Oil demand to stabilize after 2035 — OPEC

The oil demand in the transport sector will remain stable within the range of 46-46.5 mln barrels daily until 2045

© Yegor Aleyev/TASS

MOSCOW, September 28. /TASS/. The global oil demand will recover and reach 104.4 mln barrels daily during five coming years but oil consumption rates will start slowing down as early as after 2026 on account of developed economies. The demand will stop growing and stabilize after 2035, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) says in its World Oil Outlook (WOO) released today.

The oil demand will grow by 13.8 mln barrels per day in 2019-2026, OPEC says. Years of 2021-2023 will account for the lion’s share of such acceleration (80%), when the world will be making up for consumption after lengthy lockdowns, the report says. The oil demand in general will grow by 17.6 mln barrels per day within the period by 2045 against the 2020 base, from 90.6 mln barrels daily to 108.2 mln barrels per day.

Oil demand dynamics in different countries will be different and even mixed on the back of de-carbonization of economies, OPEC says. Developing economies will only support consumption growth now, the report says.

Oil demand in tranport sector

According to World Oil Outlook, the global automobile fleet will grow almost twofold to 2.6 bln by 2045 but the share of electric transport will increase to 20% as its part.

The fleet of electric vehicles will climb to 500 mln by 2045, OPEC reports.

The long-term growth of oil demand will be limited by increasingly greater penetration of electric transport in the life of consumers, OPEC experts say. The oil demand in the transport sector will therefore remain stable within the range of 46-46.5 mln barrels daily until 2045, the Organization says.

Automobiles with internal combustion engines will still hold the large share of 76%, largely supported by the demand on the side of developing economies.

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