Market Tomorrow: Nifty Fall Continue; Heavyweights Drag Nifty Near 22,300 | Your Trades

Hello and welcome. You’re watching your trades on ET Now with me, Sneesha and with me as always is Priyanka, Upal and Priyanka, not a very good day coming in for our market at least. And you know now it’s been a trend that we are penciling in something else in the morning at the start of the day with the gift Nifty indicating a very good start every day. And then towards the end of the trading session, the entire picture is reversed and we’ve ended up in the red quite a few times over the last couple of last week as well. And you today, Nifty has ended the day with a downtick of more than half a percent, 610th of a percent cut coming in on Nifty. 140 points lower is where we’ve ended at 22,302. That’s for the Nifty Nifty Bank. Also very sharp cuts coming in 1.2% downtick for Nifty bank. 609 points. Almost lower is where we’ve ended Sensex 2 and Tandem, with both of these. Half a percent cut coming in for the Sensex as well. On the other hand, let’s take a look at what the broader markets have done. And Nifty Midcap is a real loser in trade today because that has sunk even below the benchmarks and almost a 2% drop coming in on Nifty Midcap. That’s the midcap index. Or in fact, Snehi. Did you notice that one point in time there were 90% of the midcap stocks which are trading in red? Well, absolutely not a very good day coming in. And if we think we made caps of volatility, you can say, yeah. And if we think Midcap is the big loser, you will be in store for more disappointment because small small cap has done even worse than midcap and small cap is also down almost 2% in today’s trading session. So well, that’s what largely the market roundup is looking like and most sectors have also ended the day in the red. Nifty Realty being the biggest loser. Almost 3 1/2% down is where we’ve seen that sector coming in. There you have it on your screen. Nifty Metal followed the big losses as well. Two 2 1/2% downtick coming over there as well. Nifty PSU, Bank, Nifty Energy Pharma, Auto media, all of them down anywhere between 1 1/2% and 2%. On the flip side, FMCG was a basket that shown very rightly in trade today supported by HULITC, Marico, all of Britannia, all of these stocks are doing pretty well and nifty. It also has marginally ended the day in the green Priyanka ever since the numbers came in from Dabur. That’s what the trend we saw that this was the only sector which was in green today. Because of course the urban growth for Marico numbers fantastic set of numbers, urban growth moderate whether rural growth was strong and this is what the key what market has been looking for ever since Dabur spoke about that the rural growth so looks like green shoots visible light at the end of the tunnel. That’s what the market is rewarding the entire FMCG pack. Also because of this margins were also very nice and of course lot of broking firms coming in with reports for FMCG especially for on Marico Investech hike the target price also. Other than that of course there are a lot of concerns made. Clearly the way Wix has been spiking it is third continuous days that we have seen hike in Wix and the reason is that is Wix is now at 1 1/2 year high. Nifty has slipped below 20 DMA, 50 DMA. So a lot of concern and the broad deeper cuts are in broader market but then and we saw the deeper cuts in reality space also Nifty Nifty real estate fell by 4%. The biggest of the cuts biggest of the pressure coming in from sectors like prestige Phoenix meals. So in fact the whole screen look deep red today and in fact this is not just this has been a continuous strength since Friday when we saw that this week started spiking. Is it pre election jitters, 5 selling, lack of fresh triggers, market wants to see election, election outcome. All that combined together now what lies ahead now since we have been now we head for expiry week also in two days. We are briefly at the range of 22300. Kunal joins in to help us understand that what should be the way ahead now? How to navigate the markets from this point in time. Kunal, good afternoon. Any sign of any sign of cool off or any sign of oversold? Getting oversold. What do you make of the markets at this point in time, at least in the times in the terms of index range? And what do you have to say on the VIX, the continuous spike in VIX? Good afternoon. So just one, you know, change from what you mentioned. It is not three consecutive days, but it’s 9 consecutive days for VIX where we’ve seen the VIX jumping up from 9.885 approximately to now almost in the verge of breaking past about the 17 and a half 17.6. That was the high which the Wix had made today. I was actually looking at the data point when was this, you know such kind of a nine day rise on a consecutive basis seen in Wix and you know it actually takes back the first period towards 2020 March. So you know I think that was one of the points where the Wix had risen up sharply but netted I would believe that it’s an adjustment which the markets have been making because of the sharp rise in Wix, try and negate that, it is sharp rise in the wigs. The indexes have to come back into a trading range. In the midpoint, the trading range will be at the lower end of the trading range. So over the last few days we were going into a 200 to 50 odd point range of consolidation for the Nifty because of the jump in Wix, the range expands significantly and now we are looking at almost a 700 to 800 point range for the index where 22,822 thousand could remain as a base or a strong support for the index And on the upside 20 to 800 could remain as a major resistance. OK, Kunal, I just remember I recall that a few days back when you notice that VIX cracked all of a sudden 20%, more than 20% and you came up with a very interesting trend that whenever there is a