Former military strongman with a murky past on track to become Indonesia’s next president
Jakarta: Former Indonesian general Prabowo Subianto, a two-time runner-up with a murky past as a military strongman, is poised for a first-round victory in his bid to be the president of the world’s third-largest democracy and nascent economic giant.
Indonesia’s historically reputable “quick counts”, performed by multiple organisations following Wednesday’s poll, indicated Prabowo secured the necessary votes to avoid a June runoff against either Ganjar Pranowo or Anies Baswedan.
Indonesian presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto shows a ballot during the election in Bojong Koneng, Indonesia.
If confirmed next month in the official tally, the 72-year-old would fulfil a decades-long dream of high office. Victory would also install Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the 36-year-old son of popular incumbent Joko Widodo, as the nation’s vice-president.
The early count for the biggest single-day election on earth suggested former Jakarta governor Anies was in second place and former Central Java governor Ganjar in third.
President and vice-president tickets must secure more than 50 per cent of the national vote. Every quick count on Wednesday night had the Prabowo-Gibran pairing securing this easily, some at almost 60 per cent with well over half the votes tallied. The candidates must also win at least 20 per cent of the vote in at least 20 of 38 provinces.
“By how things are going, it doesn’t look like they’ll have any problem,” said Ian Wilson, an Indonesia politics expert at Murdoch University.
A convoy of supporters of Indonesian Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto poses for photos on the way to the quick count.
“The only province that he’s under 20 per cent anywhere at the moment is Aceh and it’s still early days there too. The campaigning has worked would be my immediate reaction. The rebranding of Prabowo has worked. It shows the popularity of Jokowi and that whole argument of continuity and people not wanting dramatic change has worked.”
Some are urging caution with the quick counts given the official numbers will not be released until March 20 and the three-cornered presidential race adds a new layers of complexity.”
Even if Prabowo and Gibran failed to reach the necessary thresholds, most analysts believed they would successfully draw enough supporters from the first vanquished candidate to win in the second round.
But the apparent victory by the Prabowo/Gibran ticket, defying the expectations of many analysts and polls leading into the election with its margin, eliminates the rumoured nuisance of Anies and Baswedan cooperation and spares the ageing soldier from months of additional campaigning.
Prabowo lost presidential elections to Joko, commonly known as Jokowi, in 2014 and 2019 as a firebrand nationalist and disgruntled Islamist, respectively. This campaign, a more amiable affair, he and his army of spin doctors successfully rebranded him as an affable, grandfatherly figure who dances and loves animals.
Significantly, Prabowo promised in the campaign to continue the policy legacy of Jokowi, who is constitutionally barred from running for a third term and will leave the palace in October. The rapprochement, which began with Jokowi appointing his erstwhile antagoniser to the post of defence minister in 2019, has facilitated Prabowo’s political rehabilitation.
The softly spoken Jokowi climbed to power from outside the nation’s ruling elite and governed with action and pragmatism, endearing him to ordinary Indonesians and powering economic growth.
While he has been widely criticised for weakening key democratic institutions, recent polling showed his support after ten years in office is close to 80 per cent.
Depending on who’s being asked, Prabowo’s selection of Gibran as his running mate – broadly received as a means for Jokowi to maintain a form of political influence – is either symbolic of stability or unwelcome dynasty building.
Satinah, a 55-year-old housewife from the poor side of the Jakarta neighbourhood Simprug Golf 2, voted for Prabowo “due to Jokowi”.
“Since Jokowi became president, my son can get educational insurance [a Jokowi policy providing financial relief for school supplies], so I will continue my support.”
Dimas Purnowo, from the same neighbourhood, went with former Central Java Governor Ganjar after voting for Jokowi in 2014 and 2019.
A woman casts her ballot at a polling station during the election in Medan, Indonesia.
“Basically, I don’t want Jokowi to continue,” he said in reference to Gibran’s candidacy for vice-president. “I am satisfied with Jokowi’s performance, but, lately, he has been seen as supporting his son.
“Prabowo is actually okay, but Gibran is so inexperienced. I don’t think he’s suitable for the job. It’s just too early. But Prabowo’s past is also a problem for me. Basically, I’m not for them.”
“Prabowo’s past” includes allegations of human rights abuses in East Timor and of fomenting deadly anti-Chinese riots in 1998, charges he has long denied. But he was dismissed by the military following the fall of dictator Suharto in 1998 for his role in the abduction of democracy activists, twelve of whom remain missing. He says he has no knowledge of where they are or what happened to them.
Successive United States administrations nonetheless barred him from entry, until Jokowi brought him into his tent in 2019 as Indonesia’s defence minister.
More than 200 million Indonesians were eligible to vote and presidential and legislative elections to install close to 20,000 politicians across 6000 inhabited islands.
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