What major analysts say bitcoin ETF approval means for Coinbase shares

Cryptocurrencies have faced a turbulent few days in anticipation of — and reaction to — the Securities and Exchange Commission finally approving trading in 11 new spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. These newly-launched ETFs spell good news for the crypto market, since they help legitimize an industry that has long been viewed skeptically by regulators and institutional investors alike. The ETFs will also ease the way for retail investors to trade in crypto, giving them the ability to buy and sell various coins through a traditional vehicle that they're already familiar with. But while attention has focused on the spot bitcoin ETF race, other likely winners have also emerged, including Coinbase . After soaring almost 400% in 2023, shares of the crypto exchange platform had plunged 13% to start the new year through Wednesday, and are swining between gains and losses Thursday. Bitcoin has risen more than 10%. COIN 1Y mountain Coinbase 1-year stock chart Pluses and minuses “We see the impact of a Bitcoin ETF as having both positive and risky elements for Coinbase, but given the appreciation of Coinbase's stock price, we see the risks as more relevant to shareholders,” wrote JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington. Worthington added that Coinbase is likely to benefit from being the custodian of choice for the new ETFs, having already been tapped for that by 8 of the 11 funds. On the other hand, the analyst added that a particularly successful bitcoin ETF might also serve as a competitor for Coinbase. This might erode the platform's volume and redirect potential customers, ultimately placing downward pressure on its trading spreads and commissions. Wedbush, which has an outperform rating on Coinbase, raised its price target on the stock by 64%, to $180 from $110. This implies that Coinbase shares could rally nearly 19% from their Wednesday close of $151.29. “We believe COIN's future results are bound to benefit from the SEC's Bitcoin ETF approvals, given the company's dominant role in these ETFs, ETFs facilitation/unlocking of incremental institutional investing in crypto assets (now under 10%), as well as recent legal/financial woes impacting COIN's peers (re. Binance),” wrote Wedbush analyst Moshe Katri. In addition to generating revenue from custodian and administrative fees, Katri believes that the ETF approvals could benefit Coinbase by potentially giving the platform more retail and institutional investor clients, such as hedge funds. More immediately, Wedbush also expects a boost for Coinbase from recent, heightened trading activity. “We also expect P & L tailwinds from recent, December quarter's volatility (40%) increase in crypto asset prices, in-line with Q1/CY23's levels, favorably driving the company's trading volume mix,” Katri wrote. Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev, however, believes that the approval of the Bitcoin ETFs is likely to result in only a “pyrrhic victory” for Coinbase shares. “Potential upside to COIN's revenue from Bitcoin ETF may be more muted than thought, with just 1-2% benefit from custody fees and 5-10% total benefit if the ETFs drive additional spot Bitcoin trading,” Dolev wrote. “Plus, deeper cannibalization of high-margin spot Bitcoin trading and/or share loss to brokers offering ETF could offset future benefits.” Once the initial reaction wears off, Dolev expects coming quarters to show weakening fundamentals to Coinbase's business, bringing a “painful reality check” to the stock. Mizuho reiterated an underperform rating on the exchange platform, with a $54 price target corresponding to 64% downside for the shares. “This [price target] is in the same ballpark as exchange peers, but represents a discount to other high-growth fintech due to the outlook for pricing compression over time,” Dolev wrote. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.