sharp crackdown then the market also reacts sharply, rebounds sharply. Any such interesting report at this point in time or any sharp observation on on this front. See one of the observations which I have seen over the last decade and a half and more since when I have started to understand and track VIX more on an impactful basis on the indices strains is that whenever the VIX rises up such on a very sharper node, there is an eventual bottom formation process which gets generated for the indices and those bottoms. They generally don’t get tested for months and quarters to come by. So I would probably believe that whenever the VIX starts to cool off idly, it generally should happen once the event is out of the way. And once we, you know see the election data points clear, I think post that we could actually be at a point where over the next two, two to three weeks the markets can actually form a major bottom for itself. And that could be a very big opportunity for medium term, long term traders to try and participate and come back into the indices. Hello there Kunal. Thanks for that view coming in. But like we’ve been seeing some volatility across markets. So I’m in a market like this. How do you navigate this volatility and what are your picks for you picking up? So there are a couple of names which have been starting to look attractive. In fact for the first time I’ve been initiating A Bhandi IT majors. I think these stocks are making a strong comeback. Wipro is something which I would recommend at current levels. The stock for the first time, I think the last 3-4 months, you know is closed about the 20 day moving average. So this could be a strong indication that the stock may see a strong turn of events as well as a price surge in the near term targets of 500, both the way near term stop loss could be kept at 444 and ours. Financial is another interesting name, a bullish engulfing pattern. Today the stock has shown on the catalystic front. So we’ll suggest a buy with the target of 1650 stop loss at 1570. All right. Some action in the affordable housing space of course. These are the two recommendations what Kunal has been recommending. Let you go on this Kunal. Thanks very much for both the stocks. Now Strishi joins in with observation on the charts. Strishi, could you find out breakdown only or do you have a breakout stock also? No, we have both the counters firstly on the breakout side and the second one that we’re gonna be highlighting is one of the breakdown stocks. If we talk about the breakout stock today, then clearly the FMCG pack was ruling the charts. It was maybe it was the star performer in today’s trading session and in that pack have a look at DAWA. This counter was flying high by more than 5 to 6% again in today’s trading session. And what was interesting to say though, on the screen you will see a daily chart because in the daily chart as well it was a falling trend line breakout is what we have witnessed. But on the weekly chart as well if you will see then the stock is making a comeback after forming a triple bottom for itself and that’s even a stronger indication when a stock jumps in such a significant manner. Other than that just a 3-4 day scandal if you see the stock did make a strong bounce from its twenty day moving average to flying high with actually good volumes. So this is the first talk that we wish to highlight on the breakout side. Moving on to the next one, this one is a breakdown stocks but not a typical breakdown that what we what we usually witness but maybe some bit of a correction is what we are witnessing on Voltas and hence we are highlighting this because the stock did retrace from its all time high levels. This is the second week that we are seeing the stock making a retracement from 1500 odd levels and in today’s trading session about four and a half percent the stock did make a bearish engulfing candidate for itself on the weekly basis. So All in all if you will see that the Voltas did gave a fantastic break out is now seen to be retracing and this is what we are highlighting on the breakdown side, not a typical breakdown I would reiterate that. But All in all we did see that it was a rejection from its all time high levels and today was a day when we have seen some of the shots getting added into the system as well. Back to you, well very interesting charge Srishti, thanks so much for taking us through that Voltas on the breakdown and no surprise because Dabur has made it to the break outside part of the FMCG pact. That index was up 2% today amid a very somber market. But let’s move on and talk about the word from the YS today and that is Ashwin Agarwal, the founder of D Meter Advisors. And he believes that rural demand has not re attained the level that it has achieved post COVID. Listening to his views, rural demand has been very weak for almost three years now and rural demand hasn’t really come back to what it used to be after COVID. I think there was a lot of disruption in the rural disposable income on account of the disruption in jobs in the urban area on a post COVID basis. But I think with manufacturing picking up, several of those jobs are coming back and those transfers from urban to rural India might be getting back. The prognosis for the monsoons also is pretty positive this year. And food prices are also relatively strong. So I hope the rural demand picks up. I mean it’s been a big monkey on the back of a lot of consumer companies, including autos and consumer staples companies. So I hope, I hope rural demand comes back. My base case would be that yes it comes back. We also talking about the rural demand which is of course the big trend what market also saw and cheered also we will stay for a short break here, more to come when we come back, don’t go anywhere. We will talk about derivatives also and the other big stories of the day.