Michigan vs Washington: 7 bold predictions for CFP National Championship Game

Michigan vs Washington: 7 bold predictions for CFP National Championship Game

Only two teams can claim college football’s national championship coming into Monday, Jan. 8. After the College Football Playoff semifinals, it’ll be the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines taking on the No. 2 Washington Huskies inside NRG Stadium in Houston for the CFP National Championship Game. And there’s not a loss between these two teams.

Michigan, embroiled in controversy all season, but most notably since the revelation of the alleged sign-stealing scandal, made light work of the Big Ten this season, then fought tooth-and-nail through a myriad of mistakes in the Rose Bowl to beat Alabama and make the CFP National Championship Game. Washington, meanwhile, became escape artists with one close win after another. But beating Oregon for a second time this year to win the Pac-12 before avoiding a collapse to top Texas in the Sugar Bowl.

But now it all comes down to the field in Houston. It’s a matchup of programs that haven’t won a national championship in 25+ years. It’s a matchup of Jim Harbaugh and Kalen DeBoer, two coaches without a ring. It’s a matchup of undefeated teams looking for that special 15th victory.

So what happens on Monday night? We have a handful of bold predictions that we see coming for Michigan and Washington in the CFP National Championship Game.

7. Washington TE Jack Westover is Top 2 in receiving for Huskies

It could be said that Texas was the biggest test Washington’s Joe Moore Award winning offensive line had seen to this point in the year. But Michigan now presents an even bigger test for the Huskies in the trenches.

For DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, they obviously will rely on Michael Penix Jr.’s superhuman ability to avoid pressure in the pocket to alleviate some of that. But schematically, they’ll also look to potentially find some safety routes in the short and intermediate parts of the field. As such, we should see another big-time game from the Huskies top tight end, Jack Westover.

Westover was fifth on the team in receiving this season but tied for his second-highest yardage total (59) and had his second-best receptions number (6) in the win over Texas. I expect him to find the soft spots in Michigan’s defense and give Penix a safety outlet, which the Heisman runner-up will have to utilize often, which will put Westover at least Top 2 in receiving yards, likely behind Rome Odunze.

6. Bralen Trice fails to sack Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy

One of the biggest surprises from the Sugar Bowl was Washington’s ability to attack the Texas offensive line, particularly off of the edge. Bralen Trice felt like he lived in the backfield as he ended the day with two sacks and three tackles for loss. And mind you, this was against a Texas offensive line that, though perhaps less consistent, I would venture to say is more talented and daunting of a task than Michigan’s.

And yet, the Huskies star pass rusher won’t have the same level of success in the CFP National Championship Game than he did in his team’s semifinal victory. Michigan will have plenty of attention being paid to Trice by design of Harbaugh and Sherrone Moore. But perhaps more importantly, I suspect that the Wolverines gameplan on Monday night won’t give Trice all too many opportunities to get into the backfield on passing downs and make a play.

Which leads us to our next bold prediction…

5. J.J. McCarthy throws fewer than 15 pass attempts for Michigan

One of the big criticisms of Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy leading into the College Football Playoff was his lack of passing in big games. Some wondered if the Wolverines coaching staff trusted him or if he had that type of play in him. But the far more likely option is that they simply haven’t needed him in big games.

When you look back to Michigan’s wins over both Penn State and Ohio State, McCarthy threw just eight passes against the Nittany Lions and only 20 against the Buckeyes. It was a game plan based entirely around the run game and the Michigan defense.

Though Washington will surely look to force the Wolverines away from that script, the fact of the matter is that they are good enough to play that style and potentially even keep pace with the Huskies explosive offense should they get loose. McCarthy can make the throws he needs to, but I don’t see him needing to ultimately pass all that much on Monday night.

4. Michigan DT Kris Jenkins matches season sack total in the natty

Just as Washington’s defensive line showed up well in the Sugar Bowl, their offensive line did a solid job against an uber-talented Texas defensive front. Or, at least that’s what the Huskies did at some spots.

At both tackle spots and at center, Washington was more than formidable when it came to blocking Texas. But both guards struggled, particularly left guard Nate Kalepo, who was the worst-graded lineman for the Huskies in the game who played more than five snaps, per PFF.

Matching up against Michigan and specifically Kris Jenkins, that’s a spot that defensive coordinator Jesse Minter is going to attack. And with the schemed pressures and a winning one-on-one matchup, Jenkins will surpass the 2.5 sacks he had on the year in this one game, getting to Penix 3+ times.

3. Michael Penix Jr. throws for 400 yards (again) for Washington

And yet, it won’t completely slow down Michael Penix Jr. More on this in a minute, but I don’t foresee the Washington defense having a ton of answers for what will likely be the Wolverines game plan on offense in this contest. That will mean that the Huskies will also have to rely on their bread and butter offensively, which is letting the Heisman finalist air it out.

Not only will Penix’s pocket awareness save him from several takedowns as well in this game, but Michigan is going to have some growing pains against by far the best pass-catching group they’ve faced this season, and without question the deepest. Beyond that, though running back Dillon Johnson plans to suit up, there is no way he’s 100% after leaving the game late in the Sugar Bowl with a foot injury that has lingered.

Washington’s offense will run through it’s all-world quarterback, and he’ll deliver with one of the best performances we’ve seen this season (if not the best) against this vaunted Michigan defense.

2. Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards both hit 100 yards rushing

One thing that many critics of Michigan have noted this season is that it seems as if both Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards have not been as good of running backs as they were a year ago, at least by the numbers. Yes, Corum has roughly a billion touchdowns onthe season, but he’s averaged only 4.7 yards per carry while Edwards has been even worse at 3.5.

And yet, I’m not sure it will matter. Washington’s run defense has been highly problematic all season, including ranking an appalling 125th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate on the year, meaning essentially that they are one of the worst teams in the country at keeping opponents from having a rush that sets the offense up for a first down and to score.

Michigan is one of the most disciplined offenses in the country. They are more than content to run the ball, run the ball, and run it again. I think they will and, to keep both of their backs fresh, that means both Corum and Edwards tear through the Huskies.

1. Michigan wins the national championship, but Washington covers

Initially, I was wholly inclined to pick Washington to continue the magic by winning a national championship. But the more I consider this matchup against this iteration of Michigan, the more I can’t pick against the Wolverines.

So my bold prediction is that Jim Harbaugh wins his first national championship and Michigan’s first since 1997 behind the defensive front making enough plays and relying almost entirely on a dominant rushing attack. However, we’re not letting Washington go without credit. I do think Penix and the Huskies receivers are the toughest matchup the Wolverines have seen to this point, and that will lead to some Washington scores.

I love the over in this game because I think both teams can score pretty regularly, but Michigan wins in the end… just not by 4.5 points.