Looking for the peak: the cautious optimism over stalling UK Covid cases

Asia's Tech News Daily

The Covid pandemic has been a story of twists and turns, with the situation often developing quickly.

Looking for the peak: the cautious optimism over stalling UK Covid cases
© Provided by The Guardian Photograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

For much of October, confirmed cases in the UK have risen daily – largely driven by increases in England and Wales.

The situation has provoked consternation, with voices ranging from the head of the NHS confederation to the British Medical Association and a number of leading scientists urging the government to implement its “plan B” – a series of “light touch” measures such as advice to work from home if possible, mandatory use of face coverings in some settings and the introduction of vaccine passports.

Looking for the peak: the cautious optimism over stalling UK Covid cases
© Photograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images About 1 in 56 people in the UK have Covid with symptoms, according to data from the last five days.

But, at least on the surface, it seems that the rise in cases may have stalled, while modellers who contribute to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) have suggested cases may decline in the coming weeks even without extra measures.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Wednesday, Prof John Edmunds, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said work by three groups of researchers who have modelled potential scenarios pointed in a similar direction.

“If you take the consensus, we all feel that we might see cases either levelling off or falling in the next few weeks,” said Edmunds, who sits on Sage.

One reason for that is the expected decline of cases in children – the group where infection levels are highest. “The epidemic in the last few months has been really driven by huge numbers of cases in children … and that will eventually lead to high levels of immunity,” Edmunds said.

Related: Deep within the UK’s shocking Covid data, there may be reasons for optimism

But while the models offer cause for optimism, there is also a need for caution. Reported new Covid cases in the UK reached a recent daily high of 52,009 on 21 October before falling for four consecutive days. But in the past two days they have risen again, reaching 43,941 on Wednesday.

And that may just be the tip of the iceberg. According to the latest Zoe Covid study figures – based on PCR and lateral flow test data from up to five days ago – there are 92,953 new daily symptomatic cases of Covid in the UK on average, with about 1 in 56 people in the UK having the virus with symptoms.

As Prof Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London notes, while the models point in a similar direction, there is uncertainty about when a peak would be seen.

Another consideration is that many schools in England are closed for the half-term holiday. Half-terms have previously led to a fall in infections among children, although that would not be expected to be seen immediately. But experts say the break can also lead to a drop in testing.

Speaking to the Guardian this week, Edmunds said it was too early to say whether cases had reached a peak.

“After half-term we will have to evaluate where we are; do cases start to go up again or not?” he said.

That situation may not be the same across all regions. London, for example, has had some of the lowest Covid case rates in the country during the autumn despite relatively low rates of vaccination, possibly because the capital was hit hard by previous waves, meaning a high proportion of the population has some level of protection. Meanwhile, parts of the south-west have seen large increases in case rates over the same period.

That means cases could pick up again after half-term in some areas, but not others.

It will take another couple of weeks before it becomes clear whether cases in the UK are really declining.

If a peak in cases has been reached, it would suggest that Covid hospitalisations will soon peak too. However, with concerns that this winter could bring higher than normal levels of flu and other respiratory infections, and the NHS already loaded with an enormous backlog of routine treatments, the question remains as to whether a levelling or even a decline in Covid cases – and hospitalisations – will be enough to prevent “unsustainable pressure” on the NHS.

Internet Explorer Channel Network
Asia's Tech News Daily
News Related

OTHER NEWS

ExWHUemployee drops major update on West Ham's striker search, fans will be buzzing - opinion

© Provided by Football FanCast West Ham boss David Moyes during Europa League training at Rush Green West Ham United are set to launch a bid for Adam Hlozek this ... Read more »

‘It makes zero sense': LeBron James criticises high school players wearing masks under their chins

© Getty Images The LA Lakers superstar himself this week was placed in the NBA’s Covid protocols – Getty Images LeBron James has criticised players at his son’s basketball games ... Read more »

Seri starts: The predicted Fulham XI to face Bournemouth tonight

© Provided by Football League World Championship – Preston North End v Fulham Arguably the biggest game of the Sky Bet Championship season so far takes place this evening at ... Read more »

Pakistan Embassy in Serbia trolls Imran Khan on Twitter; officials say account hacked

© Provided by Business Today Pakistan Embassy in Serbia trolls Imran Khan on Twitter; officials say account hacked Pakistan has been crippled by the coronavirus situation and its economic impact ... Read more »

Alesi poised for shock TOM'S Toyota SUPER GT move

© Masahide Kamio Giuliano Alesi, #35 arto RC F GT3 Motorsport.com understands Alesi is poised to take over Yuhi Sekiguchi’s seat in what was the #36 Toyota GR Supra – ... Read more »

