A pawn in a dangerous game: Hezbollah's role as an Iranian proxy - analysis

A Hezbollah fighter stands in front of anti-tank artillery at Juroud Arsal

Hezbollah stands at a crossroads after Iran’s attack on Israel.

Tehran launched drones and missiles from multiple directions; Hezbollah is a key Iranian-backed terrorist group. However, its role in the attack illustrates how it is trying to balance its role in Lebanon with its alliance with Iran.

Hamas launched its attack on Israel on October 7. One day later, Hezbollah joined in from the North. Over the past six months, it has posed as a support beam for Gaza and Palestinians. On Saturday, that talking point shifted because Hezbollah clearly supported Iran’s attack on Israel, which signals to Lebanon that Hezbollah is increasingly dragging Beirut into a potential escalation it might not want to be a part of.

On Friday, a day before the Iranian attack, Hezbollah escalated its attacks on the North. Now, Iran attacked using drones and missiles and mobilized the Houthis in Yemen to join. Hezbollah’s attack on Friday included dozens of launches and culminated over the next two days with attacks against the Golan: Over 150 rockets targeting military bases.

This is a serious escalation, the kind, in the past, Hezbollah only did when it claimed to respond to Israeli airstrikes deep inside Lebanon. It means that the Hezbollah threat to Israel coincided with the Iranian attack, and was part of Hezbollah showing support to its patron, extending far beyond Hezbollah’s claims to be backing Palestinians or “defending “ Lebanon. What it did was more openly join Iran as an acting proxy.

Grad rockets used by Hezbollah (credit: Alma Research Institute)

Grad rockets used by Hezbollah (credit: Alma Research Institute)

That night, Hezbollah no longer used force to support Palestinians, but rather was part of the Iranian response to Israel. It now becomes increasingly apparent that Hezbollah is acting on Iranian guidance.

Iran backed Hezbollah for years, dating back to the 1980s; key IRGC members supported it. Now, things have changed because Hezbollah is being used as an Iranian tool, meaning that Hezbollah will have a harder time pretending that it is merely “resisting” in Lebanon.

Hezbollah carried out more than 3,100 attacks on Israel since October 7. Now, it is expanding its usefulness to Iran as a proxy, but this very act could potentially harm its image in Lebanon which can put pressure on the group to change course.

It’s time for Hezbollah to make a decision

As Hezbollah’s true colors as a proxy are revealed, it is worth highlighting how Hezbollah has been holding Lebanon hostage to the Iranian escalation in the region. Israel’s goal in the North is to establish enough of a secure border to allow the return of the 50,000 or so displaced citizens; this cannot be done if Hezbollah is on the border and its threats are so clear. For that to happen, Hezbollah would have to be pushed back to a depth of more than 10 miles into Lebanon, or as far back as the Litani river. This would put Israel out of range of Hezbollah’s anti-tank missiles and its large short-range Burkan missiles and would make it harder for Hezbollah to conduct an October 7 type of attack.

As some in Lebanon become frustrated with Hezbollah’s actions, there may be an opportunity to achieve this goal. Hezbollah is facing pressures that it hadn’t before, and now has revealed its hand as working for Iran, which makes it harder for it to spread its propaganda about backing Gaza.

Many questions remain about what comes next in Lebanon. Israel and Lebanon signed a maritime deal in 2022 that was supposed to benefit both countries and ostensibly reduce tensions. Before the deal, Hezbollah threatened Israel and then escalated tensions in early 2023. This shows that it cannot be trusted.

It is unclear how Hezbollah will be deterred from its attacks on Israel. Time will tell if the Iranian-backed group will change course.