Network18 Exclusive: Amit Shah explains his math behind NDA's 'Abki Baar 400 Paar'
Union Home Minister and BJP leader Amit Shah addresses a public meeting for Lok Sabha elections, in Hubballi, on 1 May, 2024. PTI
As the political landscape of India is busy with elections, the nation is abuzz with speculations and forecasts. In an interview with Network18 MD and Group Editor-in-Chief Rahul Joshi, Union Home Minister and senior Bharatiya Janata Party leader Amit Shah shared insights into the party’s strategies, expectations and projections for various states across the country.
The Gujarat math
In Gujarat, a stronghold of the BJP, Shah expressed confidence in securing all 26 seats in the upcoming elections with margins expected to surpass those of the previous elections. Shah’s optimism reflects the party’s unwavering dominance in the state.
“Certainly, we will get all 26 seats in Gujarat. And the margins will also be higher than in the 2019 elections for all seats. We will win all 26 seats and our margins will also go up,” Shah said.
The senior BJP leader also said that although there is some disappointment among the Kshatriyas, he has “full faith that everything will be fine”.
The Karnataka calculation
Despite recent challenges and alliances, Shah remains steadfast in his belief that the BJP will maintain its position in Karnataka, echoing his confidence in retaining a significant portion of the seats. In 2019, BJP delivered a stellar performance but was defeated in the recent Karnataka Assembly polls.
Karnataka grabbed headlines this week after state MP and grandson of JDS chief and former prime minister HD Deve Gowda was allegedly seen in explicit videos sexually assaulting multiple women. Significantly, the videos surfaced on social media days before the second phase of the ongoing Lok Sabha elections.
“I have made the stand of the Bharatiya Janata Party clear that the strictest steps should be taken. But Priyanka ji and Rahul ji are saying why steps are not being taken. Perhaps they do not understand the position. The law and order of a state has to be dealt with by the state government. And they are in power there. They have to take the steps, not us,” said Shah.
Giving his expectations from Karnataka, the Union home minister said, “One election is yet to be held, but I think that more or less we will keep our position intact.”
In the 2019 General Elections, BJP had won 25 seats out of 28.
The Maharashtra permutation
Amid the political turmoil in Maharashtra, Shah emphasized the people’s support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, asserting that whoever aligns with Modi will garner votes. He predicted a repeat performance in Maharashtra with the BJP likely to secure a substantial number of seats. In a stranger than fiction scenario in Maharashtra where two parties have split — Shiv Sena and the NCP — with one faction of each with the BJP, the fight is over who is original.
“The people of Maharashtra are with Modiji, whoever is with Modiji will get votes. This election is being fought to decide who becomes the country’s prime minister. There are two sides. One is the NDA under the leadership of Narendra Modiji. And the other is Rahul (Gandhi) Baba, Sharad Pawar, Mamata Didi, Stalin, Tejashwi Yadav, Lalu Yadav, who are heading the INDI Alliance, which has no leader,” said Shah.
Drawing a comparison to Prime Minister Modi’s stainless image, the Union home minister highlighted the INDI Alliance’s alleged entanglement in corruption scandals and preferring family over people while actually the mandate is to work for the people.
“Now the people of the country have to decide which person to pick. On the one hand is the INDI Alliance responsible for scams and corruption worth Rs 12 lakh crore. On the other hand, there is Narendra Modi who despite being a chief minister and Prime Minister for 23 years has never been accused of corruption of even twenty-five paise. On the one hand, there is a group that goes on vacations as soon as the summers come. Foreign vacations because the heat is very high here. And on the other hand, there is Narendra Modi who did not take leave even on the day of Diwali for 23 years and celebrated Diwali with the soldiers at the border. On the one hand, there are political parties that work for their sons, daughters, nephews, and daughters-in-law, and on the other hand, there is Narendra Modi who works for the poor, the women, the farmers, and the youth of the country,” he said.
Given the context, Shah made it clear it depends on the people to make the right choice.
“So, the people of the country have to decide whether they want a person who will protect the nation or those who will put the country at risk for votes. Do they want a person who will develop the economy of the country or those who will sink the economy? The people of the country have decided Rahulji, the people of the country are with Narendra Modi ji, and the party which is with Modi ji will get votes. This election is to make Narendra Modi ji the prime minister,” the senior BJP leader said.
