Crushed by the present, the ANC will rely on the past to help it win the future

With the ANC seemingly under more electoral pressure than ever before, it would only be rational to expect fresh new messaging ahead of the all-important elections, now just a few months away. But the party’s January 8th Statement this weekend, and the speech by President Cyril Ramaphosa, offered no evidence of a party that is able to conjure a fresh start, and instead will rely on its track record over the last 30 years. This may turn out to be a mistake. A big, fat, mistake.

crushed by the present, the anc will rely on the past to help it win the future

Crushed by the present, the ANC will rely on the past to help it win the future

While the main January 8th speech was delivered by President Cyril Ramaphosa as leader of the ANC, the official text of the statement was published by the party’s national executive committee (NEC). The President’s speech is essentially a summary of that statement.

Considering the importance of the event, the fact that in previous times it could dominate the political agenda, and that the ANC was given acres of TV and radio airtime, this time it has probably underused the opportunity.

There appears to be almost nothing new in the 2024 statement, despite the fact it is obvious to almost everyone that the ANC needs to change something. And that the party still very much wants to win again.

Almost immediately, right at the start of the document, is the first indication that the ANC is going to rely on its track record over the last 30 years, rather than its capacity to change the lives of people in the future.

Its first heading is around “Celebrating 30 Years of Freedom”, and it starts with the adoption of “a transformative Constitution”.

This is probably the biggest indication yet that the ANC’s election strategy is likely to be based on its track record over the longer term than in the recent past. It may also show the ANC is refusing to make promises that it can improve the lives of people over the shorter term. Or that it believes that as opposition parties are going to criticise its track record it has a duty to defend it.

There is much of this reminder of the long-term record, how the ANC has provided access to water and electricity to many people who did not have them before.

crushed by the present, the anc will rely on the past to help it win the future

ANC pamphlets

ANC pamphlets during the Voter Registration at Ridgecrest Family Church on 18 November 2023 in Johannesburg, South Africa. (Photo: Gallo Images/Luba Lesolle)

Wooing the youth

Crucially, it also says that “Over the last 30 years, South Africa’s young people have benefitted from our transformative programmes, a vital part of our work to build a nation of skilled, informed and resilient young people”. It goes on to say that young people have had a big impact on our society on issues such as governance, LGBT issues and have “repeatedly pushed us to rethink our politics and ways of doing things”.

This appears to be an important recognition of the importance of the votes of younger people in this election.

While there is undoubtedly a large group of younger people who have benefitted from the ANC’s policies, there are many millions who appear to be almost giving up hope. Most of them believe they have virtually no chance of ever gaining a formal job, and a sustainable income.

In a way, for the ANC to win younger voters may be almost impossible. This is a group of people who have no memory of Apartheid as an oppressive system, even though they are living in an economic system still defined by Apartheid.

Also, there is stiff competition for the younger vote from the EFF. Its message of revolutionary change may resonate more strongly with these voters than the message of the ANC.

The ANC is also clearly aware that load shedding could be one of the most important issues ahead of the polls (although there are some indications the set of crises in our water system could soon overshadow it). That said, it makes no new promises, instead saying that “the overall trend is towards less severe load shedding and better management and communication of outages”.

For a governing party to almost celebrate the “better management” of outages may tell voters all they need to know. The ANC is responsible for load shedding, the failure of government to resolve it, and the fact that the just transition is now unmanageable.

The ANC also says that its branches must “campaign to ensure communities pay for services used and support programmes to introduce pay-as-you-go me­ters and disconnect illegal electricity and water connections”.

This is a much softer message from what has been said in the past.

In 2022, while announcing our short-lived National State of Disaster over electricity Ramaphosa said, “We must pay for services and prevent illegal connections”.

crushed by the present, the anc will rely on the past to help it win the future

David Mabuza, ANC

Ex Deputy President David Mabuza (right) at the Sefako Makgatho Presidential Guest House in Pretoria. (Photo: Felix Dlangamandla)

In 2019, the person then in charge of the Electricity War Room, then Deputy President David Mabuza said, “It’s a good culture that we must teach ourselves: pay for services that you have consumed”.

Perhaps, just perhaps, in an election year, paying for services is not as important as it is in normal times?

It is also now clear that the party sees the introduction of the National Health Insurance system as a vote-winner.

Ramaphosa made it clear in his speech, as does the NEC in its written statement, that the NHI will happen.

Considering that those who oppose it are people who benefit from private healthcare, while those who support it rely on government healthcare, there are obviously votes here.

However, even if the party does implement it formally this year, almost nothing will change for many years, because of the complexity of the system, and the sheer amount of change that still needs to happen (never mind the series of legal challenges that are likely to come).

Coalitions crunch

One of the more intriguing comments from the ANC over the weekend was the way it views coalitions. Obviously, as the party currently in power, it has the most to fear from coalition governments.

The ANC says that the “frustrating experience of dysfunctional coalition governments has shown that they don’t work for the people but for the political deal-makers intent on advancing their own personal interests.” It also says that service delivery suffers during these times, while “Replicating this bitter experience of chaos, instability and dysfunctionality at national and provincial levels will be a disaster that our country cannot afford”.

Many may agree with all of this. But completely absent is any recognition of the ANC’s role in creating these situations.

It is the ANC that has voted, with the EFF, to elect people like Al Jama-ah’s Kabelo Gwamanda into power in Joburg or the Northern Alliance’s Gary van Niekerk as Mayor in Nelson Mandela Bay. Without the ANC’s votes in these cases, these incompetent people would not be in office.

crushed by the present, the anc will rely on the past to help it win the future

Kabelo Gwamanda

Kabelo Gwamanda during a community engagement at the Civic Centre on 15 November 2023 in Lenasia, South Africa. (Photo: Gallo Images/Papi Morake)

Surely the party has to also take responsibility for these “dysfunctional coalition governments”? If it does not, that indicates it may still be prepared to take part in these agreements in the future. Or even worse — it is living in a fantasy world.

The ANC NEC also appears to be sharply distant from reality with another simple statement.

The NEC says that, “There will be no compromise on the fundamental matters of organisa­tional discipline and integrity”.

And yet the party is still unable to deal with their own people who were clearly implicated in State Capture wrong-doing by the Zondo Commission.

Despite the NEC’s instruction that people who are implicated must themselves report to the Integrity Committee, a high number of them have refused to do so (in June last year the current head of the Integrity Committee, Frank Chikane said that number was as high as 97).

crushed by the present, the anc will rely on the past to help it win the future

Mavuso Msimang

ANC veteran Mavuso Msimang. (Photo: Gallo Images/Rapport/Deon Raath)

Despite a promise to ANC veteran Mavuso Msimang last year that action will be taken on this matter, there is no indication of any change at all. It seems almost inevitable now that some people implicated in State Capture will now be allowed to represent the ANC in Parliament and provincial legislatures after the elections (unless the Elections Commission chaired by former President Kgalema Motlanthe acts to prevent that from happening).

The ANC still has to release its election manifesto, and it is in that document that final promises to voters will be made. But, based on the evidence so far, it appears the party may be unable to craft new policies and programmes to win votes.

This may be an admission the party understands it cannot convince voters it can improve their lives in the next five years. And this may be a mistake. Many voters will want to see their lives improve. They want their future to be better than their past. And so far, the ANC appears to be unable to convince voters it is capable of achieving that. DM

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