Key election results that could decide Rishi Sunak’s fate
Today’s local council and mayoral elections will prove the last formal test of voters’ opinions before the general election, expected later this year.
With 107 councils involved and 10 directly elected mayors to be chosen, plus a Parliamentary by-election, the results could prove a major political turning point ahead of the national vote.
Both Labour and the Conservatives are defending around 1,000 seats in council elections. There have been warnings that if the Tories lose upwards of 500 councillors and some high-profile mayoralties, it could catalyse rebels to move against Rishi Sunak, creating huge division ahead of a national vote.
But expectations for Labour are also high given recent polling, meaning anything less than a major clean-up could sow doubt about how confident Sir Keir Starmer should feel.
Many Tory voters are also expected to flock to the Liberal Democrats and even the Greens, clearing the way for Labour to lose out through tactical voting.
Here are the best and worst-case scenarios for each of the main parties in this year’s local elections:
Conservatives
Best case
Pollsters told i that “the bar is low” for the Conservatives in this year’s local elections, with the party still trailing Labour by almost 20 per cent in the national polls and Friday’s results expected to do little to turn that around.
However, some believe that a combination of lower-than-expected council losses and strong mayoral results could deliver a dose of optimism that the party needs.
Experts predict the Tories could lose around half of the 1,000 or so council seats up for grabs, meaning anything in the low hundreds could feasibly be touted as an improvement on expectations.
More symbolic victories could lie on the mayoral front. The Tories are hoping to hold onto two big mayoralities, with popular incumbent Andy Street trying to cling on to the West Midlands and Ben Houchen attempting re-election in the Tees Valley.
A YouGov poll earlier this week suggested Mr Street, who has attempted to distance himself from the Westminster Government in recent days, is narrowly ahead of Labour’s mayoral candidate for the West Midlands, Richard Parker.
The polling firm put Mr Street on 41 per cent, with Mr Parker on 39 per cent, although it said the 2 per cent gap means it is “too close to call”.
YouGov also found that in the Tees Valley, incumbent Lord Houchen was on 51 per cent, ahead of Labour rival Chris McEwan, backed by 44 per cent of voters.
Victory for the Tories in both elections would prove a bright spot for the Prime Minister in an otherwise gloomy set of results expected for the Conservatives.
The picture looks less optimistic for Ben Bradley, Conservative candidate in the East Midlands mayoral election. Polls put Labour on course for victory in the region, with its candidate Claire Ward currently ahead by 13 points, according to More in Common.
Pollsters are also keeping their eyes on the new mayoralty of York and North Yorkshire, with one telling i it was “more on a knife edge” than anticipated.
Chris Hopkins, the political research director at polling firm Savanta, said victories in mayoral elections could deliver “some momentum for [Mr] Sunak to shift the mood music”, though whether that lasts until the general election is another question.
Andy Street, the current Caption: Mayor of the West Midlands, hopes to cling onto his position (Photo: Carl Recine/Reuters)
Worst case
A bad set of results for the Conservatives would see upwards of 500 council seat losses and big names ousted in those symbolic mayoral elections, according to experts.
The council seats up for election were last contested in 2021, when then-prime minister Boris Johnson was enjoying a “vaccine bounce”, meaning significant losses are likely this time round.
At the same time, Tory rebels will be watching for major losses for mayoral candidates including Lord Houchen, who won more than 70 per cent of the vote in 2021.
How perilous the results could prove for Mr Sunak will depend on how his own party takes them. Poor ones could energise Tory plotters to try and oust the Prime Minister.
Rebels could also be provoked if the Tories are pushed into third place by Reform in the Blackpool South by-election, being held after Tory incumbent Scott Benson resigned after it emerged he had offered to lobby ministers in return for payments.
For a confidence vote in the PM’s leadership to be triggered, 52 Conservative MPs must submit letters of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers.
One group of Tory plotters have reportedly drawn up a 100-day policy plan for Mr Sunak’s replacement as party leader which includes multiple “quick win” policies aimed at turning around the party’s fortunes ahead of the next general election.
