Could Nikki Haley 'smoke' Trump in New Hampshire? Chris Christie dropping out gives ex-South Carolina governor the 'final puzzle piece' to pull off a 'seismic shock' in the second 2024 contest

Every major poll conducted in New Hampshire in January shows former U.N. Amb. Nikki Haley getting half of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's votersChristie dropped out of the 2024 race Wednesday, though said Haley was 'not up to this' on hot mic shortly before his announcement Haley could get about a 6 percent bump from Christie's exit, though she'd still lose to former President Donald Trump by 8 points in the Granite State 

Every major poll conducted this month in New Hampshire shows that Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley is poised to benefit now that former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has exited the presidential race.

On Wednesday night, Christie announced in New Hampshire that he was folding up his campaign.

Without saying names he sassed Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for refusing to fully reject former President Donald Trump, while backstage he was caught on hot mic saying that Haley would ‘get smoked’ by Trump and ‘she’s not up to this.’

Still, she stands to attract Christie’s voters in the state that holds that nation’s first presidential primary, eight days after the Iowa caucuses, and has changed the trajectory for candidates in past races.

With Christie’s exit, Republican strategist Matthew Bartlett told The New York Times Thursday that Haley was obtaining ‘the final puzzle piece,’ after receiving prominent endorsements from conservative Don Bolduc, the GOP’s failed 2022 New Hampshire Senate candidate and the more moderate Granite State Gov. Chris Sununu.

‘If she were to win New Hampshire, or even if she were to come in a very close second, that will be a seismic shock in the Republican Party,’ said Bartlett, a former Trump appointee who’s not affiliated with any of the current 2024 campaigns.

Every major poll conducted this month in New Hampshire shows that Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley is poised to benefit now that former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has exited the presidential race

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie dropped out of the 2024 presidential race Wednesday night in New Hampshire (pictured). He dissed Haley on hot mic on his way out, though polls have showed she’s the second place pick for about a half of his New Hampshire voters

The Real Clear Politics polling average currently has Trump with 43.3 percent support among New Hampshire voters, while Haley sits at 29 percent, a difference of 14.3 percent.

Christie had 12 percent support before he pulled the plug Wednesday.

When Christie supporters in New Hampshire were asked to name their second place pick, an Emerson College poll released Thursday found that 52 percent selected Haley.

Two surveys released Tuesday – the CNN/University of New Hampshire survey and the Suffolk University/USA Today/Boston Globe poll – both found that 48 percent of Christie’s supporters had Haley as their second place choice. 

If those trends hold, Haley would be around 8 points behind Trump in New Hampshire.

On Wednesday, Trump’s pollster John McLaughlin predicted an 8 point loss for Haley in the Granite State. 

He argued that in order to attract some of Christie’s voters Haley would drift too far to the left and lose some of her current support.  

‘Christie’s withdrawal to attract his voters will only pull Nikki Haley further to the left,’ McLaughlin said. ‘For this reason, in the 2-way New Hampshire ballot that would factor a Christie withdrawal, President Trump still wins – Trump 52%-44% Haley.’ 

McLaughlin’s math didn’t account for any momentum Haley gets, which could swing more undecided voters in her direction, something her surrogates are counting on. 

‘Here’s what I’ve learned about the good folks of New Hampshire. They have an open mind until the election and many of those voters that were leaning toward Chris Christie, their No. 1 vote, Nikki Haley was always their second,’ said former Rep. Will Hurd, a former 2024 hopeful who endorsed Haley as he exited the race. 

He talked to reporters in the spin room after Wednesday night’s GOP debate in Des Moines. 

Hurd also said ‘absolutely’ that Haley had the momentum in the Granite State. 

Additionally, ‘undeclared’ voters are able to vote in the state’s January 23 primary, which could also give Haley a multi-point boost.