Robert F Kennedy Jr will hurt Trump’s White House bid more than Biden’s, poll finds

Robert F Kennedy Jr at a campaign event in Michigan on Sunday – Emily Elconin/Bloomberg

Robert F Kennedy Jr’s presence on the ballot will hurt Donald Trump more than Joe Biden in the 2024 US presidential election, according to a new poll.

The former president leads Mr Biden by two percentage points in a head-to-head race (46 per cent to 44 per cent) in an NBC News poll, but the predicted outcome of the election shifts when other candidates are included.

NBC’s data suggest the incumbent president ends up with a two-point advantage from a share of the nationwide vote, with Mr Biden at 39 per cent, Mr Trump at 37 per cent, Mr Kennedy at 13 per cent, Jill Stein at 3 per cent and at Cornel West 2 per cent.

The poll finds a greater share of Mr Trump’s voters (15 per cent) in the head-to-head race with Mr Biden (7 per cent) backing Mr Kennedy, who is running as an independent, in the expanded ballot.

Republican voters also view Mr Kennedy, the nephew of President John F Kennedy, much more favourably (40 per cent positive, 15 per cent negative) than Democratic voters do (16 per cent positive, 53 per cent negative).

“At this stage, his appeal looks to be more with Trump than Biden voters,” said Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster, who conducted the NBC News poll with Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster.

NBC’s data, gathered from 1,000 registered voters across the US, contrasts with other national polls that have suggested a larger third-party vote is more damaging to Mr Biden.

“There’s always two possibilities,” said Mr McInturff, attempting to explain the difference. “One, it’s an outlier. Or two, we’re going to be seeing more of this, and our survey is a harbinger of what’s to come.”

The Biden campaign has actively been trying to differentiate itself from Mr Kennedy, whose family are traditionally Democrats so could cause confusion among voters.

Mr Kennedy has been criticised in particular for his scepticism of Covid-19 vaccines.

Mr Biden last week held campaign events with other members of the Kennedy family who are endorsing him over their relative.

“I can only imagine how Donald Trump’s outrageous lies and behaviour would have horrified my father,” said Mr Kennedy’s sister Kerry Kennedy after formally backing Mr Biden.

When asked by CNN about her older brother’s candidacy, she said: “I don’t think that’s even a question we need to deal with because there’s only two people who are capable of getting 270 Electoral College votes. So, let’s talk about reality.”

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