LS polls: In Odisha, BJP draws plan to make gains in former ally’s citadel
Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik in Jajpur district of the state on March 5.
Bhubaneswar: Friendly ties with the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) going back to 1997, when it helped carve out the regional party as a breakaway fraction of the Janata Dal, eventually proved to be an impediment for the Bharatiya Janata Party’s growth in Odisha, leaders in the eastern state said.
The two parties, which have been allies and shared friendly ties for over two decades, are now competing against each other in the simultaneous Lok Sabha and assembly polls in Odisha, where the political battle has intensified with each party vying to outmanoeuvre the other.
Elections to the 21 Lok Sabha seats in Odisha will be held in four phases on May 13, 20, 25 and June 1. Polling for the assembly seats in corresponding Lok Sabha constituencies will be held simultaneously. The results will be declared on June 4.
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The BJP, with eight Lok Sabha members and 23 legislators in the state, has set its sights on doubling the number of MPs and forming the government in the eastern state. At an election rally on May 6, Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted that a BJP-led government will be sworn in on June 10 and that June 4 will be the expiry date of the Naveen Patnaik government which has been in power in the state for five terms.
Patnaik, who is the longest-serving chief minister of the state, in his sangfroid demeanour, dismissed it is as “daydreaming”.
A tough journey
The BJP’s journey for expansion in Odisha has been a difficult one, not due to a formidable opponent thwarting its moves but because it was taking on a “friendly opponent” that made gaining a foothold difficult.
“The BJP gave Naveen Patnaik the resources and strategic help to create the BJD in 1997. During those long, suspenseful days preceding the decision of whether he would ally with the BJP, it was Pramod Mahajan (late BJP leader) who encouraged Patnaik and his close aides to take the plunge,” a senior BJP functionary said on condition of anonymity.
The meetings held at Patnaik’s Delhi residence, with Ashok Das, Bijoy Mahapatra and Tathagata Satpathy in attendance, culminated in the announcement of a new political entity in the mineral-rich state that also had some of the most backward districts of the country. The two parties became allies in 1998.
“Since then, we have never had a chance to aggressively pursue our agenda, ideology or even expansion in the state,” the functionary said.
When the devastating super cyclone, Paradip, hit Odisha on October 29, 1999, then prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee extended all help to the state — in a move that BJP leaders say set the stage for the cementing of ties between the two parties.
“Over the years, owing to the equation between our leaders we, had to first operate within the limitations of alliance politics, and then as friendly ties since we needed the BJD’s support in Parliament,” the senior leader added.
In 2024, however, the equations are realigning.
“Although the BJP contested elections before [as well], the shift happened in 2017, when we won over 300 of the 853 zila panchayat posts. That is when the BJD began to see us as a challenger,” a second BJP leader said, also asking not to be named.
It was only then that work on setting up offices, identifying leaders and attacking the BJD-led government on issues began in earnest. BJP national general secretary Sunil Bansal, one of the trusted strategists who has worked well in states such as Uttar Pradesh, was given charge of Odisha in August 2022. The state cadre was encouraged to take an aggressive posture against the BJD.
“A lot of work needed to be done for having our workers at every booth, organise the structure at the mandal level, the lowest administrative block. But we did that in 2019, our vote share increased as did the seats,” the second leader said.
The results in the 2019 Lok Sabha and assembly elections showed an upward curve from five years ago. The party went from 16.9% vote share to 38.4% in Lok Sabha and from 16.12% to 32.49% in the assembly.
Attacking the CM
The BJP’s election strategy in Odisha is pitched on the promise of a better development model, empowerment of youth, women and the marginalised sections, and through the emotive issue of Hindutva ideology.
But it is also pushing a “missing chief minister” narrative, claiming there is a vacuum.
“This election is for badlav (change). There are three things missing: the chief minister, his absence from administrative decision making, and his grasp on political and party issues. And the people of Odisha can see this,” said a third BJP functionary, who is a key member of the party’s strategy building, asking not to be named.
Challenging the narrative of a popular CM, the third leader said the popularity and charisma of Patnaik has been on the wane and since 2019 has accelerated towards decline.
“The fact that some of his oldest colleagues and confidants like Bhartruhari Mahtab have quit the party is an indication of how things have changed in the state. And how BJP has taken the centre stage as the alternative,” the third leader said.
