New model predicts Covid cases drop to 9,000 per day by March 2022

© Provided by Daily Mail MailOnline logo

The end of the COVID-19 pandemic may be near with cases and deaths declining to levels not seen in more than a year by next spring, a new model predicts.

The analysis, conducted by the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), looked at different scenarios regarding the trajectory of the pandemic.

Researchers predicted that the U.S. has reached the peak of the fourth wave fueled by the Delta variant and will see all indicators improve.

This includes the number of virus cases dropping to about 9,000 per day and the number of daily deaths falling below 100 by March 2022.

© Provided by Daily Mail (
© Provided by Daily Mail (

‘Any of us who have been following this closely, given what happened with Delta, are going to be really cautious about too much optimism,’ Dr Justin Lessler, a professor of epidemiology at the University of North Carolina, who is part of the Hub’s Coordination Team, told NPR.

‘But I do think that the trajectory is towards improvement for most of the country.’  

For the new model, which was published on Wednesday, the team amalgamated nine different models from universities across the U.S.

Researchers came up with four different scenarios depending on whether or not children between ages five and 11 are authorized to get vaccinated and whether or not a new variant starts spreading.

Lessler told NPR that the most likely scenario sees kids being approved for Covid shots against and no highly transmissible strain being identified.

According to the model, this sees weekly COVID-19 cases declining from the current 993,279, or 141,897 per day, to 63,383 weekly cases, or 9,054 per day by March 2022.

Deaths would also fall from 11,563 weekly deaths now, or 1,651 per day, to 415 weekly fatalities, or about 59 per day. 

These are figures not seen since late March 2020, when states first began shutting down and implementing stay-at-home orders. 

Notably, the model predicts there won’t be a surge in winter as was seen last year, but the researchers tell NPR there will be variability between states.  

In the worst case scenario, in which children aren’t approved for vaccination and a new variant that is 1.5 times more transmissible starts circulating, cases and deaths would still decline – but not by as much.

© Provided by Daily Mail (
© Provided by Daily Mail (

The model predicts this scenario would led to weekly cases falling to 467,507, or 66,786 daily infections, and 4,922 weekly deaths, or 703 daily deaths by next spring.

These numbers are similar to levels that were seen during summer 2020, amid the second wave of the pandemic, and in April 2021, following the deadly third wave.   

The team warns Americans not to led their guards up and to keep following mitigation measures, such as wearing masks in public.

‘We have to be cautious because the virus has shown us time and time again that new variants or people loosening up on how careful they’re being can lead things to come roaring back,’ Lessler told NPR. 

‘I think a lot of people have been tending to think that with this surge, it just is never going to get better. And so maybe I just need to stop worrying about it and take risks. But I think these projections show us there is a light at the end of the tunnel.’

Internet Explorer Channel Network
News Related


Macaulay Culkin pushes son in a stroller with Brenda Song in LA

© Provided by Daily Mail MailOnline logo He became a dad for the first time earlier this year. And Macaulay Culkin relished in his fatherly role while stopping by the ... Read more »

10 Iconic Australian Gin Brands To Sip Back On For World Gin & Tonic Day

© Instagram @nice_martin The gin market is booming and whether your tastes run traditional or trendy, read on for our favourite Australian gin brands to try now. Once associated with ... Read more »

Jessica Simpson regains 'complete ownership' of her billion-dollar fashion brand: 'It means the absolute world to me'

Jessica Simpson has regained complete ownership of her billion-dollar fashion label, the Jessica Simpson Collection. The singer is now back in charge of her business after parent company Sequential Brands ... Read more »

New photos released as search for Cleo Smith enters fourth day

A storm is threatening to complicate the search for missing four-year-old Cleo Smith as Western Australia Police release new photos of the sleeping bag that vanished with her. Huge resources ... Read more »

Mum's plea for justice after Doonside teen's alleged murder

The mother of 16-year-old Jason Galleghan has made an emotional plea to the community to help fight for justice for her son, who was allegedly murdered. Jason was found unresponsive ... Read more »

