US dollar gains as fears about sticky inflation persist; yen hits 34-year low

FILE PHOTO: Euro, Hong Kong dollar, U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, pound and Chinese 100 yuan banknotes are seen in this picture illustration, January 21, 2016. REUTERS/Jason Lee/Illustration/File Photo

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar rose on Thursday as weaker-than-expected March U.S. producer prices did not relieve concerns about persistent inflation which has reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will take its time cutting interest rates this year.

Fed officials who spoke on Thursday also repeated the need for a patient approach in easing monetary policy.

Data showed the producer price index (PPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month in March, compared with an 0.3% increase expected by economists polled by Reuters. On a year-on-year basis, it rose 2.1%, versus an estimated 2.2% gain.

The U.S. currency fell after the PPI data, but has since retraced its losses.

“The (PPI) data certainly helped smooth some of the rough edges off yesterday’s print,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto.

“A number of components that go into the Fed’s preferred personal consumption expenditures index came in much cooler than expected – but services cost growth remained elevated for a third consecutive month, helping ratify a more cautious approach to cutting policy rates.”

A separate report showed 211,000 U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended April 6, compared with a forecast for 215,000, reflecting persistent labor market tightness. The dollar barely responded as investors focused on inflation.

In midday trading, the greenback was flat against the yen at 153.24 yen, after sliding below 153 yen after the data. Earlier in the session, the dollar hit a fresh 34-year high of 153.32 yen.

The yen’s slide against the dollar has brought intervention fears back as authorities in Tokyo reiterated they would not rule out any steps to deal with excessive swings.

Japan intervened in the currency market three times in 2022 as the yen slid toward a 32-year low of 152 to the dollar.

The dollar index rose 0.2% to 105.38.

Following the PPI data, the U.S. rate futures market has priced in a 69% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, the CME’s FedWatch tool showed. This timeline emerged after Wednesday’s hotter-than-expected consumer price index last month. For weeks, rare futures had factored in a June rate cut.

Fed fund futures have also pared back the number of rate cuts of 25 basis points (bps) this year to fewer than two, or roughly 43 bps, from about three or four a few weeks ago.

“Market-implied rate expectations haven’t budged materially from yesterday’s levels and extraordinarily wide rate differentials are keeping the U.S. dollar elevated,” said Corpay’s Schamotta.

In other currencies, the euro was last down 0.2% at $1.0716. Earlier, it fell to a two-month low of $1.0699 after the European Central Bank held interest rates at a record high of 4% as expected, but sent a signal it was preparing for a cut.

In the United States, the Fed signaled on Thursday that a rate cut is not imminent.

New York Fed President John Williams said while the U.S. central bank has made considerable progress in lowering inflation, it does not yet need to move to an easier monetary policy setting given volatile movements in inflation.

“There’s no clear need to adjust monetary policy in the very near term,” given where the economy now stands, Williams said.

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voter this year on the Fed’s policy-setting committee, echoed the same sentiment. He said on Thursday the latest numbers did not increase his confidence that price pressures were easing on a broader basis throughout the economy.

(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Alun John in London; editing by Jonathan Oatis and Richard Chang)