“I think it’s likely going to be a difficult night for the Tories – how difficult, I guess, is the question,” said Mr Hopkins.
“It’s really difficult to know what’s going on inside the mind of the Conservative rebels, and what their threshold would be for bad – or indeed, if they even have one. They could just go for [Mr Sunak] no matter what – it wouldn’t necessarily surprise me.”
Labour
Best case
Labour are widely expected to do well in the local elections, but are attempting to manage expectations in case of surprise losses.
A best case scenario would see the party gain upwards of “200 or 300 seats,” according to Mr Hopkins, plus a “strong London hold” and potential gains in the “West Midlands or Tees Valley [mayoralties] – or both”.
The party is hopeful of council seat gains in Harlow, Thurrock and Basildon for evidence that the tide is turning in the region, which has become more Conservative in the wake of Brexit.
Labour will also look to secure gains in traditional swing areas such as Bolton and Milton Keynes, plus Hartlepool – a Red Wall council where the Tories secured a shock victory in 2021 following a Westminster by-election, which delivered a significant blow to Mr Starmer at the time.
The party is also confident Andy Burnham can win another term as the Mayor of Greater Manchester.
London Mayor Sadiq Khan is widely expected to secure a third term, though the result could be closer than anticipated as polls have narrowed in recent days to help boost Conservative candidate Susan Hall.
Labour should also “comfortably win” the Blackpool South by-election, according to Mr Hopkins.
“If all of those things happen, Sadiq [Khan] wins by 15 to 20 points, and they take the West Midlands and Tees Valley and maybe even North Yorkshire, plus the Blackpool South by-election, then it doesn’t really get better than that,” he said.
Mayor of London and Labour party candidate Sadiq Khan at the launch of an advertising van for his campaign ahead of the London Mayoral election (Photo: Stefan Rousseau/PA)
Worst case
Labour will be likely to be able to shrug off one or two of those things not happening, but there will be question marks about why voters haven’t turned to Labour so close to a general election if they fail to gain some of the key mayoralties.
The opposition is also anxious about councils serving large Muslim populations, with the Israel-Gaza war proving a thorny issue for the party over the past few months.
It has led to numerous councillor resignations in areas such as Oldham, Burnley and Oxford, where the conflict in the Middle East has offered an opportunity for local politicians to voice their discontent with Mr Starmer’s leadership.
“Independents can always act as disruptors… and it could hurt Labour in certain seats,” said Mr Hopkins. “The anger seems to have died down a little, but I think in local races it probably hasn’t.”
Reform
Best case
Reform UK has used its social media in recent days to urge voters to “send a message to Westminster” by voting for its candidates in the local elections.
But Nigel Farage’s party is only standing in a small patchwork of councils in this year’s local elections, meaning it is still a long way off the coverage once offered by its predecessor, Ukip.
Reform will field just over 300 local election candidates – a long way short of the 1,000 each from Labour and the Conservatives.
A good day would see the party either secure gains in some council seats or prove it is capable of pushing the other two main parties into third place.
Pollsters have put Reform slightly ahead of the Tories in the Greater Manchester mayoral race. Dan Barker, who was selected only months ago as the Tory candidate, defected last month to Reform, with polling in recent days by More in Common putting him at 12 per cent.
It means that while incumbent Mr Burnham, who is polling at 63 per cent, is almost certain to win, Reform could still pip Conservative candidate Laura Evans, who is three points behind Mr Barker.
But most will be keeping close eyes on the Blackpool South Westminster by-election, where Reform is hopeful its candidate Mark Butcher can edge Tory candidate David Jones into third place.
That would send the message that Reform can translate a strong position in the polls into actual election results. Latest polling by YouGov has the party on 13 per cent – just 7 points behind the Conservatives.
Worst case
A bad set of results would see Reform unable to show that it has political clout at the ballot box.
