NCAA Tournament Bracketology: Gonzaga 'first team out' in latest ESPN predictions

The Gonzaga Bulldogs have a lot of work to do between now and Selection Sunday on March 17.

After a big win over the San Francisco Dons on Thursday, the Bulldogs (14-5, 5-1 WCC) are still firmly on the bubble to make the 2024 NCAA Tournament according to the latest ESPN Bracketology update from Joe Lunardi. Gonzaga is “the first team out” of the projected 68-team field, while rival Saint Mary’s is projected to earn the West Coast Conference’s automatic bid as the WCC Tournament champions.

The Gaels (16-6, 6-0 WCC) helped themselves with a dominant 76-28 win over Pacific on Thursday, which moved them up to No. 18 in the NET Rankings. Gonzaga only moved up one spot to No. 27 in the NET after earning a Quad 2 victory. It goes to show that the margin of victory matters (even if the NET itself disclaims that sentiment), but the rankings also indicate that the margin for error is small and that there’s a long road ahead for the Bulldogs if they’re to go dancing for the 25th consecutive season.

According to Bart Torvik, Gonzaga now has a 75.5% chance to make the NCAA Tournament, up from 74.4% prior to Thursday. The Zags are projected to earn a spot as a No. 10 seed if they can snag two Quad 1 wins before the end of the regular season. As it stands currently, the Bulldogs have four more Quad 1 games on the schedule, three of which are on the road — home against Saint Mary’s (Feb. 3), at Kentucky (Feb. 10), at San Francisco (Feb. 29) and at Saint Mary’s (March 2). There will be more opportunities to get quality wins in the WCC Tournament, which will likely be how Gonzaga gets into the Big Dance.

Regarding the updated ESPN Bracketology, Lunardi has Purdue, North Carolina, UConn and Houston on the 1-seed line. The Boilermakers and Huskies are tied with the most Quad 1 wins with seven apiece, while the Tar Heels stand as the only high-major program with an undefeated record in conference play. The Cougars lead the Big 12 with five Quad 1 victories.

The Big 12 leads the country with nine teams slated to make the NCAA Tournament on ESPN’s Bracketology, followed by the SEC and Big East with seven representatives each. The Mountain West holds strong with five potential bids, which is more than the Pac-12 (four) and ACC (three).