'Welcome to the fold': Singer Sidhu Moosewala joins Congress in Punjab

© Provided by Firstpost ‘Welcome to the fold’: Singer Sidhu Moosewala joins Congress in Punjab Punjabi singer Sidhu Moosewala on Friday joined the Congress in the presence of Chief Minister ... Read more »

Anand Rathi IPO oversubscribed by 2.40 times, retail portion booked 3.85 times on Day 2

© Subhash Helgaokar Anand Rathi IPO oversubscribed by 2.40 times, retail portion booked 3.85 times on Day 2 The public offer of Anand Rathi Wealth, one of the leading non-bank ... Read more »

How is India Responding to Omicron, Will There Be a Third Wave: Govt Issues FAQ on New Variant

© Provided by News18 How is India Responding to Omicron, Will There Be a Third Wave: Govt Issues FAQ on New Variant After India joined a growing list of countries ... Read more »

Shocking! Miscreants steal tyre of Mirage fighter jet from truck carrying military equipment in Lucknow

© Provided by DNA On Thursday, the Uttar Pradesh Police filed a case against unidentified miscreants after a tyre of Mirage fighter jet was stolen from a truck carrying a ... Read more »

5 Natural Energy Drinks You Should Add to Your Diet Right Away!

© KS Swati | India.com Lifestyle Staff 5 Natural Energy Drinks You Should Add to Your Diet Right Away! Picture Credits: Pixabay Natural Energy Drinks: We all like to go ... Read more »

Share Market Updates: Sensex tanks over 450 points, Nifty below 17,300; RIL slips 2%

© Provided by Business Today Share Market Updates: Sensex tanks over 450 points, Nifty below 17,300; RIL slips 2% Benchmark indices were trading sharply lower in afternoon session today, dragged ... Read more »

Man runs after goat as it escapes with office files in viral video from Kanpur. Watch

In a video that has gone viral online, a man was seen running behind a goat that escaped with some office files in its mouth. Yes, you read that right. ... Read more »

Google Pixel Watch codenamed "Rohan" is in the works, could launch next year to compete with Apple Watch

Despite having a dedicated Android platform for smartwatches in the form of Wear OS, Google has never made an attempt to come up with its own smartwatch. A new report ... Read more »

Yoga Asanas For Wedding Season: Try These 5 Yoga Asanas to Achieve Natural Glow on Your Big Day

© KS Swati | India.com Lifestyle Staff Yoga Asanas For Wedding Season: Try These 5 Yoga Asanas to Achieve Natural Glow on Your Big Day Yoga Asanas For Wedding Season: ... Read more »

Omicron: More Int'l Travellers Test Covid +ve, Samples Sent for Genome Sequencing in These States

© Provided by News18 Omicron: More Int’l Travellers Test Covid +ve, Samples Sent for Genome Sequencing in These States As the scare of Omicron becomes real in India, with its ... Read more »

Ralf Rangnick steps into the unknown at Manchester United with English dream finally realised

‘Endlich!’ You would have to stretch back to 1979 to trace the origins of working in English football being seeded in Ralf Rangnick’s mind. The German had signed up at ... Read more »

Inside dark minds of ‘cartel queens' who marry drug lords at 18, plot prison breaks & flaunt golden guns on Instagram

THEY are beautiful, rich… and absolutely ruthless. Often as fearsome as their male counterparts, the world's cartel queens have been responsible for everything from drug trafficking to robberies and even ... Read more »

Man Utd 3-2 Arsenal LIVE REACTION: Cristiano Ronaldo nets winning penalty as Carrick LEAVES club following victory

CRISTIANO RONALDO netted a brace as Man Utd beat Arsenal 3-2 in the Premier League on Thursday night. But there will be some concerns after the Portugal captain was forced ... Read more »

Antiques Roadshow guest stunned as expert reveals silver urns could sell for DOUBLE the price – with one major change

AN ANTIQUES Roadshow guest was stunned as he was told his silver urns could sell for TWICE the price he paid. But show expert Alistair Dickenson warned him that the ... Read more »

Cyclone 'Jawad': NDRF DG says 64 teams earmarked; all preparations done

The National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) has earmarked 64 teams to tackle the impending cyclonic storm ‘Jawad‘ that is expected to affect the states of Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West ... Read more »

Low-pressure system intensifies into Cyclone 'Jawad', to touch coast around Puri on December 5

A low-pressure system in the Bay of Bengal has intensified into a cyclonic storm ‘Jawad‘, the India Meteorological Department said on Friday. The cyclonic storm is likely to reach the ... Read more »

Haryana govt orders closure of schools in four districts neighbouring Delhi to curb air pollution

The Haryana government has ordered closure of all schools in its four districts adjoining Delhi with immediate effect in the wake of “deteriorating air quality” in the National Capital Region ... Read more »

An educational robot interacts with students at a Gaza school.

