Why Trump’s courtroom stalling may not be enough for election win

A Supreme Court decision to hear Donald Trump’s immunity from prosecution claims gives the former president a stay of execution that could lead to his federal election interference trial being delayed until after the election.

For the former US president, the delay could be seen as a victory, stalling a public trial on the most serious criminal charges he faces, potentially until after November and avoiding any risk of him going into an election with a potential conviction.

But some political experts have argued this may not be enough to ensure the vote goes his way.

Professor Todd Landman, Professor of Political Science at Nottingham University, told i: “There are some people who will think this is only an allegation, he hasn’t been found guilty in court, we will support this person rather than not.

“He is kind of counting on that.

“People haven’t cared about his behaviour for a very long time. There’s a very large group of people who say, it doesn’t bother us.”

But Professor Landman believes “it’s going to be pretty close to the wire in November” and for many Republican voters it will be “an impossible choice”.

“This does tarnish his reputation … but there will be people who may not be able to bring themselves to vote for Biden,” he said.

What has the Supreme Court agreed?

The highest court in the United States agreed on Wednesday that it would hear arguments from Mr Trump’s lawyers as to what extent he is immune to criminal liability.

It means the criminal case against the presidential candidate, in relation to allegedly conspiring to overturn the results of his election loss to President Joe Biden in the run-up to the 6 January, 2021 riot at the US Capitol, has been put on hold.

The Court of Appeal has already rejected Trump’s claim of immunity from prosecution because he was president when he took actions aimed at reversing President Joe Biden’s election victory over him.

The Supreme Court will decide if and to what extent Donald Trump is immune to criminal liabilty (Photo: Shannon Stapleton/Reuters)

The three-judge panel ruled: “We cannot accept that the office of the presidency places its former occupants above the law for all time thereafter.”

But nine Supreme Court justices will now review it.

The hearing is due to begin the week of the 22 April and will focus on one question: “Whether and if so to what extent does a former president enjoy presidential immunity from criminal prosecution for conduct alleged to involve official acts during his tenure in office.”

The former US president appeared at a New York court on charges of falsifying business records to cover up a hush money payment to a porn star before the 2016 election (Photo: Brendan McDermid/Pool/Reuters)

What does this mean for his criminal case?

The criminal case relating to federal election interference had been scheduled to begin to begin in Washington’s federal court on Monday 4 March.

Mr Trump faces four charges: obstruction of an official proceeding, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, conspiracy to defraud the US and conspiracy to prevent others from carrying out their constitutional rights.

“Official proceeding” refers to the joint session of Congress at which electoral votes were counted to certify Biden as the official winner.

If convicted, the businessman turned politician could face up to 20 years behind bars.

But US District Judge Tanya Chutkan formally postponed the trial this month, so Mr Trump could pursue his claim of presidential immunity in higher courts, and no new date has been set.

Any new trial date will have to be after the Supreme Court justices have made a decision, which could come around in May or June.

However, pre-trial hearings and jury selection could take the trial start date to late summer and this would prove problematic, as US Justice Department guidelines limit prosecutorial action in politically sensitive investigations from within 60 days of an election.

So the possibility remains that the trial is delayed until after the election – and if elected, Mr Trump is expected to try to prevent it ever going ahead.

Could this affect his chances of winning the election?

Professor Landman said he sees the Supreme Case hearing as a “double-edged sword”.

“It would be a chance for the court to settle this question,” he said. “It allows the court to have a view on this not just for Trump, we are talking about future presidents as well.”

But this will cause a “significant delay” to the criminal trial process.

“We know that Trump’s key strategy is to delay as much as possible,” he said. “Any delay will help Trump, it allows him to continue to campaign.

“He is free to rant against the system.”

However, the delay may not be enough to push him over the line if he does become the Republican nominee for president.

“If you look the primaries, he is not cutting through as significantly as you would think, 30 to 40 per cent are not voting for him,” said Professor Landman. “And that 40 per cent could mean you are not going to win.

“They might vote for Biden or abstain.

“It’s a really interesting set of sequences, timing and scrutiny.”

The professor believes Mr Trump is still “likely to become the Republican nominee” but he added “it’s not clear he will garner enough votes for the general.”

What other legal cases is Donald Trump facing?

Even if Mr Trump manages to avoid a trial in the federal election interference criminal case until after the election, he is still facing three other criminal investigations.

The former president has pleaded not guilty in all of them, claiming they are all politically motivated.

He was indicted in New York City on 30 March last year on charges involving a scheme to bury allegations of extramarital affairs with a porn star, which arose during his first White House campaign in 2016.

That case centres on allegations Mr Trump falsified internal records kept by his company to hide the true nature of payments made to his then-personal lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen, who helped cover up the businessman’s extramarital affairs.

He is charged in New York with 34 counts of falsifying business records, a crime punishable by up to four years in prison. A trial date is set for 25 March.

The former president and 18 others were also charged in August last year by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis with participating in a scheme to illegally try to overturn his narrow loss to Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election in Georgia.

All 19 defendants are charged under Georgia’s Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (Rico).

Mr Trump also is charged with 12 other criminal counts, including solicitation of violation of oath by a public officer, filing false documents, false statements and writings, and assorted conspiracy charges.

Not date has been set for trial.

He has also been charged by special counsel Jack Smith with illegally retaining classified documents taken from the White House to his Florida home Mar-a-Lago, after he left office in January 2021.

He faces 40 counts related to both the possession of the documents, including crimes under the Espionage Act, and alleged obstruction when asked to return them.

The charges include wilful retention of national defence information, conspiracy to obstruct justice, false statements and representations.

He is due to stand trial in this case on 20 May in Fort Pierce, Florida.