NFL betting: Why the Vikings have a legit shot at beating the Cowboys

Asia's Tech News Daily

Last week’s NFL card concluded with New Orleans securing a tough road win in Seattle. However, it wasn’t Saints bettors who spent Monday night celebrating as the Seahawks covered the 5.5-point spread as underdogs. Favorites winning and leaving their fans with a losing ticket has not been the norm in the NFL this season. Typically, if they win the game, they win the bet. This past week, the Seahawks and Lions were the only teams to cover the spread without winning on the scoreboard.

Through the first seven weeks, underdogs who have covered the spread have won the game outright 70% of the time. The percentage rises to 93% when you reduce the sample size to only include underdogs of +3.5 points or less. The Giants at +125 and Colts at +155 were the examples from Week 7.

Picking the right team is far from automatic as short dogs are only 30-23 ATS (9-12 the last three weeks). The value comes from betting the teams that are live underdogs at moneyline prices to maximize your return. Selecting the right teams is the key. So let’s unleash some winning dogs for Week 8.

All lines via BetMGM.

Jacksonville (+150) at Seattle

It’s hard to gauge how much of Seattle’s ineffectiveness with Geno Smith at the helm is a product of playing two stingy defenses in Pittsburgh and New Orleans. It’s not hard to see that the results are very poor. In the last two weeks, Smith’s offense has operated at a 40.9% success rate. Only three teams in the NFL (NYJ, PIT, HOU) are below 40% on the season. On passing plays, the success rate dips 36.5%, which is lower than every single team’s season-long mark. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cam Newton gets a call from Pete Carroll.

Seattle is on a short week after playing on Monday night. A well-rested Jacksonville team should lean heavily on its fourth-ranked rushing attack against an opponent that has allowed the fifth-most rushing first downs in the league. A Seattle defense on sea legs is a prime target for Urban Meyer to take his first real swing at the 250-yard rushing goal he set in September. The Jags’ biggest weakness is in the secondary, so playing a team that has had very little success throwing the football seems like a good matchup. The +150 price implies Jacksonville has a 40% chance of winning. I am betting it’s higher.

Washington (+125) at Denver

Jerry Jeudy is set to return for Denver so you are going to see some support in the market for the Broncos to bounce back. This is another game where I am not certain the favorite has the quarterback to exploit the underdog’s biggest weakness. The Washington secondary has been a nightmare, allowing more passing yards and passing touchdowns than any team in the league. The opportunities will be there for the Denver offense, but Teddy Bridgewater did not look right Thursday night. If the foot or the quad is a lingering issue, Bridgewater’s inability to push the ball down the field will hold back the Broncos’ offense.

The Football Team played much better than the final score indicated against the Packers. Washington outgained the Pack in total yards 430-304 and 6.1 to 5.7 on a per play basis. Scoreboard pressure forced it into some bad decisions, and the team turned the ball over on downs twice inside the 3-yard line. Heinecke also had an interception at the 12-yard line capping off a day in which four trips inside the 30 yielded zero points. Denver’s injuries on defense should allow Washington to put up enough points to make Fangio sweat.

Denver is averaging 16 points per game over the last four weeks and is going to need to get in the high 20s here. With a banged-up Bridgewater, it’s hard to imagine that happening. There is value on the road dog at +125.

Dallas at Minnesota (+115)

I was surprised at first glance to see the Cowboys as only a small favorite but after digging into the data it all makes sense. Minnesota has the secondary to slow down Dallas’ dynamic passing attack. The Vikings’ defense ranks first in success rate per drop-back, second in third-down conversion rate, and fifth in completion percentage allowed. They are also second in adjusted sack rate, so I expect to see Dak Prescott under pressure in one of the toughest stadiums to play in.

Dallas is 6-0 ATS and nobody survives the NFL season unscathed. Mike Zimmer during his time in Minnesota has historically been one of the best bets at home (62% ATS) and is 10-4 ATS as a home underdog. When short dogs cover they win outright, so a Minnesota moneyline makes a lot of sense.