Qld aims to keep border open after Dec 17

Queensland is aiming to permanently keep its domestic borders open after December 17 with the premier revealing COVID-19 quarantine requirements could also be eased for international arrivals. © Dave Hunt/AAP ... Read more »

Vic has 1749 new local cases, 11 deaths

Victoria has recorded 1749 new locally acquired COVID-19 cases and 11 deaths, as the end of Melbourne’s sixth lockdown nears. © Daniel Pockett/AAP PHOTOS Jeroen Weimar says firms should split ... Read more »

Jane Fonda calls for an end to offshore drilling with state lawmakers

© Provided by Daily Mail MailOnline logo Jane Fonda attended a press conference where she called for an end to offshore drilling on Monday. The actress, 83, was accompanied by ... Read more »

Missing Vic campers' families beg for info

The disappearance of two campers who went missing in Victoria’s rugged high country 19 months ago is still confounding police and their families. © PR HANDOUT IMAGE PHOTO Russell Hill ... Read more »

BOM forecasts potentially record temperatures during Northern Territory heatwave

© Provided by ABC NEWS The Darwin Waterfront wave pool, where Josh Spera works, could be in for a busy week during the heatwave. (ABC News: Che Chorley) A heatwave ... Read more »

'Smart' cane helps blind avoid obstacles with autonomous car tech

© Provided by Daily Mail MailOnline logo Researchers at Stanford University have developed a robotic ‘smart’ cane that guides people with visual impairments using technology originated for autonomous vehicles.    Most ... Read more »

Roger Marshall introduces bill to BAN gain-of-function research

© Provided by Daily Mail MailOnline logo Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kansas, is leading a group of Republicans who will introduce legislation to halt all federal funding for gain-of-function research after ... Read more »

Doogee V10 rugged smartphone

© Provided by TechRadar Doogee V10 Review Listing Two minute review Doogee introduced a new line of flagship rugged smartphones eschewing the S-prefix for the V one. The first in ... Read more »

Retail to open, outdoor masks to go and travel to Sydney allowed under major changes to ACT COVID-19 roadmap

© Provided by ABC Business The ACT government has announced major changes to its roadmap, including the re-opening of non-essential retail to customers from this Friday.  (ABC News: Ian Cutmore) ... Read more »

NSW records 273 new COVID-19 cases, four deaths

New South Wales recorded 273 COVID-19 cases in the 24 hours to 8pm last night. A further four people have died with the virus in the same time-frame. The results ... Read more »

‘A Covid incubator': outbreak in Melbourne refugee detention hotel grows as vaccination rate lags

A Covid outbreak among refugees and asylum seekers inside Melbourne’s Park Hotel has grown to as many as six, with growing concern lagging vaccination rates – and the forced confinement ... Read more »

The Best Smart Home Hubs to Control All Your Devices

Whether you’ve just screwed in new Wi-Fi controlled light bulbs or installed the latest video doorbell camera, you may have noticed that each smart home device requires its own app ... Read more »

Melbourne Fashion Week hoped to bring Melbourne CBD back to life

It’s hoped Melbourne Fashion Week will help get Melbourne’s CBD back to life, with 100 live catwalk events set to take place in the city next month. The annual show ... Read more »

Emergency services at the scene after being called to house explosion in Ayr

Three people have been taken to hospital following an explosion at a housing estate in the Scottish town of Ayr. Residents have been evacuated from the Kincaidston area, near the ... Read more »

Amess killing: Terror suspect allegedly tricked MP's staff by lying about his plans

CCTV shows a man believed to be Ali Harbi Ali walking outside a convenience store in Highgate Road at 8.44am on Friday – Sky News The man suspected of murdering ... Read more »

Are cryptominers going to buy up all the new MacBook Pro stock?

