Asian Cup preview: Son dreams of glory but Japan look team to beat

Photograph: Lee Jin-man/AP

All due respect to Tottenham Hotspur, but the Asian Cup that kicks off in Qatar on Friday might be the best chance Son Heung-min has left to win a major title. He never has – the 2018 Asian Games don’t count – but it is not just about the Spurs captain. It was so long ago when South Korea last became continental champions that they beat South Vietnam and Israel along the way. Son’s wait is not quite 64 years, but time is running out.

The Taeguk Warriors reached the final of the 2015 edition but lost, a little unluckily, to Ange Postecoglou’s Australia. Son scored in Sydney and in Doha there are others to help shoulder what at one time looked to be a weighty national burden. Two goals below Son in the current Premier League goal standings is Hwang Hee-chan with 10. The Wolves forward will be missed in the West Midlands and feared in west Asia. With Paris Saint-Germain’s Lee Kang-in offering creativity in midfield and Bayern Munich centre-back Kim Min-jae the first Asian defender to be nominated for the Ballon D’Or, there is plenty of talent for South Korea to chose from.

Jürgen Klinsmann, appointed head coach early last year, is lucky. The German came in for criticism in Seoul last summer after poor results and performances added to anger at his perceived reluctance to spend time in the country – 67 days in his first six months according to media – and his smiling explanations that this jet-setting lifestyle, which included conducting press conferences by zoom from California, was part of the natural life of a modern international coach. The situation has improved, both in regards to results and his presence in Korea, but fans are still unsure about the German legend. Klinsmann has asked to be judged on the Asian Cup and, regardless of his coaching abilities, the team certainly have enough to get out of a group containing Bahrain, Malaysia and Jordan. The question is whether or not they can do the business against the very best the 24-team tournament has to offer.

Japan are the clear favourites to win a record fifth continental title. After beating Germany and Spain at the 2022 World Cup, the Samurai Blue then beat Germany again; a 4-1 win in Wolfsburg in September that cost Hansi Flick his job as Die Mannschaft head coach. Such results are no longer surprising for a squad packed full of Europe-based talent, including Wataru Endo, now proving his worth at Liverpool, Kaoru Mitoma of Brighton, currently injured but expected to return for the knockout stages, Takefusa Kubo of Real Sociedad and others.

The last three wins were 5-0 demolitions of Syria and Thailand and then a 6-1 thrashing of Jordan, all teams that have realistic ambitions of getting to the knockout stages. An inability to turn top-class approach play into goals has long been seen as Japan’s major weakness but 45 goals in the last0 1 games –all won – suggest that this is no longer an issue.

Iran should also not be overlooked when it comes to stars operating at the highest level. Mehdi Taremi is an under-rated striker who has been banging them in for years for Porto. Then there is Roma’s Sardar Azmoun and Brentford’s Saman Ghoddos. There remains questions, however, over the ability of Amir Ghalenoi, who underwhelmed in his first spell in charge of Iran in 2007-08, to bring the title back to Tehran for the first time since 1976.

Australia may not have Postecoglou but did reach the final the last time the tournament was held in Qatar back in 2011, losing to Japan. When the Socceroos entered Asia in 2006, they were the star-studded team at the Asian Cup the following year, and while that is no longer the case, Australia should not be counted out. Arnold has built a hard-working, hard-to-beat unit that got out of a tough group at the 2022 World Cup and pushed the eventual winners Argentina all the way in the last 16.

Saudi Arabia beat the soon-to-be world champions during the group stages in Qatar and should spearhead the 10-team Arab challenge. Roberto Mancini has stepped smoothly into Herve Renard’s suave shoes and, after leading Italy to the last European Championships, has a chance to add the Asian title to his CV. The former Manchester City and Internazionale manager has been bold in his selections with a relatively young squad. Results have been mixed, albeit against decent opposition, and there is a school of thought that suggests the next Asian Cup, to be held in Saudi Arabia in three years, is a better bet for Saudi glory.

It would be a surprise if any other team won this year’s Asian Cup. Qatar were the dark horses in 2019 and romped to the title, but even on home soil will struggle to beat Japan and Korea once more. China, who recently lost to Hong Kong for the first time since the handover from the United Kingdom, would be satisfied with a last-eight spot, especially after giving up hosting duties in 2022 due to the strict lockdowns in place at the time. Of the rest, Palestine will attract plenty of interest given the devastation in Gaza.

The winner is likely to be from the west or east, but there are four qualifiers from south-east Asia for the first time in Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand and three from the central region – Uzbekistan (always a dark horse), Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan – while India will be looking to get out of the group for the first time ever. South Korea, and their star captain, have higher ambitions.