How the West lost the artillery shell race and what it means for Ukraine

A Ukrainian soldier carries an artillery shell near Kremmina, Donetsk Oblast – Diego Herrera Carcedo/Getty

As the weather worsens and front lines are frozen in place, Ukraine is struggling to secure enough artillery shells to change the equation.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned key shipments of 155mm munitions have dropped off after fighting erupted between Israel and Hamas last month.

Both Ukraine and Russia have struggled to maintain stockpiles of shells after nearly two years of long-range duels across vast battlefields.

But recently Moscow has received one million shells from its ally North Korea in 10 separate shipments since August, according to South Korea’s intelligence service.

This has helped sustain Russian forces in a renewed attempt to capture Avdiivka, pummelling the Donetsk region town relentlessly with artillery fire.

At the same time, the European Union has conceded its one-year target to deliver a million shells to Kyiv by next March will not be reached.

The bloc has delivered around 300,000 shells, mainly from national stockpiles, since the programme started on Feb 9.

Diplomats and ministers moved to blame Europe’s production capabilities and a failure to significantly ramp up manufacturing, for the lacklustre performance.

Ukraine was estimated to be firing around 6,000 155mm rounds a day, according to Western intelligence figures, whereas Russia was firing 20,000 a day – the same amount produced by European manufacturers each month.

Rates of fire often varied depending on intensity of fighting and external supplies.

The release of dual-purpose improved conventional munition (DPICM) clusters by the United States eased some of the problems because there were significant stockpiles of those shells.

“This has helped mitigate fears of artillery ammunition shortage, especially in light of commitments in Israel,” Justin Crump, CEO of strategic intelligence company Sibylline, said.

Artillery ammunition is one of the main demands from Ukraine when it holds talks with its Western allies about support for its war effort.

Kyiv recently received a promise for more 155mm shells from Germany as part of a €1.4 billion military aid package.

Meanwhile, the US is rushing to ramp up shell production to replenish reserves of munitions now being drained by both Ukraine and Israel.

Earlier this month, the US Army urged Congress to approve $3.1 billion in funding to buy 155mm artillery rounds and expand production.

Of the $3.1 billion specific to 155mm artillery, about half would go to boosting industrial capacity with the remainder going to buying rounds, said Doug Bush, the chief weapons buyer for the US Army.

A Ukrainian soldier fires artillery as the war continues in the direction of Bakhmut – Diego Herrera Carcedo/Getty

The US plans to increase its production rate for 155mm artillery shells to 100,000 a month. But it is not expected to hit that target until 2025.

The slow pace with which allies are boosting artillery production means Ukraine is unlikely to be able to tip the balance on the battlefield.

Experts say it will likely be able to cling on, however.

“[Ukraine] could certainly use more, but for now both sides have sufficient supplies to maintain the fight, albeit rarely to move the front line under current conditions,” said Mr Crump.

In response to the repeated requests from Kyiv, Western governments have argued they are aiming to equip Ukraine’s forces with higher-quality long-range weapon systems.

The introduction of the air-launched Storm Shadow cruise missile, donated by Britain and France, and the US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), have significantly helped overcome Russia’s advantage in numbers.

The Kremlin’s artillery advantage has been gradually eroded in almost 20 months of fighting, with Russian forces losing around 600 guns and launchers.

Moscow is believed to be losing four times more artillery systems than Kyiv on the main axes of the southern counter-offensive.

But still without shells, Ukraine will not be able to hold back Russian advances, nor attempt to advance in the future.

The situation is a growing concern, Mr Crump said, as a Cold War-era surplus of artillery munitions meant factories were shut down.

“With stockpiles of all sorts drawing down, and long lead times to replace, this does create a point of Western vulnerability that should cause policymakers concern,” he added.

‘We need three victories’

Mr Zelensky on Friday outlined three key “victories” that his country had to secure on the international front – two of which were centred on arms deliveries.

“We need three victories. The first one is the victory with [the] US Congress. It’s a challenge, it’s not easy, but Ukraine is doing everything,” Mr Zelensky told a news conference in Kyiv.

President Joe Biden has asked Congress to approve many billions of dollars in assistance for Ukraine, but Kyiv’s funding was omitted from a stop-gap spending bill passed last week, raising concerns it may not get through in the face of stiff opposition from a vocal bloc of Republicans.

Mr Zelensky also zeroed in on a €50 billion package from the EU that was announced earlier for Ukraine, but has not yet been approved and is so far opposed by Hungary.

“The second [victory] is we need the help from the EU on the €50 billion package,” the Ukrainian leader said. “And the third is to open a dialogue about our future membership.”

Kyiv hopes the European Union’s members will agree at a summit on Dec 14-15 to formally launch the long process of talks for Kyiv to join the bloc, a move that Mr Zelensky said would improve Ukrainian morale.

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