MI 0%, GT 8%....KKR & RR 63%: All IPL playoff chances in 10 points
MI 0%, GT 8%….KKR & RR 63%: All IPL playoff chances in 10 points
With 13 games left to be played in the league stage of IPL 2024, there remain nearly 8,200 possible combinations of match results. No one is yet certain of making the playoffs, but one team (MI) is totally ruled out. We look at the chances of each team:
IPL ORANGE CAP | IPL PURPLE CAP | IPL POINTS TABLEKKR – The team currently topping the table have a 36% chance of finishing the sole toppers and they could do that even with just one win from their remaining three games. Their chances of finishing joint toppers on points are an impressive 62.5%. Yet, they are still not sure of making the playoffs. If they lose all their remaining games, they could end up tied fourth with DC or LSG depending on results in other games. But there’s just a 0.2% chance of such a scenario
Use TOI’s interactive utility to see possible playoff scenariosRR – Like KKR, they have a 36% chance of being sole toppers at the end of the league phase and a 62.5% chance of being at least tied for the first spot on points. Yet, they too are still not sure of making the playoffs. If they lose all their remaining games, they could end up tied fourth with DC or LSG depending on results in other games. But there’s just a 0.4% chance of such a scenario
SRH – Wednesday’s thumping win over LSG moved SRH up to third on the table and improved their chances of making it to the top four singly or jointly from 72% to nearly 94%. The best they can hope for is a joint first spot with one to three other teams and the chances of that are a little under 5%
CSK – Currently in third place, CSK have a little over 73% chance of finishing within the top four slots either singly or jointly. Like SRH, the best they can do is tied for top spot with one to three other teams. And the chances of that are a mere 4%.
DC – Lying in fifth place at the moment, DC have no chance of finishing the toppers or even joint toppers. Their chances of ending up among the top four singly or jointly are just under 50%. Their best case scenario is joint second on points and there’s a little under 4% chance of that happening
LSG – Despite Wednesday’s rout, LSG remain in sixth place. But their chances of making the top four singly or jointly dropped from 70% to just under 50%. Like DC, the best they can do is tie for the second spot with one to three other teams. The chances of that happening are just under 4%
RCB – Seventh-placed RCB can hope for not better than tied third or fourth and the chances of even that are just over 8%
PBKS- Punjab too can at best hope for tied third or fourth and the chances of that are just over 6%
GT – The title holders find themselves at the bottom of the table and their chances of progressing are slim at a little under 8%
MI – Currently ninth, but MI are now definitely out of the playoffs. None of the 8,192 possible combinations of match results can end up with them finishing better than 5th on points.
In short: Bet on KKR and RR making the playoffs to be joined by two out of CSK, SRH, LSG and DC, with the first two having a distinctly better chance. For any of the others to get into the mix would need a miracle.
How we calculate the chances
With 13 games remaining, there remain 8,192 possible combinations of match outcomes. We look at each one of those and what it would mean in terms of the final rankings of the teams. Then we work out the percentage of outcomes that would give team “A” a chance of finishing in the top four, or the first spot and so on. The underlying assumption is that any given match is a 50-50 game, not unreasonable given how the IPL has unfolded this year and in other years. For instance, of the 8,192 combinations, RR finish leaders singly or jointly in 5,120 combinations, which means a 62.5% chance of making the top spot singly or jointly.
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