“I think they have to really perform in Blackpool South – to be honest, I think they have to outperform their national polling numbers reasonably significantly for them to be taken seriously,” Mr Hopkins told i.
The Savanta director said it was a “shame from an academic polling point of view” that Reform are not standing candidates in more regions today, meaning the party’s standing as a serious political choice will prove “difficult to assess” in the run-up to the general election.
“The fact that they’re not standing in very many places just screams to the fact that they don’t have much of an infrastructure. I think that’s a problem for them,” Mr Hopkins told i.
“So ultimately, we’re going to have to assess the Reform UK vote share based on the wards that they’re standing in. In those, they really need to be pushing 10, 15, 20 per cent really.”
Many in the party hope Reform would see a major boost if Mr Farage, its current honorary president, returns to the fold as party leader.
This year’s local election results could either encourage him into doing so, either through a strong performance luring Mr Farage in, or the need for a political saviour in case of a bad set of results. But the latter could also put Mr Farage off altogether.
Liberal Democrats
Best case
The Liberal Democrats will hope to show they are serious rivals for the Conservatives across several Tory-held “Blue Wall” councils they are targeting.
Pollsters said the party’s success will largely depend on the scale of Conservative losses, with the Lib Dems hoping to scoop up lapsed Tory voters to secure “low hundreds” in terms of council seat gains.
The party is hoping to take control in Wokingham, in a result the Lib Dems are optimistic will herald their Parliamentary candidate for Wokingham, Clive Jones, unseating Sir John Redwood in the general election.
Sir Ed Davey, the leader of the Lib Dems, said on Tuesday that “lifelong” Tories were turning to the party because “the Conservative party no longer represents their values and no longer speaks up for them”.
“They know in a place like Wokingham if people want to get rid of the Conservatives they can vote Liberal Democrat,” he said.
The party is also hoping to overturn Tory majorities in Gloucester and Dorset as part of a revival in the south-west. The Lib Dems are similarly optimistic about defending their control of Hull council to show that they retain appeal across the country.
Worst case
The worst case scenario for the Liberal Democrats in this year’s local elections is “stagnation,” according to Mr Hopkins.
A serious slip compared to the 2021 local elections may prove that the party is no longer seen as a serious rival to the Conservatives, especially in areas such as the home counties.
“I think they always want to see some sort of progress, given some of the places where these races are taking place and the comparison between the Conservatives in 2021 ,” said Mr Hopkins.
“The Lib Dems will want to be making gains, and if they don’t then that would be a bad night.”
Greens
Best case
The local elections will also prove a test for the Green Party which has been gaining in the polls and has never been stronger in local government.
The party is mainly targeting Bristol, where it hopes to take control of the council in a result that could also help hand the Greens a second parliamentary seat at the general election.
The Greens are already the largest party in Bristol, and co-leader Carla Denyer is hopeful that strong results at the local elections will lay the groundwork for her to unseat Labour shadow Cabinet member Thangam Debbonaire.
The Greens are also challenging Labour in places like Norwich, Hastings and Worcester, and other regions where progressive voters have become disillusioned with Labour’s shift to the centre under Mr Starmer.
The Greens have also made progress in Conservative areas including parts of Suffolk, Sussex and Surrey, according to Mr Hopkins, meaning the party will be expecting and hoping for gains across the board.
Worst case
Like the Lib Dems, a bad result for the Greens would be failure to make any significant gains.
Beyond that, Bristol will serve as the main litmus test for the Greens’ standing in this year’s local elections, and failure to take control there would be a blow for the party.
It would dent the Greens’ hopes of securing a second MP at the general election, which Ms Denyer previously told i the party would use to hold a potential Labour government to account on issues such as the climate.
“Would voters rather have a 100 per cent Labour Government where Starmer can do whatever he wants unchecked? Where he can continue to U-turn and renege on promises he’s made?” she said.
“Or do they want to see a Labour Government with a handful of Green MPs there to make them honest, to hold their feet to the fire and to make sure they deliver ambitious climate policies and social justice policies?”