The new MacBook Pro 14-inch and MacBook Pro 16-inch (2021) laptops are now official, and they are some seriously strong candidates for the best laptops ever made if Apple’s claims ... Read more »

Emma Watkins' endometriosis advice

© Provided by Are Media Pty Ltd With more than 10 per cent of Australian women suffering from it, endometriosis is often left misdiagnosed or undiagnosed. But Emma Watkins, also ... Read more »

Emma Wiggle on her endometriosis

© Provided by Are Media Pty Ltd Emma Wiggle has opened up about her struggle with endometriosis in an emotional Instagram post – and her words have clearly resonated with ... Read more »

Keira Maguire on having narcissistic personality traits

© Provided by Are Media Pty Ltd Keira Maguire shot to fame as the the tell-it-like-it-is “villain” on Richie Strahan’s season of The Bachelor in 2016. The 35-year-old, who later ... Read more »

Yellow Wiggle Emma Watkins has announced she is hanging up her yellow skivvy for good

© Provided by Are Media Pty Ltd It’s a sad day for children everywhere because Emma Watkins has decided to hang up her yellow skivvy and leave The Wiggles for ... Read more »

Xero wants to help your employees run all their own processes

Xero has announced a reimagined version of its employee self-service app Xero Me which now comes with integrated expenses technology to make it easier for both organizations and their employees ... Read more »

Krispy Kreme is giving away free Halloween themed doughnuts

© Provided by Daily Mail MailOnline logo Krispy Kreme has launched a limited-edition Halloween doughnut range – and you can get some for free if you’re willing to get into ... Read more »

Yellow Wiggle Emma Watkins' new look

© Provided by Are Media Pty Ltd The Yellow Wiggle Emma Watkins is unrecognisable in a new photo as she swaps her signature red curls for a platinum blonde wig, ... Read more »

The Wiggles' Emma Watkins announces she's leaving the children's group

Beloved Yellow Wiggle Emma Watkins has announced she is leaving the children’s group at the end of the year. The performer revealed the news in a statement and video shared ... Read more »

WORLD OF GOLF: McIlroy's resilience is his most overlooked quality

© Provided by Daily Mail MailOnline logo All that any sportsman can do after failure on an epic scale is sift through the debris and try to go again.  After ... Read more »

Blueprint for green UK WILL see ban on gas boilers by 2035

© Provided by Daily Mail MailOnline logo Ministers will press ahead with plans to ban the installation of conventional gas boilers by 2035 – despite warnings that the move could provoke ... Read more »

University of Melbourne staff doing unpaid work to give students feedback, tutor says

© Provided by ABC Business Bernd Bartl says tutors are not paid enough to cover the time it takes to mark assignments. (ABC News: Patrick Stone) Students at the prestigious University ... Read more »

Bills vs Titans live stream: how to watch NFL Monday Night Football online anywhere

The Bills are fast emerging as one of the leading lights for the AFC Championship, and after a dominant, brilliant, statement victory over the Chiefs, can Josh Allen and co ... Read more »

ALEX BRUMMER: Britain sounds the air raid siren over Meggitt deal

© Provided by This Is Money MailOnline logo As the archdeacon of free market capitalism, the Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng might have seemed an unlikely candidate to bring the proposed ... Read more »

WA farmers push back against Nationals' lack of climate commitment

© Provided by ABC NEWS Simon Wallwork and his partner Cindy Stevens have noticed major changes in the climate during their 18 years of farming. ( Supplied: Simon Wallwork) A group ... Read more »

UK to increase grants to help homeowners ditch gas boilers

LONDON (Reuters) – Britain will increase grants to homeowners to remove their gas boilers and replace them with greener technology such as heat pumps as the government tries to tackle ... Read more »

Melissa Joan Hart wins million dollars on Celebrity Wheel of Fortune

© Provided by Daily Mail MailOnline logo Melissa Joan Hart is the first million dollar winner in Celebrity Wheel of Fortune history. The 45-year-old Sabrina the Teenage Witch actress took ... Read more »

Apple's second-gen AirPods got a permanent $30 price cut

Apple announced its third-generation AirPods during today’s big hardware event: a $179 set of earbuds that are much closer to the AirPods Pro in terms of features and design. Though, ... Read more »

Adjusting system language on Windows 11

© Provided by Windows Central If you have to change the system language on Windows 11, you can do so without reinstalling. Windows 11 makes it easy to change the ... Read more »