Opinion: There is no ‘Silver bullet’ to help Biden beat Trump in November

Opinion: There is no ‘Silver bullet’ to help Biden beat Trump in November

Shockwaves and anger are still reverberating in Democratic circles since one of their (former) favorites, polling analyst Nate Silver, had the temerity to call out President Biden’s poor polling and the fact that Biden and his White House staff have no apparent plan to pull the president out of his nosedive. Silver’s logic and the hard data show clearly that Biden is in trouble.

Silver is a bit like a WebMD for politics: pretty good at the diagnosis, but not so good at prescribing a cure. While he definitely teased out many of the significant polling problems facing Biden, correctly concluded that these problems are durable and deduced that the White House is lacking in any solutions, his solution — a series of interviews with media not fully captured by the left — won’t work.

There are two problems for Silver: 1) Biden might not be able to handle it; and 2) even if he is fully coherent, he will likely inflame the Democratic voter base over issues like Israel and immigration.

Can Biden perform without a net?

Silver recommends Biden assuage the public by conducting four interviews with “non-friendly” media outlets. His definition of “non-friendly” is any outlet not in the tank for either Joe Biden or Donald Trump. Though it’s doubtful such an outlet actually exists, his unstated implication is that such interviews would tackle at least a few challenging questions.

This also assumes Biden can handle the assignment. But as Silver himself notes, the White House has dealt with the latest controversies with excuses, stonewalling and criticizing anyone who questions his mental acuity. It is a logical assumption that if Biden, a man who has spent over 50 years in elective politics, could capably deal with a set of interviews, he would just do it.

And then there is Biden’s history, both longstanding and recent, of gaffes and unfortunate extemporaneous remarks that he has had to walk back. Of late he swapped the presidents of Mexico and Egypt and claimed he had just met with the long-dead French President Francois Mitterrand.

So, what are the odds Biden can go four for four on mistake-free interviews? I would put the chances against it. Given how much this issue has blown up and the recent special prosecutor’s report, any bad interview would set off a feeding frenzy in Washington and the meal would be the Biden presidency. Even if the White House is confident in Biden’s acuity, the risks are too much — and if Biden is in decline, anything not scripted is an absolute non-starter.

Drifting administration, angry base

But Silver’s prescription really founders when you dig into issue polling and the current political contest. This is an administration that cannot even coordinate its top domestic policy priorities. Whether on the Israel-Hamas conflict, Ukraine or the migrant crisis, Team Biden’s policy looks to be “hold on and hope for the best.”

Even a pliant interviewer would have to ask Biden where he stands and what to do about the Israel-Hamas conflict. Biden has an impossible choice. Elements of the progressive base are furious with the administration’s Israel tilt, and Democrats in general are out of touch with the majority of Americans.

According to the recent YouGov benchmark, a plurality of Americans sympathize with Israel, at 36 percent, while 27 percent sympathize equally with Israel and the Palestinians and 15 percent support the Palestinians. But pluralities of Democrats (28 percent) and self-identified liberals (31 percent) sympathize with the Palestinians. Israel has an 11-point advantage with independents and gains the sympathy of a whopping 62 percent of Republicans.

Worse, Biden’s policy is on the rocks with his vote base, with 41 percent of liberals thinking Biden supports Israel too much against 33 percent the “right amount” and a mere 3 percent “too little.” Independents are at 23 percent “too much” with 43 percent the “right amount” or “too little.” Republicans are much more supportive of Israel (19 percent “too much,” 58 percent the “right amount” or “too little”).

Biden would likely face questions in other unpleasant areas for which he has few answers. Illegal immigration is another policy-absent area of concern where the president’s approval is underwater with independents, at 23 percent approve vs. 60 percent disapprove — a bigger deficit that his overall approval numbers (32 percent approve vs. 59 percent disapprove). Even Democrats are a problem, with an approval 19 points below Biden’s overall rating. And immigration is no longer just a Republican bugaboo; independent voters rank it as their No.3 issue.

Inflation remains the top issue for independents and Republicans, with Biden scoring worse approvals than he does with his overall ratings. He is underwater with independents, at 27 percent approve vs. 59 percent disapprove, and with Republicans, at 12 percent approve vs. 87 percent disapprove.

These toxic numbers combine to put Biden down against Trump, with independents at 40 percent for Trump and 31 percent for Biden. What buoys Biden in the YouGov ballot test is the assumption that Democratic turnout will remain high. But that might not be assured if Biden further angers the activist left.

Adrift and confused and losing

The bottom line is that a passel of interviews, even sympathetic interviews, will not and cannot solve Biden’s competency problem as long as there are no satisfactory answers in those interviews. A sure-footed Biden who exacerbates splits in his own party or alienates independent voters he needs fixes nothing.

Step 1 for the Biden administration is to end the policy drift and figure out where they are headed. The Biden White House really has no choice: they are going to have to take a chance that fear of Trump outweighs progressive anger. In the midst of international chaos and a barely controlled border, resoluteness is vital. But the administration has only shown resoluteness in blaming Republicans for all their ills.

That’s no Silver bullet, no matter how you cut it.

Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to The Hill.