Is India's economy back on track? Here's what to expect from Q2 GDP numbers

Is India's economy back on track? Here's what to expect from Q2 GDP numbers

India’s economy witnessed a sharp recovery after the second Covid-19 wave battered growth earlier in the year. Official GDP data to be released later in the day is expected to show that growth remained steady during the second quarter of the ongoing financial year.

In the first quarter of FY22, the country’s GDP growth accelerated to a record 20.1 per cent on the back of improvement in the pandemic situation, aided by rising vaccination and reopening of the economy. A low base also helped growth accelerate sharply during the first quarter.

The GDP data for the second quarter is expected to show that India’s economic recovery gained momentum during the second quarter during the July-September period due to higher consumer spending.

Read | India’s GDP grows at over 20% in Q1FY22, highest ever quarterly expansion

Most analysts expect India’s GDP to grow in the range of 7-9 per cent during the second quarter of the year. Ratings agency ICRA has predicted GDP growth during the second quarter at 7. 9 per cent, citing a pick-up in industrial and service sector activity after the second Covid-19 wave. Rising vaccination coverage also played a key role in providing a boost to economic growth, according to the agency.

Another brokerage, UBS Securities, pegged GDP growth during the second quarter at 8-9 per cent. While UBS said India’s growth has showed an upward trend during the period, it has indicated that the recovery has been mixed and not broad-based.

SBI Research recently suggested that India’s GDP is expected to grow 8.1 per cent during the second quarter. In its note, SBI Research said the country’s 8.1 per cent GDP in Q2FY22 is the highest growth among all other major economies.

Meanwhile, a survey of 44 economists conducted by news agency Reuters indicated that India’s economy grew at 8.4 per cent during the second quarter of 2022. It may be noted that India’s economy contracted 7.5 per cent during the same period last year as the pandemic-induced lockdown ravaged economic growth.

While the situation has drastically changed this year, India continues to face several challenges on the economic front, including rising inflation, lack of employment opportunities, rising wealth gap, possible rise in interest rates and risk arising due to the new Omicron variant of coronavirus.

Also Read | Indian GDP likely boosted in July-Sept as lockdowns lifted: Report

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