Soggy weekend to precede record-challenging warmup in the East

Easterners might have to be forgiven for thinking March was skipped over and the calendar actually flipped to April, as rain showers this weekend in the region will give way to another stretch of warm weather into the new week.

While rain should fall in most areas, at least to begin the weekend, AccuWeather meteorologists are warning that the warmup will be uneven next week, as clouds and moisture could linger for several days in some of the big Northeast cities and near the Atlantic coast.

For many across the interior, the temperatures forecast next week will represent the warmest readings so far this season. With the unseasonable warmth coming in the wake of fresh rain, it could lead to early blooming of some flowers and budding of leaves on trees in parts of the region, despite it only being early March.

For the warmth to return, first, some rain has to fall in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

“After the cold shot this week, things will begin to warm up again over the weekend,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Dean DeVore. “However, it will come at the cost of a soaking rain that will be around into Saturday along the I-95 corridor.”

A developing storm which was picking up moisture from both the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean was soaking parts of the South on Friday. That storm will move up the East Coast into the start of the weekend, spreading rain first across the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and in the Washington, D.C., and Baltimore area on Friday night, and then from Philadelphia to New York City into New England on Saturday.

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During the approximately 12-18 hours of rainy weather, up to an inch of rain will be common from the nation’s capital to Boston, while lesser amounts can be expected farther inland from the Ohio Valley into upstate New York. For more urban areas, the rain could come down heavy enough to overwhelm drainage systems, resulting in minor flooding for those who have to travel to begin the weekend.

The cold air preceding this storm could result in an icy mix and slippery travel in the higher ground of northeastern Pennsylvania, far northwestern New Jersey and New York State to start the weekend.

While astronomical spring is still a few weeks away, Friday marked the start of meteorological spring, the three months of the year when temperatures ramp up quickest in the run-up to summer. For millions in the central and eastern portion of the country, no matter which definition of the season you prefer, a spring fever will break out into the first full week of March.

Expanding from the Plains and Midwest, and arriving in the interior of the East following the rain, temperatures will soar into the 60s and 70s from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys beginning this weekend to as far north and east as cities such as Albany, New York, and Burlington, Vermont, next week.

Not only will these temperatures be as much as 20-30 degrees above the historical average for early March, they will challenge dozens of long-standing record highs. Pittsburgh is among the cities that could approach a record high next week (74 on Monday, set in 1992) amid a run of summerlike weather.

Meanwhile, some coastal northeasterners may become jealous of their counterparts farther west, as clouds and moisture lingering into the new week could spoil the warmup there.

“With little wind expected in the wake of the early weekend rainstorm, the southwestern flow of warmer air in the Northeast could be interrupted,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski. “Because of that, low clouds may be slow to break in parts of the East, delaying the warming.”

The prolonged cloudiness will primarily be an issue from Delmarva north through the Delaware Valley, Jersey Shore, New York City Tri-State area and throughout New England. Temperatures in the region, while still on the mild side for early March, can be as much as 10-15 degrees lower through at least Tuesday than they otherwise would be with more sunshine.

The unseasonable warmth seen during the heart of the winter from the nation’s midsection to the East, followed by this expected warm start to March, will have agricultural and floral consequences.

The National Phenology Network, which tracks when and where small leaves start appearing on trees, and when perennial flowers such as crocuses and tulips start blooming, is reporting that spring has already arrived across a broad swath of the nation. As of Mar. 1, the leading edge of first leaves extended from northern Missouri to southern Ohio and east to the mid-Atlantic coast, about two to three weeks ahead of schedule.

With the prolonged warmup expected to last through much of the new week, along with temperatures staying above freezing at night, that line of spring blooming should slowly creep north, enveloping more of the Ohio Valley and lower elevations east of the Appalachians in the mid-Atlantic. Indianapolis; Columbus, Ohio; Morgantown, West Virginia; Dover, Delaware; and Philadelphia are among the cities that can see green vegetation by mid-March.

The consequences of this earlier start to spring would be an earlier-than-average pollen season, as well as the appearance of cherry blossoms in Washington, D.C., that might precede the annual festival that begins this year on Mar. 20.

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