Employment slowdown to hit blue collar workers hardest

Finding a job is getting harder for Australian workers as the labour market reaches a turning point.

Blue collar fields can expect a sharper slowdown in employment than white collar and human services workforces, Deloitte Access Economics predicts.

For 2023/24, the economists said the blue collar workforce was tracking towards above-usual growth of 2.7 per cent, or 99,200 workers.

The pace of growth is then expected to stall in 2024/25 to just 0.3 per cent, or 10,000 workers.

White collar fields are expected to be more resilient but still ease from a 2.5 per cent lift (128,600 workers) in 2023/24, to 1.5 per cent (78,200 workers) in 2024/25.

“White collar employment growth is expected to be supported by knowledge-based industries such as professional services and health care, which are expected to perform well during the year ahead,” the report said.

Despite the more upbeat assessment, employment growth in white collar professions is still tipped to have its weakest financial year since the pandemic.

Looking over the next decade, both the the human services and the white collar workforces are expected to outpace blue collar domains due to the ongoing shift towards services and knowledge-based work.

Blue collar job growth is expected to be outpaced in a shift to services and knowledge-based work. (Tracey Nearmy/AAP PHOTOS)

After a bumper few years for the labour market overall, Deloitte Access Economics partner David Rumbens said the “dial had shifted”.

The December and January labour force data was subdued, with just 500 jobs added to the economy last month.

“In the second half of 2023 many employers have changed their attitudes around workforce, and some are now actively taking steps to right size their workforces for the subdued economic conditions of the moment,” Mr Rumbens said.

The economists have the jobless rate gradually increasing to 4.5 per cent by the end of the 2024 calendar year, amounting to an extra 108,400 people joining the ranks of the unemployed.