Tamil Nadu | A formidable front

Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) again be the third-largest party, behind the BJP and the Congress, in the 18th Lok Sabha? It’s a question that’s being bandied about in Tamil Nadu a lot these days as the state braces to vote in the first phase of the general election on April 19. The ruling DMK faces a different challenge this time, considering that rivals All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the BJP have forged separate alliances, unlike in 2019, to make it a triangular contest. The Tamil nationalist Naam Thamizhar Katchi (NTK) makes the contest, at least on paper, a quadrangular one. NTK had almost 7 per cent vote share in the 2021 assembly polls, finding favour among the younger voters. The party didn’t win any seats, but proved it could upset outcomes in close fights.

As you may have noticed, the Congress doesn’t figure in the above para—and rightly so. But it’s ensconsed within the enduring Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) of the DMK, which has the upper hand this time as well. If they are pulling out all the stops, it’s to win all 39 LS seats (it lost only one in 2019). The other SPA constituents are the two Left parties—the CPI and the CPI(M)—the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and a rainbow of minor Tamil parties. Count here the Dalit party Vidhuthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), the vocal Vaiko’s Marumalarchi DMK (MDMK) and the Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi (KMDK) that has support in the western districts, particularly Coimbatore.

Actor Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) is also onboard after he struck a deal with DMK supremo M.K. Stalin and famously declared, “I have shaken hands where I should shake hands, not for position but for the sake of the country.” MNM is not contesting, but Haasan will be made a Rajya Sabha MP from Tamil Nadu in the 2025 biennial elections. Apart from the SPA allies, niche players such as the Thamizhaga Vazhvurimai Katchi (TVK), led by firebrand T. Velmurugan, and Muslim outfits Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK) and the Manithaneya Jananayaga Makkal Katchi (MJMK) have expressed support. Electoral math, based on vote share, gives the DMK a decisive advantage. In the 2021 assembly election, the SPA won 45.4 per cent of the votes, a crucial 5.8 percentage points more than the AIADMK-BJP combine.

Reality bites

The AIADMK is gradually waking up to the harsh realities of politics without power after a decade in government. Since the May 2021 loss, it has realised that the allia­nce with the BJP is hurting its Dravidian identity, turning it first into a Trojan horse for saffron and then into prey. Meanwhile, internal convulsions led to former deputy CM O. Panneerselvam (OPS) being expelled and ex-CM Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) seizing control as party general secretary. The AIADMK formally broke off with the BJP in September 2023. The existential crisis has only deepened with ally Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) deciding to go with the BJP. The OPS faction, too, has pledged support to the third front, though he has no party to speak of and is fighting as a BJP-backed independent from Ramanathapuram. The AIADMK is now left with minor allies—the late actor Vijayakanth’s Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) and the Puthiya Tamizhagam (PT). The 2019 general election, the first after CM and ‘Puratchi Thalaivi’ J. Jayalalithaa’s passing in 2016, had seen the AIADMK reduced to one seat and a vote share of under 20 per cent.

EPS has an uphill task trying to win seats and leverage that into relevance for the 2026 assembly polls. “Our strength is that we have manpower (polling agents) down to the last booth across the state,” says ex-minister B.V. Ramana. Another advantage is that many AIADMK contestants are ‘resourceful’. With declared assets of Rs 583 crore, the party candidate in Erode, Ashok Kumar, is one of the richest in the state.

The BJP, as is its wont in states where it is seeking a foothold, is looking at incremental gains with Prime Minister Narendra Modi again doing much of the heavy lifting (he has visited the state at least 10 times in the past 6-7 months). The sengol display as a symbol of Tamil pride at the inaugural of the new Parliament building, the announcement of projects worth over Rs 30,000 crore for the state (most of which the PM himself inaugurated), the regular Kashi-Tamil Sangamam programmes in Varanasi, the ‘En Mann, En Makkal (My Soil, My People)’ yatra by state BJP chief K. Annamalai that covered all 234 assembly constituencies, have all helped raise the party’s profile. The PM’s latest gambit has been raking up the Katchatheevu issue and portraying it as an abject surrender by the Congress-ruled Centre in Delhi in collusion with the DMK in Chennai 50 years ago. It’s an emotive issue, especially in the southern Tamil Nadu coastal region.

The game plan is to break the 57-year-old duopoly of the Dravidian majors in 2026. In his speeches, Modi repeatedly berates the DMK over its ‘misrule’ in the past three years, its dynastic politics and its anti-Hindu leanings without overdoing the Ayodhya Ram mandir consecration (it has not had much resonance in the state). The goal, for now, is to get the vote share to double digits (a distinct possibility for it had scored close to 6 per cent in the 2022 local polls) and, hopefully, win 1-2 seats. The constituency focus is on Coimbatore, Nilgiris, Ramanathapuram, Kanyakumari, Tirunelveli and seats in and around Chennai.

