NFL schedule release: Five teams that could be good in 2024 based on their opponents' win percentage
NFL schedule release: Five teams that could be good in 2024 based on their opponents’ win percentage
The 2024 NFL schedule won’t be released this week as anticipated, with the league informing teams that will be happening on Wednesday, May 15. All offseason, the opponents have been finalized — all that remains is when the teams will be playing each other (and the network they will be on).
The strength of schedule is already known for each team. While the metric is flawed, it’s fun to speculate which teams will be good based on the strength of schedule (also plays into the offseason signings and draft picks).
As the league awaits the 2024 schedule, here’s a prediction of five teams that will be good in 2024 based on their strength of schedule. Three of these teams were playoff teams last season.
Atlanta Falcons (.453)
2023 record: 7-10
The Falcons are tied with the Saints for the easiest strength of schedule in the entire NFL, and have the benefit of playing eight teams that finished with a losing record last season. Adding Kirk Cousins at quarterback doesn’t hurt either, as not having a starting quarterback last season was part of the reason why the Falcons didn’t make the playoffs — despite having the easiest strength of schedule based on the previous season’s opponents.
Cousins should grab the Falcons a few extra wins in an NFC South that’s available for the taking. The quality of opponents is certainly in their favor.
Chicago Bears (.467)
2023 record: 7-10
The Bears had one of the most aggressive offseasons, starting with selecting Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick and Rome Odunze at No. 9 overall. Chicago also added D’Andre Swift and Gerald Everett to the offense and were able to retain Jaylon Johnson at cornerback.
A revamped Bears team also has a favorable schedule, with six opponents that finished under. 500 last season. Chicago also has New England (4-13), Tennessee (6-11), Arizona (4-13) and Carolina (2-15) on the schedule.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (.478)
2023 record: 9-8
The Buccaneers did win the NFC South last season and advanced to the divisional round of the playoffs. They re-signed Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield Jr. while also adding Jordan Whitehead. First-round pick Graham Barton also helps the interior of the offensive line.
Tampa Bay plays Carolina (2-15) twice, Denver (8-9), and the New York Giants (6-11) on the 2024 slate. While the Buccaneers play six teams that were in the NFL postseason last year, they also play nine opponents that finished with losing records in 2023.
There’s an opportunity for double-digit wins.
Miami Dolphins (.488)
2023 record: 11-6
While the Dolphins were a playoff team last season, their 1-6 record against teams with winning records spoke volumes. The Dolphins took advantage of a favorable schedule in 2023, and should do the same in 2024. Miami plays seven teams that finished with losing records last season, including New England (4-13) twice, Tennessee (6-11), Arizona (4-13), and Las Vegas (8-9).
Err on the side of caution. The New York Jets (7-10) should be better, and the Dolphins play them twice. Jordan Poyer, Shaquil Barrett, Jordyn Brooks, and first-round pick Chop Robinson should boost a revamped defense to help out an already explosive offense.
If the Dolphins play better against teams with winning records, 11 wins shouldn’t be out of the question.
Philadelphia Eagles (.491)
2023 record: 11-6
The Eagles had the toughest schedule in the league entering last season and finished 11-6, and that was with a 10-1 start while losing five of their final six games. Philadelphia revamped an already talented roster, being aggressive in free agency by signing Saquon Barkley, Bryce Huff and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Haason Reddick was traded, while Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean were the team’s top-two picks in the draft.
Philadelphia only plays against six teams that finished 2023 with losing records, four of which are in their own division (New York and Washington). The opponents’ win percentage doesn’t do the schedule justice, but the Eagles are one of the most talented teams in the NFL.
Playing the AFC North will be a challenge, but Philadelphia should be a contender for 12+ wins again.