The Union home minister exuberated confidence that BJP will win around 41 seats which it had last time in 2019 out of the total 48 seats.
“Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Delhi, Gujarat and Karnataka, we will repeat the results there,” said Shah.
Going north in Uttar Pradesh
Aiming high, Shah envisions a remarkable feat in Uttar Pradesh, suggesting the possibility of winning all 80 seats if circumstances align favourably. This ambitious projection reflects the BJP’s determination to strengthen its position in the crucial state.
“In Uttar Pradesh, we will increase our seats by five to seven. In Uttar Pradesh, increasing seats means… if everything goes well, we can win 80 out of 80,” the Union home minister said.
In the 2019 General Elections, BJP had won 62 seats and its ally Apna Dal(S) managed to pocket two seats.
Uttar Pradesh has some big names in fray particularly from the regional Samajwadi Party with party chief Akhilesh Yadav contesting from Kannauj, his wife Dimple from Mainpuri and other family members from Firozabad and Azamgarh among other seats.
“I have said it’s a possibility that we can win 80 out of 80. It is certain that our seats will increase,” said Shah.
Commenting on the uncertainty over Congress leaders Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi if they are going to fight the elections from Uttar Pradesh, the Union home minister said the brother-sister duo have lost confidence in themselves.
“These people have lost their self-confidence. They don’t have the self-confidence to fight even from their ancestral seat. If they didn’t want to fight, why have they kept the decision on the seat pending for so long? If they had given it to a worker, at least he could have done some public outreach. This confusion somewhere reflects the lack of self-confidence,” Shah said.
Odisha oracle
In Odisha, where the BJP has severed ties with the ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Shah highlighted the party’s commitment to prioritise the state’s development while maintaining its cultural integrity. He expressed confidence in the BJP’s prospects, anticipating support from the people of Odisha.
“In Odisha, we will go up to 16. And in Assam also we will go above 12, it may be 12,” the Union home minister said.
Shah also expressed his doubts over the pace of development in the east coast state.
“I clearly believe that Odisha is lagging in terms of development. Along with this, the language of Odisha, the culture of Odisha, the fabric of Odisha and its dignity are also being seriously hurt. The Bharatiya Janata Party believes that the culture of any state should not be tampered with. The development of every state should take place by exploiting its maximum potential, which is not happening in Odisha at the moment. That is why we have decided that we will fight separately. I am fully confident that this time the people of Odisha will bless the Bharatiya Janata Party under the leadership of Modi ji,” the Union home minister told Network18’s Rahul Joshi.
BJP is no waste in West Bengal
“In West Bengal, we will win at least 30 seats,” Shah said.
In 2019, BJP had won 18 out of 42 seats in state Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s backyard.
Bihar battle
About Bihar, Shah expressed confidence that his party will win a considerable number of seats despite the alliance that is getting formed with RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav and others trying to cut some BJP votes.
In the last Lok Sabha polls, BJP had won 22 constituencies out of 40 in the state.
South symphony
Venturing into the southern states, Shah projected a significant presence for the BJP, particularly in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where the party aims to open its electoral account. He expressed optimism about the BJP’s performance in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, citing alliances and strategic campaigning efforts as key factors.
“In south, all four states combined, we will be ahead of Congress,” he said.
Although the Union home minister refrained from giving any figure in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, he was optimistic of BJP making an electoral debut in the states in terms of winning a seat.
“We have fought a very good election and will definitely open our account. But estimating the seats there is a problem because there are very close fights,” the Union home minister said.
The senior BJP leader also expected a good performance by the BJP in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.
“We have an alliance in Andhra Pradesh. We are fighting a very good election. It is just the beginning. We should perform very well in the Lok Sabha polls in Telangana. We could win our highest seats so far from there,” Shah said.
The ultimate result
While expressing confidence in retaining strongholds and making inroads into new territories, Shah’s projections underscore the BJP’s ambitious goals and determination to secure a decisive victory in the upcoming elections. As the political landscape evolves and campaigning intensifies, only time will reveal the accuracy of these projections. Until then, the nation remains captivated by the anticipation and dynamics of the ongoing electoral battle.