Colts’ NFL Draft 1st round scenarios

Colts’ NFL Draft 1st round scenarios

Colts stay put, draft a defensive player with the #15 pick.

There are a lot of defensive players that would improve the Colts right away. You have cornerbacks like Quinyon Mitchell, Terrion Arnold, and Cooper DeJean. You also have edge-rushers like Laiatu Latu or Jared Verse, that would provide some much needed pass-rush from the edge. Any of those five players would be competing for a starting spot right away and would also elevate the ceiling the defense can reach. Keep in mind this is a unit that was among the worst in the NFL last season at preventing points (28th in scoring defense), and slightly below average when rushing the passer (23rd in pressure rate).

I do not think that the Colts need any help on offense, where the return of Jelani Woods, the improvement of Alec Pierce playing with a quarterback that is not afraid to throw the deep ball and has a cannon for an arm, and the development of slot receiver Josh Downs, coupled with franchise quarterback Anthony Richardson’s return from shoulder injury, will be more than enough to potentially field a top five offense in the NFL. Instead, any of the aforementioned players would help stabilize a unit that has been leaking points and would give defensive coordinator Gus Bradley some much needed blue-chip talent to work with.

Likeliness: 45%, this is my base case scenario

Colts double-down on offense, get another weapon for Shane Steichen at #15

This is a bit complicated because the players that the Colts would target for the offense are most likely going in the 7-12 range, but there is a possibility, albeit slim, that either Rome Odunze, Malik Nabers, or Brock Bowers inexplicably fall and are available for the Colts at #15. If that is the case then perhaps Ballard might be tempted to try and fix the defense with whatever resource is left, and give a proven offensive mastermind even more weapons.

Rome Odunze has the height and built you dream of in a wide receiver, with consistent production and no clear flaws to his game. Think of him perhaps as a MPJ 2.0, with a higher ceiling. Malik Nabers would be the perfect complement to MPJ, and could even play slot receiver. His versatility is a big plus, and his ability to generate consistent separation so easily will seamlessly translate to the NFL. Brock Bowers is the modern day prototypical tight end, and has everything one could want from that position. Since the Colts are already set at tight end, with Woods, Granson, Mallory, and even Mo Alie-Cox, this would be more of a luxury pick, but given how hard it is to find good tight ends and the question marks surrounding Jelani Woods’ harmstrings Ballard might be tempted to get him. In the end it all depends on whether either of the three drop to #15.

Likeliness: 10%, I don’t think Bowers, Odunze, or Nabers will fall all the way down to #15

Colts trade up and get any of the three mentioned above in that 7-12 range

Perhaps Ballard realizes that the offense is one playmaker away from becoming one of the most stacked units in the NFL, and decides to go against his usual MO and trade up several spots to get either of the three aforementioned offensive weapons. According to the trade value chart, the cost of said move would be #15, #82, and perhaps an extra late round pick. The possibility here is that this roster does not need quantity of solid players, but it needs more star power to elevate the team to the next level. By doing the trade Ballard would be sacrificing the opportunity to get extra defensive help with the third round pick. As mentioned, any of the trio would be welcome additions for the offense, but if the Colts do decide to trade up it might be for a different receiver…

Likeliness: 5%, I don’t think Ballard trades up there.

Colts trade up and get MHJ at #4

The splashy move, the storybook night for MHJ who gets to go to the team his father shined in, and Irsay gets his wish fulfilled, as the Colts get the best wide receiver prospect in recent history. Steichen gets a shiny new toy for what becomes unquestionably the most loaded offense in the NFL.

The cost for moving that up is not going to be cheap, as it would look something like #15, #46, and an extra second rounder from next year, with perhaps a little extra added, but the potential entertainment is just so high, and the pressure Ballard gets from Irsay might be just so much that it ends up happening. The new franchise quarterback leading the offense with the son of the Hall of Fame wide receiver that played his entire career on your franchise is just something movies are made of. The more I think about it the more that my heart wants it to happen, even though my brain knows that the cost to pay might not end up being worth it.

Likeliness: 15%, it is only that high because Irsay has made it clear that he wants this to happen, and might force Ballard’s hand.

Trade back

Ballard loves his draft picks, and has traded back to get more capital several times in the past, which is why trading back out of #15 would not be out of character of him. Perhaps with Nabers, Odunze, and Bowers gone, Ballard determines that there is not a defensive player worth taking at #15 and trades back into the later parts of the first round, where there is still plenty of talent on the defensive side available. This would be the most unpopular move among the fanbase, especially a fanbase wanting a splashy move, but so far trading back has worked every single time for CB, so why move away from it now?

Likeliness: 20%, the pressure from Irsay and the fans might dissuade Ballard from trading back once again, but I can still see it happening.

The Unexpected

The NFL Draft is known for being truly unpredictable so no-one truly knows what can happen. Will Ballard end up taking an offensive lineman? Will he trade the pick for a veteran player that becomes suddenly available? Will he take a punter to compete with Rigoberto Sanchez? Will he reach for a player supposed to go in Day 2? That is the beauty and excitement of the event.

Likeliness: 5%, and don’t worry, he is not using #15 on a punter.