*Stats provided by football outsiders, teamrankings.com, and rbsdm.com (Success rate based off 10-90% WP).

Internet Explorer Channel Network
Asia's Tech News Daily
News Related

OTHER NEWS

Botrányos szavazás és Messi hét csodája

© Technológia: Index.hu Lionel Messi pályafutása hetedik Aranylabdáját nyerte meg hétfőn este Párizsban. A német sajtó kesereg, a L’Équipe hét csodáról ír, a MundoDeportivo pedig az örökkévalóság aranylabdásaként említi az ... Read more »

Danny Cowley outlines Portsmouth's transfer intentions

© Provided by Football League World League One – Portsmouth v Accrington Stanley Portsmouth boss Danny Cowley has told The News that he is hoping that some of the club’s ... Read more »

Sutton makes huge Man Utd Prem prediction; tips title winners

© PA Images Chris Sutton during the Betfred Scottish Cup Final at Hampden Park Chris Sutton has tipped Man Utd to finish in the top four under Ralf Rangnick, while ... Read more »

La « Dream Team » est tombée !

© Fournis par Sports.fr Basket – Qualifs Mondial 2023 (H) : Les Etats-Unis battus Deuxième sortie pour le compte des qualifications du Mondial 2022 et première défaite pour les Etats-Unis. ... Read more »

Pistorius to meet Steenkamp family

© Provided by eNCA Olympic and Paralympic track star Oscar Pistorius (L) looks on next to his brother Carl after an apperance at the North Gauteng High Court in Pretoria ... Read more »

Congé paternité des sportifs : « Et si Pesquet devient papa là-haut, on fait comment dans ce cas ? »

© Chaunu Le congé paternité pour les sportifs, il y a match ! Timoci Nagusa, un rugbyman de Grenoble, en Pro D2, est devenu il y a peu le premier ... Read more »

Golf: Tiger Woods écarte un retour "à plein temps"

© William WEST © 2019 AFP Le golfeur vedette Tiger Woods lors de la Presidents Cup à Melbourne, le 13 décembre 2019 tournament in Melbourne. Tiger Woods, qui se remet ... Read more »

Nach Messi-Wahl: Ronaldo kritisiert Ballon d'Or-Veranstalter

Der Portugiese will – anders als vom Veranstalter betont – von einer Titeljagd mit seinem Langzeit-Rivalen nichts wissen. © APA/AFP/BEN STANSALL Nach der durchaus umstrittenen Wahl von Lionel Messi als ... Read more »

Jakob Pöltl: Mehr als 2000 Rebounds in der NBA

© Bild: USA TODAY Sports Bild: USA TODAY Sports Jakob Pöltl hat am Montag (Ortszeit) beim 116:99 der San Antonio Spurs gegen die Washington Wizards die Marke von 2.000 Rebounds ... Read more »

Rangers pulled off dream swoop for "outstanding" beast whose value has rocketed 75% - opinion

© Provided by Football FanCast Rangers, Ibrox, SPFL, Filip Helander Rangers boss Giovanni van Bronckhorst has had a week to take in his surroundings and assess his current first-team squad ... Read more »

Did you know these 3 interesting facts about Birmingham City?

© Provided by Football League World Championship – Birmingham City v Swansea City Birmingham City embarked on their 11th successive season in the Championship in August, with the Blues currently ... Read more »

Chelsea to face fixture headache that could impact Liverpool and Premier League title race

Chelsea are set to face a bigger fixture headache than the one Liverpool navigated in 2019 with the upcoming FIFA Club World Cup. The competition was originally scheduled to take ... Read more »

NFL picks, predictions against spread Week 13: Bills stop Patriots; Chiefs slow Broncos; 49ers, Dolphins stay hot

The NFL offered some coin-flip games in Week 12, with that, there was bound to some ups and downs the game picks and predictions against the spread. Week 13 offers a few more ... Read more »

