Four possible reasons why MLB free-agent market has remained frozen despite big names still on market

In roughly three weeks, pitchers and catchers will begin reporting to spring training camps across Arizona and Florida. Real live baseball is close to returning and yet so many free agents remain unsigned. So many! Twenty-four of our top 50 free agents are still looking for work. And we’re not talking about middle relievers and backup catchers. Stars are available. Among them:

• LHP Blake Snell (reigning NL Cy Young winner)
• OF Cody Bellinger (former NL MVP and reigning NL Comeback Player of the Year)
• LHP Jordan Montgomery (2023 postseason hero)
• 3B Matt Chapman (four-time Gold Glover)

You can come up with reasons to avoid any and all of these guys (Snell walks too many batters, Chapman didn’t hit much after April, etc.) but the larger body of work tells us these are four really good players who would make just about every team better. Yet, they remain unsigned, as do dozens of others who don’t have the same credentials.

What gives? At first we all thought Juan Soto was holding up the market. Then it seemed like everyone was waiting for Shohei Ohtani. Then it was Yoshinobu Yamamoto, right? Surely the market would begin to move once Yamamoto signed. Instead, nothing. Or not much, really. We get maybe two or three free-agent signings a week, and that’s it. The market is frigid.

Eventually these players will sign — I promise you the reigning NL Cy Young winner will not be forced into retirement — but when will they sign? I have no idea and I don’t think anyone does. So what’s holding up the market? Here are four possible reasons the free-agent market is moving at a snail’s pace with spring training approaching.

1. This isn’t a great free-agent class

With all due respect to the players involved, this was not the best or deepest class to start with. Ohtani is a megastar and Yamamoto is expected to be a megastar given the contract he signed. Otherwise, the free-agent class was short on star power and prime-aged talent. Lots of good players are available but very few truly great players are on the open market.

Rather than pay a good player like a great player because that’s who’s available, teams are sitting on the sidelines and waiting for the prices to drop into a more reasonable range. As we get closer to spring training, players will get antsy and want to sign. That’s the teams’ hope, anyway. Eventually desperation will set in and the prices will come down, and that’s when teams will act.

2. Boras controls the top of the market

What do Bellinger, Chapman, Montgomery, and Snell have in common? They are all Scott Boras clients. It is not a coincidence they are all unsigned in mid-January. Boras is more than willing to wait out the market with top clients and it’s by design. With Yamamoto off the market, Montgomery and Snell are the best available starters. And who do you have to call to get them? Exactly.

Boras controls the top of the free-agent market. Want an impact free agent? You have to go through him. It may seem like Boras has overplayed his hand — it often does, honestly — but the proof is in the pudding. Boras is the best and most powerful agent in the game because he gets great contracts for his clients, even if he has to drag their free agency out until late in the offseason.

It is not Boras’ job to keep the hot stove moving or make sure teams have the players they need in time for Opening Day. His job is to take care of his clients and his methods are tried and true. Boras controls the top of the market right now. Free agency will begin to pick up when one of his clients says he’s tired of waiting and wants to sign, or when a desperate GM meets his price.

3. Quality trade candidates are available

Although we’re still waiting for free agency to pick up, there have been several notable trades this offseason. The Soto trade is the headliner, obviously. There’s also the Robbie Ray trade, the Chris Sale trade, the Eugenio Suárez trade, the Tyler Glasnow trade, the Alex Verdugo trade, the Jarred Kelenic trade, and others. It’s been a fairly active trade market this winter.

There are still other good trade candidates out there, led by Dylan Cease. You can understand why teams may want to exhaust the possibility of a Cease trade before pivoting to Montgomery and Snell. Shane Bieber’s name is out there. So are Jorge Polanco’s and Max Kepler’s. Jonathan India’s too. There are viable alternatives to free agency available on the trade market.

This is a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy, however. For example, teams may be holding off on pursuing Montgomery or Snell until they see what happens with Cease, but White Sox GM Chris Getz has a high asking price Cease because the alternative is, well, giving Montgomery or Snell a big contract. It’s one big stalemate. Everyone’s waiting for someone else to blink.

4. The Diamond Sports Group situation

Diamond Sports Group, which operates the various Bally Sports regional networks, is going through bankruptcy proceedings, and several clubs are in danger of losing their local television contract. That includes the defending World Series champion Rangers, the always popular Cardinals, the Twins, and others. There’s a lot of uncertainty with local television revenue right now.

Because of that, some teams have hit pause on their spending, or not raised payroll as much as you’d normally expect. That has hurt free agency as well. Why haven’t the Rangers re-signed Montgomery yet? It’s not because they don’t want him. It’s because their television situation is unsettled and they have to get their ducks in a row before moving forward with a big free-agent contract.

I don’t know how the Bally Sports situation will ultimately play out. There will be some short-term pain, undoubtedly, but MLB and the various teams will come out OK on the other side. They always do. Until this is resolved though, more than a few clubs are not willing to take on additional money. There are simply fewer spenders out there right now.