The Tory leadership rivals who face losing their seat – and those who are safe

Another week, another call for the Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister to resign – from someone in his own party.

This time it seemed Sir Simon Clarke was in a rather lonely place when he went public to call for Rishi Sunak to step aside, warning he was leading the party to a catastrophic defeat.

Whilst many in the party do not deny the looming threat of election lost, they appear to be exasperated with any suggestion that it could oust Sunak and replace him with yet another leader – a fourth prime minister since the 2019 election.

At present there simply is not the appetite for another political coup.

But all this jostling for poll position is not just about who would be the best rival for Sunak. There is also the question of what would happen after the election.

If, as recent polls have consistently indicated, the Conservatives are ousted in the next election then the party in opposition would likely take stock and change leader.

Who that leader would be would depend on who remained in their seat. Based off the recent YouGov MRP poll – which looks at the predicted results on a constituency-by-constituency level – some of the most senior figures in the party may no longer be in Parliament.

Who of the Tory leadership rivals face losing their seat at next election – and who looks safe?

Key leadership contenders:

Rishi Sunak

The Prime Minister – and current party leader – represents Richmond, in North Yorkshire, which is due to become Richmond and Northallerton in the next election. It’s an incredibly safe seat and, according to the polling, Sunak is expected to hold on to it with a lead of ten per cent over Labour. So we are not expecting Sunak to be out of Parliament… unless, following a bruising loss at the polls, he decides to throw in the towel and move on from politics.

Kemi Badenoch

Ms Badenoch, the Trade Secretary, regularly tops polls of the most popular ministers among Conservative activists. This would put her in good stead in a future leadership contest given it is the party membership that usually has the ultimate say over who is elected. She stood against Sunak, and Liz Truss, in the leadership race last year and was eliminated in the fourth round – an impressive result for someone who was relatively poorly known and a junior minister. She is expected to hold her seat, of Saffron Walden – due to be renamed North West Essex – with a lead of more than ten per cent.

Penny Mordaunt

Another former leadership contest and Cabinet Minister, Ms Mordaunt is the MP for Portsmouth North. She is very popular among the Tory base and is considered an affective operator and has become increasingly well-known due to high profile roles she has had. Portsmouth North is, however, at risk of being won off the Tories by Labour. In 2019, Ms Mordaunt won with a huge 61 per cent of the vote. She has been increasing her majority in the seat since winning it off Labour in 2010 but polling data suggests Labour could scrape through this time – and are polling at three points ahead of the Conservatives.

Suella Braverman

The former Home Secretary has long been touted as the darling of the right of the party – with some lapping up her controversial rhetoric and willingness to go toe-to-toe on issues such as racism, immigration, policing and protest. It will not have gone unnoticed in the party that she was not a particularly effective minister when in Government – which may have damaged her leadership credential somewhat. But her seat, Fareham in Hampshire, is extremely safe with a majority of 26,000. At present, polling does not indicate the Tories will lose it.

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Johnny Mercer

The veterans minister was close to the top of the latest ConHome poll of popular Tories – enjoying the joint second highest satisfaction ratings with Penny Mordaunt. His political career could be cut short relatively early on, however, with Plymouth Moor View currently expected to be won by Labour with a seven point lead.

James Cleverly

The Home Secretary has not put himself forward as a leadership contender in the past despite polling fairly favourably among the members. His seat of Braintree in Essex is one of the safer constituencies so Mr Cleverly – with his experience of two of the four most senior Cabinet jobs already – may find himself poised to battle it out for the top one.

Jeremy Hunt

The Chancellor’s seat is currently under threat from the Liberal Democrats. South West Surrey will be changed with part of it taken in by the new constituency of Farnham and Bordon and the other taken into Godalming and Ash. According to the YouGov polling, both of these seats will are on course to be won by the Lib Dems – albeit with slim majorities. Mr Hunt has been rumoured to be planning to step down from Parliament after the election but he has not confirmed this himself.

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