Scout’s Analysis: Revisiting the Filip Hronek trade, evolution with Canucks

Oh what the difference a year makes.

On March 1 of 2023, the Vancouver Canucks acquired defenceman Filip Hronek from the Detroit Red Wings for first- and second-round draft picks. Days from the deadline, it was a curiously timed move for a Vancouver team that was 24-31-5 and nowhere close to the playoff picture, 19 points behind the wild card.

Vancouver was well down the path of missing the playoffs for a third year in a row and the addition of Hronek tightened their cap picture all the more. For a team that just didn’t seem to be clicking — and had also just recently traded out captain Bo Horvat — the Hronek deal did add a 25-year-old defenceman, but at the cost of valued cap space and a mid-first-round pick.

Much of the discussion around that trade and the timing of it was framed around asset management. The Canucks had surprisingly extended J.T. Miller’s contract before Horvat, then traded Horvat to the Islanders for a package that included a first-round pick many in the Vancouver market who called for a rebuild valued. The Hronek deal, then, moved New York’s pick right back out of the organization and would make it more difficult to maneuver around the cap in the off-season.

But in 2023-24, head coach Rick Tocchet has been able to bring all the pieces of the Canucks together and they’ve fully bought into what he’s selling. And what we now have is one of the best stories of the season, as the Canucks sit atop the league with Hronek logging big minutes as the perfect complement to partner Quinn Hughes.

With Hronek on the ice, the Canucks have scored 65 per cent of all goals at 5-on-5, which is eighth-best in the league among all blueliners with at least 500 minutes played. And now the Canucks will have another big decision on their hands.

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This summer Hronek will be an RFA with a qualifying offer of $5.28 million. But if they want to extend him for multiple years and lock in Hronek as a top-pair player, Vancouver will have to pay him more than that. How high should they feel comfortable going?

And where in the list of priorities does re-signing Hronek for the long-term rank? Surely Vancouver’s most pressing contract is Elias Pettersson, who himself is an RFA this summer and one year from being UFA eligible. Recently acquired Elias Lindholm also is a UFA with a connection to president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford, who may want to keep him part of the plan.

On defence, Hronek probably is the top priority to keep around, but it’s important to note that the Canucks have a lot of work ahead of them at the position. When re-signing Hronek or Pettersson or anyone else, we have to keep in mind that Vancouver only has three defencemen under contract beyond this season, including depth defender Noah Juulsen. Whether they’ll re-sign any of their four pending UFA defencemen, look to promote from within, or work the trade/free agent market, Vancouver is looking at the prospect of rebuilding the bulk of its blue line.

Hronek has been a great fit here and is definitely due a raise — but how will that fit into the wider team cap structure?

With more on how Hronek has grown in Vancouver and what his next contract could look like, we turn to our scout Jason Bukala…

SCOUT’S ANALYSIS

The Vancouver Canucks are in the midst of a fantastic season. The entire group has an understanding of how their coaching staff wants them to play the game and they are executing at a high level. The results speak for themselves: Vancouver is 36-12-6 entering Thursday’s game versus Detroit. All 36 victories have come in regulation or overtime. Incredibly, they haven’t recorded a win in the shootout yet.

Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser and Thatcher Demko have earned headlines this year as, arguably, the most important players on the Canucks’ roster. But there’s another player who has been equally important to the team’s success…

When Vancouver traded for defenceman Filip Hronek last March, I was one of the analysts who was puzzled by the timing of the deal. It didn’t feel like the Canucks were in a position to trade out a first-round pick (which Detroit used to select defenceman Axel Sandin Pellikka) given the state of their group at the time. I liked Hronek as a player. The timing just didn’t seem right.

Fast forward to today, though, and Hronek is in the midst of a career year and playing a massive role for Vancouver.

What has changed with Hronek’s game? Is he playing more, or less, for the Canucks? Did his numbers look so relatively poor in Detroit due to the fact they were in the early-to-mid stages of a rebuild?

Consider the following:

• Between the years 2019 and 2022, Hronek played 199 games for the Red Wings and produced 16 goals and 79 assists.

• His plus/minus rating was minus-85.

• He averaged 23 minutes of ice time and was deployed in all situations.

• Before Hronek was dealt to Vancouver, Detroit was improving as a team. Hronek’s statistics were also improving.

• In his last 60 games played before the trade to Vancouver, Hronek posted nine goals and 29 assists with a plus-8 rating. He was also credited with 97 hits.

• Hronek was playing with more detail without sacrificing offence.

At this stage of my analysis, I have to give credit to the Canucks’ pro scouting staff, especially Derek Clancey (who’s now with the Toronto Maple Leafs as their assistant general manager, player personnel) for monitoring Hronek and advising Patrik Allvin and Jim Rutherford that the timing was right to make the trade.

Since coming to Vancouver, Hronek has become an important part of this fantastic season.

• Hronek is still logging the same amount of ice time he did in Detroit. He’s averaging 23:37 per game in Vancouver and being used in all situations.

• Quinn Hughes is an all-world talent, but Hronek makes him an even better player. Is there a better defensive pairing in the entire NHL? If there is I would like to see the proof.

• Hronek’s stat line reads four goals, 37 assists and a plus-37 rating. Hughes has contributed 12 goals, 54 assists and a plus-36 rating.

DETAIL = RESULTS

Hronek is the kind of player who will always provide offence. It’s his most elite element. What makes him a more complete player is the awareness, detail and execution he is playing with in Vancouver.

I’ve analyzed several of Hronek’s games in a Wings uniform compared to his time with the Canucks. The following two clips provide visuals on the difference in Hronek’s overall detail:

• The first clip shows Hronek defending in his zone against the Pittsburgh Penguins when he was in Detroit. He’s sort of engaged below the goal line. He eventually corals a puck in the left circle before skating the play out of his zone. Things break down when he makes a soft play in the neutral zone. The rest of the clip speaks for itself.

Hronek’s lack of detail in neutral ice resulted in him chasing the play back into his zone and the puck eventually ended up in the back of the net.

• The second clip demonstrates how the Canucks strategize intercepting zone exits from their opponents.

Hronek identifies where the Blackhawks are likely to break the puck out when they get possession. He moves from right to left to disrupt the break out and front his check. Once the puck ends up in the neutral zone, Hughes has already “switched” to the right side. Hronek outlets to Hughes and the Canucks transition to offence quickly, before Dakota Joshua completes the play going to the net.

This illustrates the state of the Canucks’ team game. They play with detail and purpose and Hronek has bought into the structure.

NEXT CONTRACT

Hronek is a pending restricted free agent with a qualifying offer set at $5.28 million.

The reality is that Hronek is asserting himself as a first-pairing defenceman who provides more than just offence.

I’m not sure where things will go in the off-season, but if the Canucks want to get a multi-year extension done with Hronek it feels like he will be looking for something in the neighbourhood of $7-7.5 million per year. That kind of salary slots him below what Hughes is making ($7.85 million), while giving him the bump in pay he definitely deserves.

The Canucks have some big decisions to make in the near future. Elias Pettersson is due for a huge raise and every defenceman, outside of Hughes, Carson Soucy and Noah Juulsen, are either pending UFA or RFA this off-season.

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