Sell or keep? Robert Snodgrass at West Brom as Ismael stance seemingly emerges

© Provided by Football League World Championship – West Bromwich Albion v Middlesbrough West Bromwich Albion are ready to sever ties with midfielder Robert Snodgrass during the January transfer window ... Read more »

Chris Sutton trolls Rangers ban as Celtic hero claims Ibrox lockout 'is like not getting into Lidl'

Chris Sutton has taken a dig at Rangers after he was banned from Ibrox – as he compared the knock back to being turned away from Lidl. Sutton was again ... Read more »

Jack Clarke to Middlesbrough: Is it a good potential move? Would he start? What does he offer?

© Provided by Football League World Jack Clarke n Having opted to replace Neil Warnock with Chris Wilder earlier this month, it will be interesting to see how Middlesbrough will ... Read more »

The latest news on Ben Brereton Diaz's situation at Blackburn Rovers as Sevilla and Leeds United circle

© Provided by Football League World Championship – Blackburn Rovers v Coventry City The continued rise of Ben Brereton Diaz is an exciting one for Blackburn Rovers fans, with the ... Read more »

Le président de l'Antwerp veut s'attaquer au petit groupe de supporters : "Nous allons vraiment devoir résoudre ce problème"

Paul Gheysens, le président de l’Antwerp, constate que son équipe commence à aller dans la bonne direction. Pas encore comme il le souhaite, mais les pièces du puzzle semblent s’assembler. ... Read more »

Deux fédérations africaines ont été placées sous tutelle par la FIFA

Pour rétablir un semblant d’ordre au sein des fédérations en question, l’instance internationale a attribué des comités de normalisation à chacune de ces fédérations. © photonews La fédération guinéenne de ... Read more »

Greg Rusedski explains why it will be ‘harder' for Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal to win more Grand Slams

Greg Rusedski has warned Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal that the younger generation are “here now” and will make it difficult for them to add to their Grand Slam tallies. ... Read more »

German court to rule on ex-IS member in Yazidi girl's death

BERLIN (AP) — A court in the German city of Frankfurt is expected to issue a verdict Tuesday in the trial of a former Islamic State member accused of killing ... Read more »

Ralph Hasenhuttl ready to press the reset button at Southampton

Ralph Hasenhuttl has urged Southampton to hit the reset button as they attempt to return to winning ways. The Saints, who host Leicester on Wednesday, saw their four-game unbeaten Premier ... Read more »

By The Numbers: Jonas Valanciunas' record-breaking career-night against Clippers

Jonas Valanciunas will remember Monday night for his lifetime.  The Lithuanian big man had a game for the ages, setting and breaking multiple records in the process, and helping the ... Read more »

Lionel Messi is well past his best but this seventh Ballon d'Or feels right

And so it was Lionel Messi again, for the seventh time and, barring the most extraordinary of all career finales at the World Cup in Qatar, surely the last. Whatever ... Read more »

MotoGp, Mauro Sanchini lancia l'allarme su Marc Marquez

© Fornito da Sportal.it Il commentatore di Sky Sanchini: “La sua invincibilità è stata minata”. Il commentatore tecnico di Sky Mauro Sanchini in una intervista a MotoSprint ha parlato del ... Read more »

Nba: Chicago Bulls ok, cadono gli Heat

© Fornito da Rai Sport Nikola Jokic Il derby dei fratelli Ball lo vince Lonzo e Chicago rilancia il suo guanto di sfida a Brooklyn. Grande prova dei Bulls contro ... Read more »

La Rassegna Stampa dei principali quotidiani sportivi italiani di martedì 30 novembre 2021

Nemmeno il tempo di prendere fiato e la Serie A torna in campo con il turno infrasettimanale valido per la 15ª giornata di campionato. Quattro gli anticipi previsti oggi: si ... Read more »

Successo dell'atleta del Baratoff

Il quarto finale al Challenger di Bari è il primo conquistato da Luca Nardi in carriera. All’ennesimo tentativo di quest’anno il tennista del Baratoff ha superato i primi due turni ... Read more »

