Kentucky Derby could be a two-horse race. What to know as 2024 field takes shape

With the Kentucky Derby prep races complete and the draw set to tantalize fans until the final Saturday in April, it’s time to analyze the field for the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby.

History shows there likely will be a couple of defections over the next couple of weeks — more on that later — but we know the top story lines for the May 4 Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs.

Fierceness and Sierra Leone will battle for favoritism. Japan may have its best contender yet. D. Wayne Lukas, at 88 years old, is back.

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Several contenders already have arrived at Churchill Downs to prepare for the Kentucky Derby, and others will make their way over the next two weeks. The field is limited to 20 in the starting gate, but up to four more can enter on the also-eligible list and hope for a scratch.

Nothing about the field is official until the post-position draw on the evening of April 27 — coinciding with Opening Night of the Churchill Downs Spring Meet — but here’s what we know right now about the top 20 horses on the Kentucky Derby points list.

It could be a two-horse race

Fierceness’ good race-bad race trend hit another high March 30 when he romped in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, winning by a shocking 13 ½ lengths and likely establishing himself as the Kentucky Derby favorite.

“That was a ‘wow’ moment there,” winning trainer Todd Pletcher said after the race.

Fierceness has enjoyed a few “wow moments” during his career, winning his debut last August at Saratoga by 11 ¼ lengths and capturing the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by 6 ¼ lengths to wrap up the title of 2-year-old champion.

But sandwiched in between those three victories were two question marks: a seventh-place finish in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes last October and a third-place showing in his 3-year-old debut, the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 3.

If you believe Fierceness is set to bounce off his Florida Derby romp, Sierra Leone might be of interest.

The $2.3 million son of Gun Runner is 3 for 4 in his career and lost by a nose — to fellow Kentucky Derby contender Dornoch — in his lone defeat.

He showed his moxie in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes on April 6 at Keeneland, rallying from last place to win by 1 ½ lengths over Just a Touch and at least give Fierceness some competition for the “Kentucky Derby favorite” tag.

Trainer Chad Brown never has won the Derby but has been close twice, finishing second with Good Magic in 2018 and third with Zandon in 2022.

“This horse,” Brown said of Sierra Leone, “he’s probably just ahead of them the way he’s marching into the Derby.”

Japan’s Forever Young a contender

Forever Young and jockey Ryusei Sakai race past Auto Bahn to win Saturday’s UAE Derby at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

Japan continues to make inroads in North American racing and may have its best contender for the Kentucky Derby.

Forever Young is unbeaten in five career starts and earned a Kentucky Derby bid by winning the Group 2 UAE Derby on March 30 at Meydan. Several oddsmakers have him as the No. 3 choice in the Kentucky Derby behind Fierceness and Sierra Leone.

Forever Young and T O Password — who earned an invite through the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby — would be the fifth and sixth Japan-breds to compete in the Run for the Roses in recent years, starting with Master Fencer (sixth) in 2019. Two competed in last year’s race, with Derma Sotogake finishing sixth and Mandarin Hero 12^th.

Forever Young will race against the “UAE Derby jinx,” as horses coming from the race are 0 for 19 all time in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish came from Master of Hounds, who was fifth in 2011.

D. Wayne Lukas set to return

Trainer D. Wayne Lukas, 88, is expected to saddle Just Steel in the 150th Kentucky Derby.

D. Wayne Lukas was King of the Derby in the final years of the 20^th century, winning the race four times from 1988-99 and in 1996 becoming the first trainer to enter five horses in one running.

Lukas had the runner-up with Proud Citizen in 2002 but hasn’t saddled a horse for the Derby since 2018, when Bravazo finished sixth.

The drought is set to end this year, as Lukas has Just Steel in the field. The son of Justify enters off a runner-up finish in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.

Just Steel has plenty of experience, having raced 11 times with a 2-4-1 record. His last victory came in the Ed Brown Stakes on Nov. 25 at Churchill.

Two of the top 20 could back out

Endlessly and jockey Umberto Rispoli win the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks on March 23 at Turfway Park.

Of the top 20 horses currently on the points leaderboard, at least two are considered questionable to run in the Kentucky Derby.

Jeff Ruby Steaks winner Endlessly has never raced on dirt, his first four starts coming on turf and his last two on all-weather surfaces.

Trainer Michael McCarthy expressed a preference to enter Endlessly in the Grade 2 American Turf on the Kentucky Derby undercard, but the horse’s owners may opt for the Kentucky Derby.

“If I thought he was a dirt horse, I may have tried him on it a while ago,” McCarthy said before the Jeff Ruby. “He’s just been very consistent on the grass. He moves like a grass horse. The style in which he’s most comfortable running — tucking in behind the speed — is conducive to the grass.”

Deterministic earned a Kentucky Derby spot by winning the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes on March 2 but followed with a disappointing eighth-place finish in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial Stakes on April 6, putting his Derby status in doubt.

Trainer Christophe Clement has nearly 2,500 career victories but never has entered a horse in the Kentucky Derby.

Grand Mo the First and Common Defense are the first two horses on the Kentucky Derby bubble. Grand Mo the First was third in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, and Common Defense finished fifth in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby.

Justify, Good Magic top sires

Justify and Good Magic, who battled in the 2018 Kentucky Derby and Preakness, are the only sires with multiple progeny in this year’s Derby field.

Justify, winner of the 2018 Triple Crown, is the sire of Blue Grass runner-up Just a Touch and Just Steel.

Good Magic, runner-up to Justify in the 2018 Kentucky Derby and fourth in the 2018 Preakness, is the sire of Blue Grass fourth-place finisher Dornoch and Wood Memorial runner-up Society Man.

Good Magic sired Mage, last year’s Kentucky Derby winner. Dornoch is a full-brother to Mage.

More horse racing: How many horses have won Triple Crown? Meet winners of the Derby, Preakness and Belmont

Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; [email protected]. Follow on X @KentuckyDerbyCJ.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky Derby could be a two-horse race. What to know as 2024 field takes shape