortcode_jwplayer").each(function(){ var _this = $(this); jQuery.get(jQuery(this).attr("url"), function(data, status){ if (typeof data.split("\n") !== typeof undefined) { var src ... Read more »

Fifth senior Man Utd figure leaves club as chief strategy officer exits in reshuffle

Manchester United have told their employees chief strategy officer Hemen Tseayo is stepping down from his position. A new era began at Old Trafford in February when Richard Arnold became ... Read more »

7 flops who cost more than Erling Haaland after bargain Man City transfer announced

The capture of Erling Haaland has sent pulses racing amongst Manchester City fans as the Premier League prepares to welcome the Norwegian hot-shot. The champions have agreed a £51million deal ... Read more »

Arsenal desperate to prevent Eddie Nketiah exit with six Premier League rivals keen

jQuery(function(){ if (typeof jwplayer_load == typeof indefined) { var jwplayer_load = 1; jQuery(window).load(function(){ jQuery(".sc_video_shortcode_jwplayer").each(function(){ var _this = $(this); jQuery.get(jQuery(this).attr("url"), function(data, status){ if (typeof data.split("\n") !== typeof undefined) { var src ... Read more »

Pep Guardiola reacts to uproar over Liverpool comments after Jurgen Klopp response

jQuery(function(){ if (typeof jwplayer_load == typeof indefined) { var jwplayer_load = 1; jQuery(window).load(function(){ jQuery(".sc_video_shortcode_jwplayer").each(function(){ var _this = $(this); jQuery.get(jQuery(this).attr("url"), function(data, status){ if (typeof data.split("\n") !== typeof undefined) { var src ... Read more »

Brighton starlet attracting transfer attention days after returning from loan

Highly-rated Brighton goalkeeper Carl Rushworth is back training with the Premier League club after his loan at Walsall ended. Rushworth made 43 appearances for Walsall keeping 11 clean sheets for ... Read more »

Lazio president responds to Man Utd's transfer 'interest' in Sergej Milinkovic-Savic

Lazio president Claudio Lotito insists Sergej Milinkovic-Savic is not for sale amid rumours linking him with both Juventus and Manchester United. The Serbia international, 27, has impressed for Lazio this ... Read more »

Cristiano Ronaldo's seven-year prediction on £30m Arsenal transfer speaks volumes

jQuery(function(){ if (typeof jwplayer_load == typeof indefined) { var jwplayer_load = 1; jQuery(window).load(function(){ jQuery(".sc_video_shortcode_jwplayer").each(function(){ var _this = $(this); jQuery.get(jQuery(this).attr("url"), function(data, status){ if (typeof data.split("\n") !== typeof undefined) { var src ... Read more »

Gary Lineker hits out at Patrice Evra for talking "utter nonsense" about Pep Guardiola

Gary Lineker has responded to Patrice Evra's claim that Pep Guardiola doesn't want any leaders at Manchester City due to his management. The former Manchester United defender believes the Spaniard ... Read more »

Stats show Antonio Conte justified in hitting back at Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool 'excuses'

jQuery(function(){ if (typeof jwplayer_load == typeof indefined) { var jwplayer_load = 1; jQuery(window).load(function(){ jQuery(".sc_video_shortcode_jwplayer").each(function(){ var _this = $(this); jQuery.get(jQuery(this).attr("url"), function(data, status){ if (typeof data.split("\n") !== typeof undefined) { var src ... Read more »

Borussia Dortmund immediately name Erling Haaland replacement amid failed Man Utd attempt

Borussia Dortmund have already replaced Erling Haaland by snapping up RB Salzburg hotshot Karim Adeyemi – despite Manchester United's late attempt to hijack the deal. Dortmund have been braced for ... Read more »

Patrick Vieira selects best players he played with and against during legendary career

Patrick Vieira has named Zinedine Zidane, Dennis Bergkamp and Thierry Henry as the best three players he played with during his illustrious playing career. Vieira, who is now the manager ... Read more »

Ralf Rangnick's 4 most controversial Man Utd remarks as Rio Ferdinand calls him "distasteful"

jQuery(function(){ if (typeof jwplayer_load == typeof indefined) { var jwplayer_load = 1; jQuery(window).load(function(){ jQuery(".sc_video_shortcode_jwplayer").each(function(){ var _this = $(this); jQuery.get(jQuery(this).attr("url"), function(data, status){ if (typeof data.split("\n") !== typeof undefined) { var src ... Read more »

Roy Hodgson responds to angry Watford fan backlash after his "snub" at Crystal Palace

Roy Hodson has apologised to Watford fans for failing to acknowledge them in the dark hour of relegation but insisted: “I didn't snub them deliberately.” As their relegation to the ... Read more »

Jesse Marsch quotes Gandhi, JFK and Mother Teresa in bizarre Leeds survival team talk

It is hardly “we’ll fight them on the beaches” stuff, but Jesse Marsch is using sayings by Gandhi and Mother Teresa to fire up his Leeds players for their relegation ... Read more »

Birmingham could sign ex-Atletico Madrid and Chelsea striker if Maxi Lopez buys club

Former Argentine footballer Maxi Lopez wants to sign free agent Diego Costa if he gets control at Birmingham. Birmingham’s Chinese owners are ready to sell a stake in the club ... Read more »

Jose Mourinho demands "explanation" and "respect" in furious Roma outburst

Jose Mourinho has demanded that Roma receive an “explanation” for decisions that went against them in their bruising 2-0 defeat to Fiorentina on Monday. The Giallorossi, not so fresh from ... Read more »

FA Youth Cup final 2022: Man Utd stars to watch vs Nottingham Forest, from Alejandro Garnacho to Joe Hugill

United take on Nottingham Forest at Old Trafford on Wednesday bidding for a record 11th competition triumph Read more »

Antonio Conte taunts Jurgen Klopp with strong response to Liverpool boss' dig

Antonio Conte has hit back at Jurgen Klopp's analysis of his Tottenham side, insisting that Liverpool were lucky to escape with a point from their weekend meeting at Anfield. Spurs ... Read more »

5 free agents Erik ten Hag could target with Man Utd summer transfer budget in question

jQuery(function(){ if (typeof jwplayer_load == typeof indefined) { var jwplayer_load = 1; jQuery(window).load(function(){ jQuery(".sc_video_shortcode_jwplayer").each(function(){ var _this = $(this); jQuery.get(jQuery(this).attr("url"), function(data, status){ if (typeof data.split("\n") !== typeof undefined) { var src ... Read more »

Man City confirm sensational Erling Haaland transfer to sign Europe's hottest property

Manchester City have announced the stunning capture of Erling Haaland after meeting his release clause at Borussia Dortmund. The Norway international, 21, has arguably been the most sought-after player in ... Read more »

Man Utd 'prepare formal bid' for Portuguese youngster who impressed Bruno Fernandes

Manchester United are reportedly preparing a 'formal proposal' for Sporting Lisbon centre-back Goncalo Inacio. Inacio, who came through Sporting's youth ranks, made his senior breakthrough in the 2020/21 season after ... Read more »

Jack Wilshere in Denmark: How Arsenal hero has fared as he provides vital assist

11 years ago this month, Jack Wilshere was fulfilling media duties for England ahead of the Three Lions Euro 2012 qualifying clash against Switzerland. Not one reporter in the room ... Read more »

Erling Haaland transfer: Man City confirm agreement in principle to sign Borussia Dortmund striker for £64m

City are still finalising terms with Haaland, who passed a medical in Belgium on Monday Read more »