Woods “Tornerò a giocare ma non più a tempo pieno”

TORINO (ITALPRESS) – Si ferma nei quarti di finale il cammino dell’Italia in Coppa Davis: sul veloce indoor del Pala Alpitour di Torino gli azzurri cedono per 2-1 alla Croazia. ... Read more »

WEC | G-Drive e APR insieme nel 2022, si corre anche a Daytona

La G-Drive Racing tornerà a correre per una intera annata del FIA World Endurance Championship nel 2022. © JEP / Motorsport Images #25 G-Drive Racing Aurus 01 – Gibson: John ... Read more »

Adriano Panatta, parole chiare su Jannik Sinner e Lorenzo Sonego

© Fornito da Sportal.it Panatta fa un bilancio dopo l’eliminazione dell’Italia: “Grande manifestazione, ma non c’entra nulla con la vera Davis”. Adriano Panatta in un’intervista al Corriere della Sera ha ... Read more »

Andriy Shevchenko set for 'emotional' reunion when AC Milan visit Genoa

© Alessandro Sabattini Andriy Shevchenko has overseen two matches as Genoa manager and next faces former club AC Milan. Getty Images It has been a while since the Ballon d’Or ... Read more »

Yasser Al Misehal: SAFF president clarifies stance on Fifa's study into biennial World Cup

© RUEL PABLEO Yasser Al Misehal, president of Saudi Arabian Football Federation, has spoken to The National to explain the SAFF’s position on Fifa’s feasibility study into hosting the World ... Read more »

Jeddah circuit ready for Saudi Arabian Grand Prix - in pictures

© Provided by The National AP Photo A boy hugs a racing car promoting the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix at the King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah. © Provided by ... Read more »

Today's rugby headlines as Cardiff face 28-0 defeat amid Covid chaos and French legend suffers serious knee injuries

Here are your rugby headlines for Tuesday, November 30. Cardiff face 28-0 defeat Cardiff Rugby face an automatic 28-0 defeat if they fail to field a team for forthcoming European ... Read more »

French authorities announce France's first case of the omicron variant, in the Indian Ocean island territory of Reunion

PARIS — French authorities announce France’s first case of the omicron variant, in the Indian Ocean island territory of Reunion. Read more »

1st French omicron case on Indian Ocean island of Reunion

‘Very early days’ in knowledge of omicron variant ABC News contributor Dr. John Brownstein discusses what we do and don’t know about the new omicron variant and its impact on ... Read more »

Rights group: Taliban kill, abduct dozens of ex-officers

KABUL — Taliban fighters have summarily killed or forcibly “disappeared” more than 100 former police and intelligence officers since taking power in Afghanistan, Human Rights Watch said in a report ... Read more »

Liverpool and Boston Red Sox owners Fenway Sports Group reach deal to buy NHL giants Pittsburgh Penguins as they add five-time Stanley Cup winners to their impressive sports portfolio... and new investor LeBron James is eyeing an NBA team next

Liverpool owners Fenway Sports Group have added a team to their portfolioThey have reached an agreement to take over NHL giants Pittsburgh PenguinsJohn W Henry and Co already own Liverpool, as well as the Boston Red SoxNew investor LeBron James has expressed an interest in owning an NBA team  Read more »

John Sillett, who won the league title with Chelsea as a player then managed Coventry to stunning FA Cup triumph at Wembley in 1987, has died aged 85

John Sillett, who managed Coventry to FA Cup glory in 1987, has died aged 85The Sky Blues beat Tottenham 3-2 in a memorable final at Wembley StadiumHe managed the club between 1986 and 1990, leading them to 7th in 1988-89As a player, Sillett was part of Chelsea's league title winners in 1954-55  Read more »
On free-english-test.com you will find lots of free English exam practice materials to help you improve your English skills: grammar, listening, reading, writing, ielts, toeic