Ashish Kyal, Founder & CEO at Waves Strategy Advisors
Nifty tops can be captured by understanding a simple cyclical behaviour and time concept.
So far, we have focused on catching lows or bottoms and the reason being cycle works exceptionally well during the lows. There are a few simple time concepts which states why we use time cycles to capture lows. However, if applied prudently, we can catch tops as well.
Below is the chart of Nifty showing a topping cycle:
Nifty Topping Cycle
We turned bearish on the Nifty as soon as it broke 18,400, which was the low of time cycle and it corrected more than 300 points from there. Many have been astonished to see such accuracy in catching a top in such an euphoric market.
The next support level for Nifty is near 18,000 mark but we will turn bullish only once we see cycles turning back on upside. Until then, enjoy the ride down by following trailing stop method when majority are searching for the news that is leading to the downfall but forgetting to see the time scale on the chart that carries the answer to the mystery.
By understanding the rhythm of time, one can keep it simple and trade effectively without getting deviated by looking at indicators. Price and Time are the most important elements as a trader is trading only those to make money out of markets. Indicators are good to provide secondary confirmation and adding to the conviction. The two studies that are price-driven and time-driven are Elliott Wave – Neo wave and Time Cycles.
In a nutshell, Nifty can move in a broad range of 18,450 – 18,000 over the short term and time cycles can assist traders in timing the market to the very hour.
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