Inside the battle for the Blue Wall

People will vote tactically in the 2024 general election to oust the Conservative government on a scale not seen since 1997, Liberal Democrat insiders have predicted.

Sir Ed Davey’s party are to push ahead with their strategy to take 80 seats in the “Blue Wall”, despite Labour also staking a claim for Tory strongholds in southern England.

Following last week’s local and mayoral election results, Labour’s election chief effectively tore up the unspoken Lib-Lab pact of focusing on their own list of target seats by declaring that the party would also pile its resources into Blue Wall constituencies.

Pat McFadden said Labour now “controls twice as many councils in the south-east as the Tories” and the “story of parts of the blue wall turning red is under-noticed”.

And Labour insiders revealed to i that the old slogan – coined under Tony Blair and revived by Jeremy Corbyn – of “for the many not the few” could now be reworked to declare that the party was “for everyone” as they scale up their ambitions beyond the Red Wall and Scotland.

But Lib Dem strategists were dismissive of Sir Keir Starmer’s election chief’s comments, saying they would not be “distracted” from their Blue Wall campaign and that “other parties can do what they want”.

One said: “We have a very clear strategy to go for Lib Dem-Conservative targets. There are 80 seats across the country where we are in second place, in those seats our activists are working incredibly hard.”

Labour’s vote had been “tiny” in some Blue Wall areas where local elections were held last week, the Lib Dem strategist added.

“People want to vote for us. There is certainly a degree of anyone but the Conservatives going on – everyone understands that.

“We are the best-placed to beat the Conservatives in those 80 seats. Other political parties can do what they want – that’s democracy, that’s fine.

“The election is going to be about who is best placed to get the Conservatives out of power. We are a big part of answering the question: how do you get the Tories out.”

Labour and Lib Dem insiders deny there is even an unspoken pact between the parties to hold off in seats where the other is in second place.

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The Lib Dem official said the public “understands” how tactical voting works, adding: “The arithmetic is very clear. In those seats where we are in second place to the Conservatives, Labour are far behind.

“What we are buoyed by as a party is the degree of tactical voting that is taking place – not seen since 1997.”

The Lib Dems are hopeful of winning in places like Winchester and Cheltenham, where the Tories are defending majorities of less than 1,000. But they also have their sights set on Wokingham, where Sir John Redwood has a majority of more than 7,000, and Tunbridge Wells, with a Conservative majority of more than 14,000.

McFadden told the Guardian that Labour had made local council gains in areas like Rushmoor, Crawley, Swindon, Thurrock, Basildon and Southend.

In all of those corresponding parliamentary constituencies, Labour are in second place and the Lib Dems are trailing far behind.

However in some of those seats the Tories have majorities well over 10,000. In South Basildon and East Thurrock, for example, the party is defending a majority of more than 19,000 – meaning Sir Keir would have to win a landslide to take the seat.