NHL Playoffs: Six Teams Trail 3-1. How Many Are Likely to Come Back and Win?

Winnipeg Jets players stand for the national anthems before Game 4 against the Colorado Avalanche. Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

At this point in the NHL’s Stanley Cup playoffs, six teams are facing a 3-1 series deficit.

That brings to mind the question – which teams have the best chance of coming back and moving on to the second round?

Here’s one writer’s point of view, in order from least likely to most likely:

Toronto Maple Leafs: Very unlikely

The Boston Bruins thoroughly dismantled the Maple Leafs in a pivotal Game 4 Saturday night in Toronto. The series moves on to Game 5 Tuesday in Boston, and many, if not most, hockey observers are expecting the Bruins to put the Leafs out of their misery.

At this stage, it’s clear the Bruins are the more motivated, dynamic group here, and Toronto’s recent history of playoff failure only adds to the sense the Leafs are done.

Boston did blow a 3-1 series lead to Florida last season, so it’s not completely out of the question, but it is most likely out of the question. The Leafs have earned their unfortunate reputation, and that’s why we see them as least likely to come back.

New York Islanders: Very unlikely

The Islanders staved off elimination Saturday with a 3-2 overtime win against the Carolina Hurricanes, but for the most part, it’s obvious who the better team is in this series.

The Hurricanes are the favorite pick to win the Cup for good reason — they’re the total package, with great play at both ends of the rink. By and large, the Hurricanes are in a different class than the Islanders. Isles coach Patrick Roy may have a few tricks up his sleeve to extend the series, but unless Roy unretires as a player and gets back in net for the Islanders, Carolina is going to end this series in either Game 5 or Game 6.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Unlikely

The battle of Florida has been mostly one-sided, with the Florida Panthers charging out to a 3-0 series lead before the Lightning avoided elimination with a 6-3 Game 4 win.

The Bolts looked appropriately desperate, but the Panthers were the favorite to win this series, and nothing that’s happened has changed most people’s minds in that regard. Florida is quicker and stronger than the Bolts, who haven’t been able to keep up in most of the series.

The Lightning are nearing the unfortunate part of their competitive cycle, while the Panthers are in their prime. Tampa might be able to win a game or two to send the series to a Game 7, but we don’t see the Lightning being capable of winning three straight games against their intra-state rivals.

Nashville Predators: Unlikely

The Predators haven’t been completely outclassed by the Vancouver Canucks in their first-round series. But as the Canucks showed in their Game 4 overtime victory Sunday, they can play the game any way the Preds want to, and Vancouver will still almost always come out on top.

Nashville has a number of proud veterans who don’t want to be eliminated quickly, but even after Canucks star goalie Thatcher Demko was injured, Vancouver still had the firepower and sufficient netminding to outlast the Predators. Absent a miracle, the Canucks will be the victors here.

Los Angeles Kings: Likely

This writer picked the Kings to upset the Edmonton Oilers in their first-round series. While that optimism hasn’t proved to be correct, the Kings have kept the games close in two of the four games that have been played, including a 1-0 squeaker of a Game 4.

A bounce here or there, and this series would look very different, and there’s enough veteran know-how on the Kings to push the Oilers to a Game 7 when everything would boil down to 60 minutes of action. We’re not saying to bet the house on the Kings coming back, but we’re also respectful of what L.A. can do, so we’re going out on a bit of a limb here and stating we think the Kings can get the job done.

Winnipeg Jets: Very likely

After winning a wild Game 1 against Colorado, the Jets have dropped three in a row to the Avalanche – a pattern that matches their unfortunate first-round elimination by Vegas last season.

However, with Winnipeg’s goaltending and balanced lineup, there’s no question the Jets can get back in the hunt and push the Avs to a winner-take-all Game 7.

The Jets aren’t the same team as they were in the 2023 post-season, and for that reason, we’re pegging them as the team most likely to make a comeback and move on to Round 2. It’s certainly possible the Avalanche will knock out Winnipeg, but a series comeback wouldn’t shock us at all.