NFL Week 13 bets: Four player prop targets for Sunday
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (11).
There’s quite a bit to like from this week in the NFL, and we get started with four players against some very familiar defensive targets.
1u: Najee Harris & Jaylen Warren 40+ rushing yards (+110 FanDuel)
Both of these guys to get 50+ on DraftKings is -110, so yeah, definitely be looking to FanDuel if you want a piece of these Steelers RBs.
I’ve seen Najee Harris as a very popular name to start the week, and I totally get it and want a piece. I missed out on a far lower line, so I’m going to pivot here and include Jaylen Warren, who I bet on last week to success.
Both should be able to find 40+ yards here against an Arizona defense allowing the second-most rushing yards per game to RBs. They are getting a nearly even split with their carries, and this combo has cashed in three of the past four weeks.
Only one team sees more rush attempts per game than the Cardinals, and Pittsburgh is one of the run-heaviest teams in the league. It’s a perfect intersection for both to pop. Harris has 69+ yards in three of his last four, and Warren has 88+ yards in three of his last four.
What the heck, let’s include a .5u on each to get 60+.
Betting .5u: Harris & Warren 60+ yards each (+325 FD)
1u: Derrick Henry over 60.5 rushing yards (-114 FD)
Derrick Henry is facing an Indianapolis defense that is allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per game to RBs.
Last week, Rachaad White finished with 100 yards. The game prior, both Rhamondre Stevenson (88) and Ezekiel Elliott (54) went over their yards. In fact, seven straight RBs to see the Colts has gone over their rushing yards prop.
Henry should be next. He hasn’t been as efficient this season, but he’s still seeing the carries I’d like to see. Henry has 61+ rushing yards in seven of 11 games this season, and he’s averaging 95.2 yards/game at home this season, over in all five games.
Henry has also loved seeing the Colts over the years. He has 80+ rushing yards in eight of the past 10 meetings, averaging 107.1 yards/game.
1u: Michael Pittman over 65.5 yards (-120 Fanatics)
This is upwards of 72.5 on other books, so if you can get Fanatics, I most definitely recommend opting for Pittman’s yards there.
The appeal of Michael Pittman is quite simple. Tennessee is allowing the sixth-most yards per pass attempt, the sixth-most 20+ yard passes/game and DVOA grades out their secondary as the third-worst in the league.
The kicker is that the Titans are allowing the fourth-most receptions/game to WRs. I dare you to find a player getting more catches right now than Pittman.
He’s logged 8+ catches in four straight games, five of his last six and eight of his 11 overall. He’s over this line in four of his last six games, and while I considered over 6.5 receptions, I think I prefer yards here.
Recent top WRs to see Tennessee include Calvin Ridley (103), Mike Evans (143) and Diontae Johnson (90). I expect a big game from Gardner Minshew’s top target.
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