Kemelut gergasi hartanah China tidak beri kesan besar

© Provided by Berita Harian Gergasi hartanah China, Evergrande Group berdepan masalah kewangan. – AFP

KUALA LUMPUR: Kebimbangan mengenai sama ada pemaju hartanah China, Evergrande Group, akan gagal melunaskan pembayarannya berserta risiko penularannya telah mempengaruhi sentimen keseluruhan pasaran ekuiti Asia, namun kesannya terhadap pasaran saham Malaysia akan menjadi terhad, demikian mengikut AmInvestment Bank.

Bank pelaburan itu berkata, potensi risiko penularan terhadap pasaran ekuiti Asia pada masa ini adalah terhad melainkan jika kerajaan China membenarkan Evergrande Group mungkir dan tidak melakukan apa-apa untuk mengawal keadaan.

“Ini adalah senario yang tidak mungkin kerana kami percaya bahawa Beijing akan berusaha sebaik mungkin untuk menyelesaikan masalah ini kerana perlunya memberikan kestabilan untuk rakyat,” katanya dalam catatan strateginya hari ini.

Harga saham Evergrande Group telah turun 10 peratus pada Isnin kepada HK$2.28, paras terendah dalam lebih 11 tahun, berikutan kebimbangan bahawa syarikat itu mungkin tidak mempunyai tunai mencukupi untuk melunaskan obligasi pembayaran jangka pendeknya kepada pemberi pinjaman.

Dari awal tahun hingga hari ini, sahamnya telah jatuh 85 peratus dari HK$14.90 pada awal 2021.

Setakat 30 Jun 2021, Evergrande mempunyai hutang jangka pendek sebanyak 240 bilion renminbi (RM155.5 bilion) dan hutang jangka panjang 332 bilion renminbi (RM215.1 bilion).

Dengan 87 bilion tunai renminbi (tidak termasuk tunai terhad), syarikat itu berada dalam kedudukan hutang bersih sebanyak 485 bilion renminbi (RM314.3 bilion).

Dari segi pendedahan langsung kepada pasaran hartanah China untuk saham di bawah liputan AmInvestment Bank, hanya dua syarikat hartanah yang terdedah kepada pasaran hartanah republik itu, iaitu IOI Properties Group Bhd yang mempunyai pembangunan di Xiamen dan Sunway Bhd di Tianjin.

“Berdasarkan semakan kami, tiada satu pun pembangunan di sana membabitkan Evergrande. Baki nilai pembangunan kasar (GDV) IOI Properties Group dan Sunway di China juga adalah tidak signifikan iaitu masing-masing hanya 3.0 peratus dan 1.0 peratus, dari keseluruhan portfolio kumpulan mereka,” katanya.

Bagaimanapun, dalam jangka pendek, penjualan hartanah di China mungkin memperlahan akibat sentimen pembeli yang lemah.

AmInvestment Bank tidak menjangkakan apa-apa kesan terhadap bank-bank Malaysia memandangkan mereka memberi tumpuan terutamanya kepada Singapura, Indonesia dan Thailand.

“China bukanlah pasaran besar atau utama bagi bank-bank serantau. Oleh itu, kami tidak melihat risiko bagi bank Malaysia daripada kemungkiran bon Evergrande ini,” tambahnya.

Dalam perkembangan lain, AmInvestment Bank menurunkan sasaran FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) akhir tahun 2021 kepada 1,643 mata daripada 1,695 mata, dengan sasaran pendapatan harga dikurangkan kepada 15.6 kali.

“Diskaun harga kami mencerminkan pemulihan ke arah normalisasi walaupun tidak sepenuhnya ke tahap pra-pandemik dalam waktu terdekat,” katanya.

© New Straits Times Press (M) Bhd

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