“Mr. Robot, a locally made educational robot, interacts with students to teach them electrical circuits and help them memorise their lessons. Read more »

Only 26% of Florida's foster children are vaccinated

Looking at ages 12 and older, the percentage of kids known to be vaccinated in foster care is about half of the general population of Florida children in the same ... Read more »

Five architecture and design jobs in the US including roles at Soho House and ASH NYC

We’ve selected five of the best US-based positions on Dezeen Jobs this week, including an interior designer in New York and a project architect in Los Angeles. © Provided by Dezeen ... Read more »

Pension fury after '£1,900 tax bombshell' plan put forward to 'hammer' savers

Pensions have been at the heart of recent economic debate after the Government suspended the triple lock policy. The state pension will rise by 3.1 percent, in line with September’s ... Read more »

Glenn Maxwell upbeat on Australia Test recall chances with Asian tours looming

Glenn Maxwell has revealed talks held with Australia selectors over a possible return to the Test lineup. © PA Images Glenn_Maxwell_Test_cricket.jpg Despite naming expanded training groups ahead of the Ashes ... Read more »

The TV interview that put Ralf Rangnick on the path to managing Manchester United

It was on the last Saturday before Christmas back in 1998 that a late-night TV interview is said to have changed the course of German football and the modern game ... Read more »

Premier League table 2021/22: Latest standings, fixtures, results for gameweek 15

The busy Christmas period continues in the Premier League this weekend with another round of matches across three days. © ES Composite PLMatchDayTableNEWv4.jpg League leaders Chelsea kick proceedings off with ... Read more »

Stokes impresses on last day of Ashes warm-up match

Ben Stokes backed up his two wickets on Thursday by scoring 42 runs from 56 balls in England’s final warm-up match ahead of the Ashes against England Lions in Brisbane. ... Read more »

Our film and TV recommendations: What to watch, from Boxing Day to The Hand of God

Want to hunker down in front of a screen but stuck for something to watch? Here are the films, TV shows and special streaming events on our cultural radar right ... Read more »

Yahoo Singapore's top 10 most-searched cryptocurrencies in 2021

(PHOTO: Getty) SINGAPORE — 2021 has been a groundbreaking year for the fast-growing cryptocurrency industry. Some countries are considering legalising crypto following in the footsteps of El Salvador which now ... Read more »

Black Friday fails to boost footfall

Shoppers on Oxford Street in London, on Black Friday. Picture date: Friday November 26, 2021. (PA Wire) Black Friday failed to boost high street footfall despite a resurgence in consumer ... Read more »

IMF picks chief economist Gita Gopinath as its second-highest ranking official

© Rodrigo Garrido Gita Gopinath is on leave from Harvard University’s economics department. Reuters The International Monetary Fund has picked its chief economist Gita Gopinath to become the fund’s second-highest ... Read more »

Everyone infected with Omicron at Norway Xmas party has mild symptoms

© Provided by Daily Mail MailOnline logo Dozens of Christmas party-goers who became infected with suspected cases of Omicron Covid in Norway have only mild symptoms, doctors have revealed.  Up ... Read more »

More than 150 maskless train passengers hit with £200 fines after Covid rules change

© PA Commuters on a London underground tube train wear face coverings Dozens of maskless passengers have been slapped with fines after compulsory face coverings were brought back in. Face ... Read more »

Army helps residents left without power for a week after Storm Arwen

The Army has been deployed to help residents who have been without power for a week since Storm Arwen caused “catastrophic damage” to the electricity network. © Owen Humphreys Storm ... Read more »

The New ROG Zephyrus M16 Is The 4K Performance Powerhouse For Content Creators

© Provided by Geek Culture A new laptop in the Republic of Gamers (ROG) line simply means one thing – raw performance for a versatile powerhouse focused on content creation ... Read more »

CBSE Term 1 Exam 2021: Important notice released on questions and answer keys

Central Board of Secondary Education has released an important notice for CBSE Term 1 Exam 2021. The notice has been released on questions and answers keys for Class 10, 12 ... Read more »

Indian Navy supports tri-services integration, Maritime Theatre Command should be finalised mid 2022: Navy Chief

Chief of Naval Staff Admiral R Hari Kumar at the annual Navy Day press conference. Speaking at his first annual Navy Day press conference, Chief of Naval Staff Admiral R ... Read more »
On free-english-test.com you will find lots of free English exam practice materials to help you improve your English skills: grammar, listening, reading, writing, ielts, toeic