Mahtab, the former BJD lawmaker and now BJP’s candidate from Cuttack, backs the “missing CM” charge. “The person who was in the driver’s seat leading the state and the party has been relegated to the background. A person who was once upon a time his private secretary is now controlling the party,” he said, in an apparent reference to VK Pandian, the bureaucrat-turned-politician.
Claiming he sees “no future” for the BJD, Mahtab added: “I say this not because I’m not there, but because I see how there was a gradual loss of support base for the regional party. In 2014, we had 20 MPs out of 21, in 2019 it came down to 12. That was an indication of something wrong.”
To be sure, the ostensible “silence” of Patnaik is not a recent phenomenon. He is known for brevity and for not attacking his political opponents with innuendo or abuse.
Tussle over schemes
In the BJP’s long list of charges against the BJD are its “failures” to stem migration, create jobs, support agriculturists, build health care facilities, and bringing in companies and contractors that are “non-Odia” for major work and projects.
“There are hospitals without doctors even in the urban areas. Between 2005 and 2014, 247 farmers died by suicide, agriculturist are not getting fair price for their crops and the state ranks number one in the cases of abduction in the country. In 2021, the number of cases of violence against women was 14,853, which is a matter of concern,” the third BJPleader quoted above said.
The BJD, however, counters these allegations, with spokesperson Lenin Mohanty saying the schemes that the BJP attacks cater to millions living on the margins.
“The Biju Swasthya Kalyan Yojna caters to one crore (10 million) people, the scheme for lactating mothers to 65 lakh (6.5 million) women, while 70 lakh (7 million) women benefit from self-help groups and 60 lakh (6 million) senior citizens get financial help,” he added.
He said the Odisha’s transformation story is for all to see. “Welfare is at the core of the policies, and we have seen growth in all spheres, from sports to industry,” the spokesperson added.
Strategy and management consultant, Devasis Sarangi, who has moved back to Odisha after years of working outside the state, pointed out that to overcome the challenge of providing employment, the Naveen Patnaik government identified sports as a medium for engagement with the youth and for the empowerment of the socially and educationally marginalsied tribal communities.
“It also used it as a political tool and an entity to make a difference,” he said, adding that there is scope for the BJP to move in, but to get a toehold, it will need to focus attention on larger issues such as employment and infrastructure development.
Amid a tussle between the two parties over whose welfare policies are better, the BJP has managed to introduce the issue of Hindu pride. To mark the inauguration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, the party ensured that saffron flags with Lord Ram and the grand temple were liberally placed across the state. Special functions were organised, and workers were sent with packets of rice and the invitation to houses, particularly in the rural areas.
The BJP has, however, been careful not to get drawn into a controversy by being perceived as advocating Lord Ram over Lord Jagannath, the deity which draws devotion in Odisha.
“When the Ram Temple inauguration was in the news, the BJD came up with the Jagannath Parikrama Parikalpa. The grand show of highlighting the renovation work around the Jagannatha temple was their way of countering the BJP’s attempts to use Ayodhya as an issue to draw voters,” Anoop Rout, a businessman in Puri, said.
Naveen vs who?
The BJD stresses the BJP does not have an acceptable CM face in the state, and that it lacks organisational support.
Union education minister Dharmendra Pradhan, who is contesting from Sambalpur Lok Sabha seat, said the BJP has grown organically in the state. “We were number three in 2014, number 2 in 2019 and will be number 1 in 2024…we have leaders and a strong network on the ground,” he said.
Pradhan said the BJP is the only party that has offered an alternative to the BJD, which, he claimed, “has no vision, no schemes and is steeped in corruption”.
But winning a personality battle against a leader such as Naveen Patnaik is no mean task.
A former BJD leader said the emergence of a regional party such as the BJD was in response to the state rejecting the national parties. “The BJD was seen as a viable option to the Congress. Although the BJP is pitching itself as an alternative, the issue of regional pride, and assertion of identity may create room for a newer entity that has its roots in the state and is anchored in its traditions and customs,” the former leader said.
But the possibility of a “split” or the “emergence” of an outfit that taps into the aspirations of the people in the near future cannot be ruled out, he said, adding: “Which is perhaps why the BJP does not want to leave space for any other party.”
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