Kayne Anderson's Rabil Sees Economic Hard Landing, Fed Cuts

And I do want to kind of talk about investment strategy at a time where, I mean things are stable, certainly a lot more stable than what they were a year ago, but there’s still a lot of dislocations out there. And I just want to know what kind of what’s your thought process is in navigating that. Our thought process is this is this is a time of dislocation and one that I think is going to take a while to work through. So we’re incredibly excited because we’ve actually built our platform for times just like this. So we want to be relevant in All in all cycles, but really where we want to be buying is times of dislocation and that’s the reason with intentionality that we built the real estate platform to invest. In inelastic demand sectors, so medical office, seniors, housing, student housing, Class B multifamily, often referred to as workforce. So you know when you know when the macro economy falters or enters a more difficult period of time. And I’d say we’re in one right now and I think this will be the case for kind of the next 24 months. It’ll be choppy at best. I’ve been in the hard landing camp for a while I I still sit there. Why on a hard landing we’ve had? This is the ninth time that we’ve had inverted an inverted yield curve since 1962. In seven of the eight previous times, only exception being 1967, we’ve had a recession. So there is a great deal of historical precedence for the fact that a recession follows an inverted yield curve. I also think that bank balance sheets are in a very precarious position at the moment. I do think that that means that I think effectively Powell eased rates last month by by essentially saying that the Fed was comfortable with a bigger balance sheet that was an effective ease. I do think that we will see two to three rate. So you didn’t interpret that what he said as hawkish, I did not, I I interpreted it as dovish and I think that it took the market a little bit of time to digest. But now we’ve seen sort of seven of eight up days. You’ve seen the 10 year treasury drop from 470 to four 4445. So I think the market digested what he said and I do think that he’s looking for a reason to ease. I I I think he understands that the bigger risk between price inflation and asset deflation is asset deflation because bank balance sheets right now have the greatest amount of unrealized securities losses that they have ever had in history. And they have 1.6 trillion. Well, not all banks, but there’s 1.6 trillion of real estate that comes due by year in 2026, most of that sitting on bank balance sheets, what I think he does not want to do. Is risk a contagion and have another financial crisis on his hands? And so I think you’re walking that fine line.