Lack of offense generating questions over Blue Jays' offseason approach

Toronto Blue Jays manager John Schneider.

After Friday’s 12-2 blowout loss to the Dodgers, the Blue Jays now have a 12-13 record over their first 25 games, and (via tiebreaker) sit in last place in the AL East.

While there has been plenty of inconsistency within the pitching staff, Toronto’s most glaring problem has been a lack of offense — the Jays rank 24th of 30 teams in runs (98), and their .197 average with runners in scoring position is the third-worst in the league.

This slow offensive start has only generated more questions (and second-guessing) about the Blue Jays’ offseason approach to upgrading the lineup, notwithstanding the team’s high-profile attempt at signing Shohei Ohtani. This isn’t to say what the Jays check in with a number of other bats, including a notable former Blue Jay slugger in Teoscar Hernandez.

As Hernandez told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, the Jays made contact “at the beginning” of the offseason and “said to not forget about them.” However, later talks didn’t yield much or any progress towards a deal, as “obviously when we exchanged numbers and years and all that stuff, they said they could not go that far. That was about it.”

Hernandez blossomed into an All-Star over his six seasons in Toronto, hitting .263/.320/.503 with 129 homers in 2419 plate appearances for the Blue Jays from 2017-22.  Despite this production, the Jays dealt Hernandez to the Mariners in November 2022 in exchange for Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko.

Hernandez was entering his final year of salary arbitration prior to free agency, plus the Jays felt a need to improve their outfield defense and contact hitting, as Hernandez struck out a lot and didn’t offer much in the way of glovework.

Considering that Swanson pitched well last season and Hernandez hit an underwhelming .258/.305/.435 in Seattle, Toronto’s logic in making the deal seemed sound.  The outfielder’s so-so numbers resulted in what was essentially a “prove it” type of contract in free agency, as Hernandez signed with Los Angeles on a $23.5M deal (including $8.5M in deferrals) covering just the 2024 season.

To date, Hernandez has bounced back quite nicely, to the tune of six home runs and a .267/.336/.486 slash line over his first 117 PA in Dodger Blue.

It is understandable why the Blue Jays might have been wary about committing $23.5M to a hitter coming off such an average season, and all things being equal financially, it is also possible Hernandez might’ve preferred joining a star-studded L.A. lineup rather than return to a team that just traded him only a year earlier.

That said, Hernandez’s April numbers would’ve obviously been a huge help to the Jays’ lineup, and perhaps a more prudent investment than the $18M in combined salary the team is paying Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa this season.

Kiner-Falefa’s bat has been decent enough, but he is one of several comparable infielders on Toronto’s roster, while Kiermaier has contributed next to nothing at the plate and is currently on the injured list dealing with inflammation in his hip flexor.

Ricky Tiedemann is another player on the mend, as the southpaw is on the seven-day injured list at Triple-A Buffalo.  Jays manager John Schneider provided some positive news on Tiedemann’s status Friday, telling MLB.com’s Julia Kreuz and other reporters that Tiedemann is dealing with ulnar nerve inflammation and not any structural damage to his left elbow.

It isn’t quite clear yet when Tiedemann might be back on the mound for Buffalo, but he should start throwing again within 7-10 days.

Ranked as one of baseball’s top pitching prospects, Tiedemann hasn’t pitched all that much over three pro seasons, with just 130 2/3 total minor league innings under his belt.  That total includes only 44 frames (32 at Double-A) in 2023, as Tiedemann battles biceps and shoulder problems for much of the year.

Heading into this season, Tiedemann also had hamstring and calf issues during Spring Training, then tossed eight innings over three Triple-A starts before his IL placement.

Getting Tiedemann healthy is the Blue Jays’ top priority, and he’ll need to bank some quality innings at Triple-A before garnering consideration for his first big league call-up. Some amount of extra pressure is perhaps unavoidable for Tiedemann given both the top-100 hype and his outsized importance on a Jays team lacking in rotation depth.

In the event of an injury within the starting rotation, Paolo Espino might be the next man up by default, as Bowden Francis is on the 15-day IL and Alek Manoah’s status remains in question given his shaky rehab performances.

Yariel Rodriguez has pitched well over his first three career Major League starts, so for now, Rodriguez has solidified his claim to the fifth starter’s job. As the Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath noted earlier this week, however, Rodriguez is on an unspecified innings limit since he didn’t pitch at all in 2023, and it remains to be seen how the Blue Jays might dole out those innings in the left-hander’s rookie season.

Rodriguez could be moved back to the bullpen at some point in order to limit his usage, but that would require someone else to step up for rotation work.

Manoah’s 11.85 ERA over 13 2/3 innings in his four rehab outings is hard to ignore, as even though rehab starts are more about health and figuring things out rather than results, Manoah is still being plagued by control problems and the home run ball.

The Jays placed Manoah on the 15-day injured list to begin the season as the right-hander was bothered by shoulder soreness during Spring Training, and as McGrath observes, the 30-day rehab window ends for Manoah on May 6. He could be optioned to Triple-A at that point, or potentially become an option for the 26-man roster if he looks better in what should be two more rehab outings.

Manoah is also slated to throw a bullpen session in Toronto this weekend in front of the team’s big league coaching staff.

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