New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Apr 10, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe (11) rounds third base in the eighth inning against the Miami Marlins at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees (10-3) and Cleveland Guardians (9-3) open a 3-game set Friday. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Yankees won 4-2 last season

After a 6-game homestand, the Yankees hit the road for 6 games beginning with a weekend series in Cleveland. New York, which was a (-208) favorite, fell 5-2 against the Miami Marlins Wednesday as RHP Marcus Stroman took the loss.

After beginning the season with 10 games on the road, Cleveland returned home this past week and took 2 of 3 from the Chicago White Sox. Guardians 1B Josh Naylor and C Bo Naylor each batted in a run in the 10th inning of Wednesday’s 7-6 Guardians victory — appropriately occurring on National Siblings Day.

Yankees at Guardians projected starters

RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco

Schmidt (0-0, 4.66 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.66 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 9 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 9-8 home victory vs. Toronto Blue Jays Saturday
• 2023 road stats: 5-3, 5.23 ERA (72 1/3 IP, 42 ER), 71 K in 15 starts
• 2023 vs. Cleveland: 0-0, 3.24 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 3 BB, 7 K in 2 starts

Carrasco (0-0, 4.50 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 8 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 3-1 victory at Minnesota Twins Saturday
• Fourth all-time in strikeouts (1,314) in Cleveland history
• Career vs. Yankees: 5-5, 4.01 ERA (60 2/3 IP, 27 ER), 65 K in 10 starts and 3 relief appearances

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Yankees at Guardians odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Yankees -138 (bet $138 to win $100) | Guardians +118 (bet $100 to win $118)
• Run line (RL): Yankees -1.5 (+122) | Guardians +1.5 (-146)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Yankees at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

New York 4, Cleveland 3

Moneyline

PASS.

I am predicting that the Yankees (-138) will emerge victorious, but it would not surprise me if they faltered again after handing Miami only its 2nd win Wednesday. Bet the run line and/or total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

BET CLEVELAND +1.5 (-146).

The Naylor bros drove in 5 of the Guardians’ 7 runs in Wednesday’s win over Chicago, while LF Steven Kwan went 7 for 14 in the series. Guardians 2B Andres Gimenez has reached base in all but 1 game this year, while 3B Jose Ramirez and Kwan have only been left off the basepaths in 2 games.

Expect Cleveland to generate enough offense to support Carrasco, and the Guardians pen with its league-leading 1.29 ERA should be able to minimize the damage from the Yankees heavy hitters.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8.5 (-110).

The Yankees bullpen has been solid as well, as they sport the 5th-lowest team ERA (2.40) in all of MLB. Schmidt’s stats in his 1st couple of starts were not great, but his Stuff+, according to Fangraphs, rates in the top 25% among players who have pitched at least 5 innings.

It’s a small sample size but an indication that the 28-year-old is capable of fooling a Cleveland lineup that enters Friday with the lowest hard contact percentage (22.5%) in the AL.

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This article originally appeared on USA Today Sportsbookwire: New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions