Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2024: Busts from MLB simulation that predicted Daulton Varsho's difficult season

Apr 21, 2019; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers (11) on deck to bat at Tropicana Field.

The 2024 MLB season is quickly approaching and serious Fantasy baseball owners are locking in their 2024 Fantasy baseball draft prep with spring training officially underway. Angels superstar Mike Trout has been a stalwart for Fantasy baseball owners throughout his career. However, Trout battled through another injury-shortened season in 2023, playing just 82 games because of a fractured hamate bone. Trout finished last season with a .263/.367/.490 slash line with 18 homers and 44 RBI over 362 plate appearances.

Should Trout be on your radar when drafting a center fielder, or should you look elsewhere for value? A reliable set of 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings can help you answer that question and also identify other 2024 Fantasy baseball busts that you’ll want to avoid. Before finalizing your 2024 Fantasy baseball draft prep, be sure to see the 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Last season, SportsLine’s Projection Model identified several top Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts, including Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho.

Varsho set new career highs in doubles (23), triples (3), home runs (27), RBI (74) and stolen bases (16) in 2022 and Fantasy baseball managers were predicting he’d take another step forward in 2023, drafting him 73rd overall on average. However, the model saw some holes in his game and predicted him as a 2023 Fantasy baseball bust who wouldn’t live up to his Fantasy baseball ADP.

The result: Varsho’s OPS dropped from .745 to .674 and he also saw drops in home runs (20) and RBI (61), while failing to take advantage of the new baserunning rules (16 steals again). Anybody who followed the model’s advice and avoided Varsho in their Fantasy baseball drafts avoided a major headache.

The SportsLine model is engineered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy sites. And that same group is sharing its 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings and cheat sheets over at SportsLine, helping you find Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts long before your competition. Their cheat sheets, available for leagues on many major sites, are updated multiple times every day.

Any time more MLB news comes out about MLB free agency signings or Fantasy baseball injuries, the team at SportsLine updates its projections. Go to SportsLine now to see these proven Fantasy baseball cheat sheets.

Top 2024 Fantasy baseball busts

One of the Fantasy baseball busts 2024 the model is fading: Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner. He closed the 2023 season with a .283/.346/.383 slash line, nine homers, 68 RBI and 98 runs in 150 games. His speed was on full display last season as well, racking up 43 stolen bases. Hoerner’s ability to consistently reach base was reflected in 688 plate appearances, and his prowess on the basepaths made him a valuable asset for Fantasy owners.

However, Hoerner could be in line for regression this season. He has only played in at least 135 games twice during his career, and he struggles to generate a ton of power at the plate. Hoerner struck out a career-high 83 times last season while hitting just nine homers. He is the fourth second baseman off the board according to the latest 2024 Fantasy baseball ADP, but SportsLine’s model has him ranked behind 16 players at his position.

Another of the 2024 Fantasy baseball busts the model projects won’t live up to their ADP: Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Having just turned 22 last month, De La Cruz looks like one of the most exciting prospects in baseball after showing some incredible flashes during his rookie season in 2023. He hit 13 home runs (including four that went over 450 feet), drove in 44 and stole 35 bases over 98 games.

That incredible potential is a big reason why his current 2024 Fantasy baseball ADP is 37.50, but spending a fourth-round pick on a player who just slashed .235/.300/.410 is a big risk unless you’re in a keeper league. A .336 BABIP doesn’t seem to indicate that De La Cruz was particularly unlucky. Even if you’re expecting his overall batted-ball profile to improve, he’s guaranteed to fight swings and misses after being struck out 194 times across AAA and the big leagues. That’s why the model ranks him behind Willy Adames and Carlos Correa, who are being drafted more than 10 rounds later on average. See more busts at SportsLine.

How to find proven 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings

SportsLine’s model is also fading a surprising starting pitcher who is coming off the board in the third round on average in early 2024 Fantasy baseball drafts. The model is predicting this ace suffers a setback and finishes outside the top 15 at his position. Avoiding him until later on could be the difference in winning your league or going home with nothing. You can only see who it is here.

So which 2024 Fantasy busts should you be avoiding in your upcoming drafts? Visit SportsLine now to get 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings for every single position, all from the model that predicted Daulton Varsho’s falloff in 2023, and find out.