Nasrallah links Gaza to northern Israel in new Hezbollah 'equation'

Men carry a portrait of Lebanon

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah gave a speech on February 13 in which he discussed the continued Hezbollah aggression against Israel. He discussed various western proposals, such as the French, for ending the Hezbollah attacks on Israel. He also discussed how Hezbollah using “proportion” to attack Israel and that it will not stop its attacks until the Gaza war ends.

Nasrallah’s statement is important because it reveals some of what Hezbollah and Iran are thinking today in the region. Hamas attacked Israel on October 7 and carried out an unprecedented massacre. This was the cue for Iran to begin an unprecedented escalation and series of attacks in the region. Iran’s proxies in Iraq and Syria carried out 200 attacks on US forces. The Houthis in Yemen are operationalized to attack shipping.

They also targeted Eilat. Hezbollah began its attacks on October 8 and has fired thousands of rockets at Israel. On February 13 and mother and son were badly wounded in Kiryat Shmona due to Hezbollah’s rocket fire.

Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah know that there are no international repercussions to their attacks on civilians. No UN condemnation will take place and despite Hezbollah openly violating a UN resolution and other laws, there are no real repercussions to Hezbollah’s actions. The Houthis have suffered more pushback because some countries in the international community still value freedom of navigation.

More resistance than ever before

Nasrallah and Hezbollah believe that their “resistance” is more “determined” than in the past. This means they are willing to fire rockets whenever they want and target communities along the border and they believe they enjoy impunity. They also openly call what they see as Israel’s bluffs, such as statements about how Israel will remove Hezbollah from the border or that Israel’s air force is pointing north.

Hezbollah sees the last four months as a victory unto itself. It has changed the equation. In the old day this level of rocket fire, 2,000 in the first three months, would lead to a major war. Today it has become the new normal. The killing and wounding of civilians is now seen as just another day. There is no evidence yet that the harm to civilians in Kiryat Shmona will lead to major escalation. Hezbollah is continuing to push red lines and it believes it can drive through them at will.

Hezbollah believes the “equation” has now changed in its favor. It now links Gaza to the northern front. If there is conflict in Gaza Hezbollah now will always claim it has a “right” to attack. This is a shift from the era of 2006-2021 when Israel could isolate Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza. In 2021 Hezbollah indicated that it would heat up the north and Iran also sought to have Iraqi militias target Israel in 2021.

In 2023 Hezbollah also enabled Hamas and other terror groups to expand their footprint in Lebanon. Two dozen rockets were fired at Israel on Passover, 2023, a signal that Hezbollah believed it could enable attacks on Israel. Hezbollah also pressured Israel into a maritime deal in 2022, claiming that if Israel didn’t agree to a deal with Lebanon then there would be war. In each instance, Hezbollah has sought to test Israel and it has continued to increase its threats.

Hezbollah now says that “hundreds of thousands of settlers” in northern Israel will not be able to return to their homes unless the war in Gaza ends. This is a new line for Hezbollah. Israel evacuated 80,000 people from border communities in October after the Hezbollah attacks began. Now Hezbollah believes it can dictate where Israelis live in northern Israel.

The fact that it has seen the evacuations and now counts the number of people evacuated, and believes it can keep them away from the border, is a new unprecedented Hezbollah message. Never before in history did Israel evacuate the whole border and never before did Hezbollah think it succeeded in removing Israelis from the north.

“We are following all developments in the region, and all possibilities are open,” adding, “We are fighting in the south, with our eyes on Gaza,” Nasrallah said. He asserted that Hezbollah would stop shooting when the Gaza war ends. This is interesting as it shows that Hezbollah now views Hamas as the main actor, and that it is attacking to keep Hamas in power. This shows Hezbollah is not ready to take a major initiative on its own.

Hezbollah therefore has spelled out its new strategy. It now links its role to Hamas in Gaza. It also believes that the “equation” on the border has changed and it can attack with impunity. It now also measures its success by how many Israelis are evacuated.