Younger by the day

In a state where 80 per cent of the voters are under 50, all parties have fielded candidates with an eye on that factor—together, the DMK, AIADMK, Congress, BJP, PMK, DMDK and NTK have fielded 78 candidates under 50. The DMK has gone in for a mix of fresh faces and political heavyweights, with 11 new names among its 21 contestants. The BJP has done one better, launching 12 new faces in its 19 seats, while the AIADMK has an almost virgin crew, 30 newbies among its 32 candidates.

PM Modi with K. Annamalai (right) and Union minister L. Murugan at a roadshow in Coimbatore, Mar. 18; (Photo: ANI)

The DMK has also taken care not to ruffle caste equations, fielding nominees from communities dominant in their respective areas. It has picked candidates from the Vanniyar community in the north, Mukkulathor in the delta and southern districts, while going for Kongu Vellalar (or Gounder) candidates in western Tamil Nadu.

With Vanniyar-centric PMK fielding its candidates in most seats in north Tamil Nadu in the BJP alliance, the DMK has taken steps to blunt their chances. It has fielded Vanniyar nominees of its own in Arakkonam, Vellore, Dharmapuri, Arani and Salem in the north. With most of the top AIADMK leaders being Gounders, the DMK, too, has picked candidates from the community for the three seats in the west—Coimbatore, Pollachi and Erode—it is contesting. In the delta region, the party has chosen a Mukkulathor. It has fewer candidates from the community as most of the seats in the south, where their numbers are strong, have gone to the allies.

Stalin is leaving little to chance in what he calls the “final fight against fascism”. So, what lends the DMK its distinct edge? “Core ideological strength and Stalin’s strong leadership have been vital in the DMK’s revival. A crucial factor in the SPA’s success is the trust in the reliability of vote transfer to ensure the victory of allies,” says political analyst Ramu Manivannan. Social commentator N. Sathiya Moorthy adds, “The choice of constituencies, the firmness with which Stalin has dealt with allies and party aspirants alike, has not gone unnoticed…it has injected fresh energy to an already upbeat campaign.”

The DMK has raised issues such as the ‘threat’ the BJP poses to India’s federal polity and democracy, to Dravidian identity and cultural rights including the language question, and the tenuous Centre-state relations, especially financial concerns. The counter-narrative of the AIADMK and the BJP is about the DMK being a family party, much like many of its partners in the Opposition I.N.D.I.A. alliance.

CM Stalin with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi; (Photo: PTI)

The ruling party completes three years in office in May, so anti-incumbency will be a factor. Manivannan points to the faultlines and says, “Corr­uption allegations stick to the DMK like iron dust on a magnet, especially with the tainted and tired leaders surr­ounding Stalin. The family-first appr­oach has also spread to the districts with the next generation emerging from the homes of influential leaders.”

Meanwhile, the AIADMK, despite the absence of an iconic leader, remains an influential force because of its cadre strength and the voters’ identification with the ‘two leaves’ party symbol. EPS, now well-known and accep­ted as a leader in his own right, may lack Jayalalithaa’s charisma, but there is no denying he has steered the party out of some rough waters. “EPS may not measure up to party founder M.G. Ramachandran or Jayalalithaa,” says Moorthy, “but he had the gumption to pull out of the NDA, thereby ensuring that the AIADMK is a bigger draw this year. Many of those who drifted to the DMK have returned to the party.”

AIADMK boss E. Palaniswami, centre, with the party manifesto; (Photo: ANI)

The BJP’s presence has made it a three-cornered contest in many constituencies, while in some, like Kanyakumari and the Nilgiris, it is perceived as a straight fight between the saffron party and the DMK. Whether the party wins seats or not, the goal is to push the AIADMK to third place wherever it can. Such an outcome could help the saffron party project itself as a credible alternative in Dravidian Tamil Nadu ahead of the 2026 state election.

The BJP’s principal ally in the state is now the PMK, but analysts believe that the alliance will not help it win seats. “Neither party has strongholds to share, but with the PMK’s fixed five per cent vote share, the BJP is trying to achieve a tactical advantage of denying the AIADMK,” says Moorthy. PM Modi has skilfully avoided targeting the ex-ally, for the BJP is hoping to woo a significant number of the AIADMK rank and file by the time the 2026 assembly election comes up. By getting the PMK onboard, it also expects to erase the perception of being a pro-Brahmin party in the state.

Besides the PMK, the BJP has enlisted smaller parties to contest on its lotus symbol which, on paper, will show the party vote share to be higher than it is. By fielding prominent faces like Union minister of state L. Murugan in the Nilgiris and ex-Telangana governor Tamilisai Soundararajan in South Chennai, the party is hoping to boost vote share and visibility. Its campaign against corruption and nepotism in the DMK, though, is losing steam, especially after it chose the PMK and Tamil Manila Congress as allies.

The chinks notwithstanding, analysts maintain that the DMK remains the party to beat in Tamil Nadu. “As of now, the DMK enjoys a clear edge,” says Manivannan. “The party/government’s ideological resistance to the BJP has reinvigorated the spirit of social justice and the Dravidian movement in the state.” Still, it will take all of Stalin’s skills to win big as the DMK and allies did in 2019.

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