Market falls over 3% but BSE smallcap index hits new high, 33 stocks gain 10-44%

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#Market Cues, #Market Edge, #Nifty, Sensex, Union Budget

After a positive start for the week on January 17 the Indian benchmark indices remained under selling pressure for the next four session’s in the week ended January 21 in-line with weak global markets amid concern over tightening monetary policy with rising US treasury yield, crude prices, which led to continued FIIs selling.

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In the last week, BSE Sensex shed 2,185.85 points (3.57 percent) to end at 59,037.18, while the Nifty50 fell 638.55 points (3.49 percent) to close at 17,617.2 levels.

Among sectors, BSE Information Technology index lost 6.5 percent, BSE Telecom index fell 5.8 percent and Nifty Pharma index shed 5.2 percent. However, the BSE Power index added 2.6 percent.

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Among broader indices, the BSE Midcap index declined 4.3 percent, while Smallcap indices lost 3 percent, after hitting fresh high during the week.

Over 30 smallcap stocks gained between 10-44 percent including Precision Wires India, HSIL, Khaitan Chemicals and Fertilisers, Kellton Tech Solutions, OnMobile Global, Vikas Lifecare, Dhanvarsha Finvest, SIS, Pennar Industries, Bharat Road Network and Tinplate Company of India.

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#Market Cues, #Market Edge, #Nifty, Sensex, Union Budget

On the contrary, more than 30 stocks lost between 10-23 percent including Sterlite Technologies, Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra), Urja Global, Hikal, Tejas Networks, Bhansali Engineering Polymers, The Anup Engineering, Dr Lal PathLabs, Jaypee Infratech and Zee Media Corporation.

“Indian equity markets corrected this week in line with the global market sell-off. The rise in US bond yields and the expected tightening of monetary policy by Central Banks is weighing on investor sentiments,” Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities.

“The 10 year US treasury yield moved higher this week, hitting 2 year high. The BSE 30 and NSE 50 index corrected by ~3% this week. Despite the weak market correction, the BSE small-cap index hit a new high this week and outperformed the large indices.”

“In line with broader markets, most sectors saw profit booking. The IT sector performed poorly this week with a negative return of ~6%.”

“Crude oil prices continue to march forward with Brent crude inching closer towards the $90 /barrel levels. FII turned out to be a net seller in the January month till date in India. Inflationary pressure, monetary policy tightening, rising bond yields, higher crude oil prices are some key challenges for the global markets. In addition to global factors, the domestic markets would track the Q3FY22 results, management commentary, and Union Budget,” he added.

BSE Midcap index lost 4.3 percent dragged by Info Edge India, Oracle Financial Services Software, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, Container Corporation of India, Max Financial Services, Voltas and Godrej Properties.

The BSE 500 index plunged 3.5 percent with Sterlite Technologies, Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra), Hikal, Dr Lal PathLabs, Info Edge India, PTC India, L&T Technology Services, Metropolis Healthcare, HCL Technologies, Birlasoft and Strides Pharma Science fell 12-23 percent.

“Nifty started the week on a positive note and surpassed 18300 mark on Monday. However, the index witnessed a reversal from the next day and we then witnessed a sharp correction throughout the rest of the week. Nifty breached the immediate support which led to some profit booking and in the process Nifty ended the week tad above 17600, with a loss of three-and a half percent over last week’s close,” said Ruchit Jain, Lead Research, 5paisa.com.

“Nifty witnessed a sharp correction during the week and it almost lost all the gains which it had posted during this month. We witnessed sell-off on back to back four sessions and the index almost tested the 17500 mark on the last trading session.”

“Before this corrective phase, we had seen a sharp surge too wherein the index had rallied from 16410 to 18300 without any meaningful correction and thus, this down move could be seen as a corrective phase within the uptrend.”

“The index has retraced 38.2% of the previous rally and has formed a ‘Doji’ candlestick pattern on the daily chart. This pattern near the support indicates indecision and thus a follow up move in the coming week is likely to dictate the near term direction,” said Jain.

Where is Nifty50 headed?

Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President – Technical Research, Kotak Securities

On weekly charts the Nifty has formed a long bearish bar reversal candle which indicates short term weakness going ahead. Also, the index closing below the 20-day SMA is broadly negative.

For the bulls the 50-day SMA or 17500 would act as a sacrosanct support level. Above the same, a pullback rally could be seen which could take the index up to 17775 and may rise further to 17900-17950 levels on further upside.

On the flip side, a close below 50-day SMA could trigger further weakness up to 17400-17300.

Ajit Mishra, VP – Research, Religare Broking:

Markets will react to the earnings of two heavyweights- Reliance Industries and ICICI Bank in early trade on Monday. Weak global cues are currently weighing on the sentiment and excessive volatility due to earnings is further adding to the participants’ worries.

On the index front, Nifty should hold 17,600 levels for any meaningful recovery, else it may see a further slide to 17,350 zone. We suggest preferring hedged positions and suggest keeping a check on position size until the market stabilises.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services:

In the coming week, the domestic market is expected to remain highly volatile with investors awaiting the outcome of the upcoming budget announcement.

As the recent earnings failed to excite the market, the earnings outcomes in the coming week will be a key factor in determining investor confidence.

Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Head of Technical Research, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas:

The index breached the 38.2% retracement of Dec – Jan rally on an intraday basis however received strong support as it approached 17500. Thus it managed to hold on to the key Fibonacci level, which is at 17610, on a closing basis.

The hourly momentum indicator got pushed into the oversold zone where it has developed positive divergence & is looking for a recovery. All these observations show that the index is at the far end of the short term correction & can attempt a bounce back.

On the higher side, 17700-17800 is an immediate resistance zone. Once that is crossed, the index can test 18000 on the upside. On the flip side, the immediate support zone is placed at 17600-17500.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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